Future Precipitation Extremes in China under Climate Change and Their Physical Quantification Based on a Regional Climate Model and CMIP5 Model Simulations

作     者：Peihua QIN Zhenghui XIE Jing ZOU Shuang LIU Si CHEN Peihua QIN;Zhenghui XIE;Jing ZOU;Shuang LIU;Si CHEN

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Institute of Oceanographic InstrumentationQilu University of Technology(Shandong Academy of Sciences)Qingdao 266001China Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface ProcessesInstitute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第38卷第3期

页      面：460-479页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：`This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2019YFA0606903) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075162) the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA23090102) 

主　　题：precipitation extremes regional climate model CMIP5 models 

摘      要：The atmospheric water holding capacity will increase with temperature according to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and affects *** rates of change in future precipitation extremes are quantified with changes in surface air *** extremes in China are determined for the 21st century in six simulations using a regional climate model,RegCM4,and 17 global climate models that participated in ***,we assess the performance of the CMIP5 models and RCM runs in their simulation of extreme precipitation for the current period(RF:1982-2001).The CMIP5 models and RCM results can capture the spatial variations of precipitation extremes,as well as those based on observations:OBS and *** extremes over four subregions in China are predicted to increase in the mid-future(MF:2039-58)and far-future(FF:2079-98)relative to those for the RF period based on both the CMIP5 ensemble mean and RCM ensemble *** secular trends in the extremes of the CMIP5 models are predicted to increase from 2008 to 2058,and the RCM results show higher interannual variability relative to that of the CMIP5 ***,we quantify the increasing rates of change in precipitation extremes in the MF and FF periods in the subregions of China with the changes in surface air ***,based on the water vapor equation,changes in precipitation extremes in China for the MF and FF periods are found to correlate positively with changes in the atmospheric vertical wind multiplied by changes in surface specific humidity(significant at the p0.1 level).