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疾病监测

作者：徐建国

出版周期：月刊

出版社：中国疾病预防控制中心

医学刊物。主要刊登全国35种法定报告传染病的疫情及其他发病情况，作出动态分析及预测，介绍疾病预防工作经验、研究成果，提高疾病监测工作水平。

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Identification of a detailed function list for public health emergency management using three qualitative methods

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Chinese Medical Journal 2007年第21期120卷 1908-1913页

作者： HU Guo-qing RAO Ke-qin SUN Zhen-qiu Department of Epidemiology and health Statistics School of Public Health Central South University Changsha 410078 China Centre for health Statistics and Information Ministry of Health of China Beijing 100044 China

Background At present, many administrators lack a theoretica health emergencies. This study developed a detailed function building the management systems scientifically. guide to build management systems to cope with public list for public health emergency management to help Methods The five steps in this study including literature review, semistructured interviews with experts, focus group, Delphi study and focus group were conducted to develop the detailed list of functions. Results An initial list of 25 functions with 188 items was formed through literature review. The list was reduced to 10 functions with 57 items by semistructured interviews with experts and focus group. Next, all these 57 items reached the consensus through one-round Delphi study. Some revisions of the consensus were done by the same focus group. Conclusion The final 10 functions with 57 items could be used as a guide for most countries during their building of a public health emergency management system.

关键词： public health emergencies interview focus groups Delphi technique

public health preparedness and responses to the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic in South Asia:a situation and policy analysis

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Global health Journal 2020年第4期4卷 121-132页

作者： Amitabha Sarkar Guangqi Liu Yinzi Jin Zheng Xie Zhi-Jie Zheng Centre of Social Medicine and Community health School of Social Sciences(Building-II)Jawaharlal Nehru UniversityNew Mehrauli RoadNew Delhi 110067India Department of Global health School of Public HealthPeking University38 Xueyuan RoadHaidian DistrictBeijing 100191China Institute for Global health Peking University38 Xueyuan RoadHaidian DistrictBeijing 100191China

Like rest of the world,the South Asian region is facing enormous challenges with the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic.The socio-economic context of the eight South Asian countries is averse to any longterm lockdown program,but the region still observed stringent lockdown close to two months.This paper analyzed major measures in public health preparedness and responses in those countries in the pandemic.The research was based on a situation analysis to discuss appropriate plan for epidemic preparedness,strategies for prevention and control measures,and adequate response management mechanism.Based on the data from March 21 to June 26,2020,it appeared lockdown program along with other control measures were not as effective to arrest the exponential growth of fortnightly COVID-19 cases in Afghanistan,Bangladesh,India,Nepal and Pakistan.However,Bhutan,Maldives and Sri Lanka have been successfully limiting the spread of the disease.The in-depth analysis of prevention and control measures espoused densely populated context of South Asia needs community-led intervention strategy,such as case containment,in order to reverse the growing trend,and adopt the policy of mitigation instead of suppression to formulate COVID-19 action plan.On the other hand,mechanism for response management encompassed a four-tier approach of governance to weave community-led local bodies with state,national and international governance actors for enhancing the countries’emergency operation system.It is concluded resource-crunch countries in South Asia are unable to cope with the disproportionate demand of capital and skilled health care workforce at the time of the pandemic.Hence,response management needs an approach of governance maximization instead of resource maximization.The epidemiologic management of population coupled with suitable public health prevention and control measures may be a more appropriate strategy to strike a balance between economy and population health during the time of pandemic.

关键词： Coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19 Pandemic Intervention strategy Epidemiological management public health South Asia

Differences and determinants in access to essential public health services in China： a case study with hypertension people and under-sixes as target population

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Chinese Medical Journal 2014年第9期127卷 1626-1632页

作者： Niu Hongli Tian Miaomiao Ma Anning Wang Chunping Zhang Liang School of Medicine and health Management Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan Hubei 430030 China Center for Policy and health Management Chinese Academy oI Medical Sciences Beijing 100020 China School of public health Weifang Medical University Weifang Shandong 261053 China

Background Since 2009, health reform had launched in China and essential public health services were provided for all residents to ensure service equity and accessibility, and to achieve sustained population-wide health improvement. This study aimed to investigate the differences and determinants among populations with different characteristics access to essential public health services in China, especially hypertension people and children aged 0-6 years. Methods A cross-sectional study with socio-demographic data analysis was undertaken to estimate distribution characteristics of receiving essential public health services of hypertension patients and children. Regular follow-ups and effective blood pressure control reflected the effective management for hypertension patients, and for children, public services provided were vaccination on schedule and regular physical check-up. Logistic regression was used to determine the predictors for effective management. Results A total of 1 505 hypertension patients and 749 children were involved; 39.14% of hypertension participants could control their blood pressure in the normal range, and the rate in urban areas （43.61%） was higher than that in rural （31.88%）. And 34.68% of them could receive more than 4 times follow-ups by the medical technician. Of 754 children, 79.84% could receive the periodic physical examination and 98.40% had vaccinated regularly. Children living in rural areas were more likely to have regular check-ups （83.96%） and regular vaccination （nearly 99%）. Overall, geographic location and education level were the determinants of people access to essential public health services. Conclusions Implementation of the health reform since 2009 has headed China＇s public health system in the right direction and promoted the improvement of public health system development. Our study highlights the growing needs for more public health services in China, and China＇s public health system needs to be greatly improved in terms of its quality and accessibility.

关键词： public health individual difference epidemiologic determinants

INTEGRATING COMPLEX SYSTEM DYNAMICS OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA WITH A MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR EVALUATING public health STRATEGIES

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2013年第3期22卷 319-339页

作者： Ozgur M ARAZ College of public health University of Nebraska Medical CenterUSA

Recent developments in computational sciences and computer modeling have allowed emergency preparedness exercises to include simulation models as supporting tools. These simulation models are generally built for predicting temporal and geographic patterns of disease spread. However sole use of simulation models in exercise design falls short in terms of incorporating policy decision makers＇ preferences into decision-making processes. In this paper, a general framework for exercising public health preparedness plans with a decision support system is presented to integrate estimation of key epidemiological parameters with a system dynamics model of an outbreak. A multi-criteria decision making framework, an Analytical Hierarchy Process model, is then developed and integrated with the simulation model to help public health policy makers prioritize their response goals and evaluate mitigation strategies in a table-top exercise environment.

关键词： Multi-criteria decision making analytical hierarchy process public health preparedness exercises pandemic influenza modeling complex systems

Promising of spatial-temporal model in public health

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Chinese Medical Journal 2009年第3期122卷 349-350页

作者： JIA Zhong-wei LI Xiao-wen WANG Wei CHENG Shi-ming School of public health and Family Medicine Capital MedicalUniversity Beijing 100069 China Institute of Remote Sensing Applications Chinese Academy otSciences P.O.Box9718 Beijing 100101 China Institute of Remote Sensing Applications Chinese Academy ofSciences P.O.Box9718 Beijing 100101 China National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease control and Prevention Beijing 100050 China

Investigating the transmission of infectious diseases, predicting the epidemic trend of an infectious disease and evaluating the effects of control measures are the continuing subject of public health participators. In recent years the spatial-temporal model has been proposed as a powerful tool to get this information from large incomplete and insufficiently general monitoring data.

关键词： spatial-temporal model public health geographic information systems

Uncertainty in public health models treated by differential inclusions

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International Journal of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing 2020年第4期11卷 224-236页

作者： Stanislaw Raczynski Faculty of Engineering Universidad Panamericana Augusto Rodin No.49803920 Mexico CityD.F.Mexico

An application of differential inclusions in the epidemic spread models is presented.Some mostly used epidemic models are discussed here,and a brief survey of epidemic modeling is given.Most of the models are some modifications of the Susceptible–Infected–Recovered model.Simple simulations are carried out.Then,we consider the influence of some uncertain parameters.It is pointed out that the presence of some fluctuating model parameters can be treated by differential inclusions.The solution to such differential inclusion is given in the form of reachable sets for model variables.Here,we focus on the differential inclusion application rather than the model construction.

关键词： Modeling simulation epidemics public health sensitivity differential inclusions.

Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning for Effective public health Management

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2021年第3期66卷 2265-2282页

作者： Fahad Ahmad Saleh N.Almuayqil Mamoona Humayun Shahid Naseem Wasim Ahmad Khan Kashaf Junaid Department of Computer Sciences Kinnaird College for WomenLahore54000Pakistan Department of Information Systems College of Computer and Information SciencesJouf UniversitySakakaAljouf72341Saudi Arabia Division of Computer Science&Information Technology University of EducationLahore54000Pakistan School of Computer Science National College of Business Administration&EconomicsLahore54000Pakistan Department of Clinical Laboratory Sciences College of Applied Medical SciencesJouf UniversitySakakaAljouf72341Saudi Arabia

COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected nearly every country in the world.At present,sustainable development in the area of public health is considered vital to securing a promising and prosperous future for humans.However,widespread diseases,such as COVID-19,create numerous challenges to this goal,and some of those challenges are not yet defined.In this study,a Shallow Single-Layer Perceptron Neural Network(SSLPNN)and Gaussian Process Regression(GPR)model were used for the classification and prediction of confirmed COVID-19 cases in five geographically distributed regions of Asia with diverse settings and environmental conditions:namely,China,South Korea,Japan,Saudi Arabia,and Pakistan.Significant environmental and non-environmental features were taken as the input dataset,and confirmed COVID-19 cases were taken as the output dataset.A correlation analysis was done to identify patterns in the cases related to fluctuations in the associated variables.The results of this study established that the population and air quality index of a region had a statistically significant influence on the cases.However,age and the human development index had a negative influence on the cases.The proposed SSLPNN-based classification model performed well when predicting the classes of confirmed cases.During training,the binary classification model was highly accurate,with a Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of 0.91.Likewise,the results of the regression analysis using the GPR technique with Matern 5/2 were highly accurate(RMSE=0.95239)when predicting the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in an area.However,dynamic management has occupied a core place in studies on the sustainable development of public health but dynamic management depends on proactive strategies based on statistically verified approaches,like Artificial Intelligence(AI).In this study,an SSLPNN model has been trained to fit public health associated data into an appropriate class,allowing GPR to predict the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in an area based on the given

关键词： public health sustainable development artificial intelligence SARSCoV-2 shallow single-layer perceptron neural network binary classification gaussian process regression

How Attitudes towards Air Pollution May Impact public health: A Case Study of Almaty, Kazakhstan

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2023年第7期14卷 583-601页

作者： Alua Bekbossynova Dinissa Duvanova Niko Jones Kate Lyden Tess McGinley Hannah Moss Lehigh University Bethlehem USA Department of International Relations Lehigh University Bethlehem USA

Using an original public opinion survey, we study public attitudes and behaviors toward air pollution in Almaty, Kazakhstan. In the health Belief Model (HBM) framework previously used to understand an individual’s health decision-making, we evaluate citizens’ awareness of the poor air quality, their perception of risk, and their willingness to devote time and resources to reduce their air pollution exposure. We find that although citizens are aware of the gravity and general harms of air pollution, they significantly underestimate their individual health risks, and, as a result, often engage in daily routines that exacerbate their exposure to pollution. We find that behaviors increasing the risk of pollution exposure are related to the underlying beliefs about personal health risks, self-efficacy, and material and economic limitations. This means that treating pollution as an individual health problem rather than social issue in public discourse may promote behaviors reducing exposure and improving personal and public health outcomes.

关键词： HBM Air Pollution Environment public Opinion public health Kazakhstan Almaty

Radio-Medicine and public health in Rural Ghana

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Journal of Biosciences and Medicines 2022年第4期10卷 181-192页

作者： Abena Ansomaa Debrah Wiafe Clement Tetteh Narh Florence Kuukyi Paul Adjei Kwakwa Department of Physician Assistantship Faculty of Medical Sciences Presbyterian University College Ghana Agogo Ghana Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public Health University of Health and Allied Sciences Hohoe Ghana Accra Metropolitan Assembly Accra Ghana University of Energy and Natural Resources Sunyani Ghana

Radio is know-how that comes with low manufacturing costs, and low infrastructure costs and its marginal cost of distribution is very low which is close to zero. This study was conducted to examine the rate at which radios advertise medical services and products;the factors that promote the patronage of radio-medicine and evaluate the effects of radio-medicine on people who patronize it. The study took place at Agogo by interviewing 50 people belonging to 10 different professional groups as follows: Farmers, Drivers, shopkeepers, tailors/seamstresses, teachers, hairdressers, barbers, market women, students and the unemployed. Through SPSS, the data was analyzed and the result indicated that 44.0% listen to radio once a day, 14.0% listen every hour, and 42.0% listen all day. On the reasons for patronizing radio-medicine, 24% bought per testimonies shared from others, 12% said it is easy to patronize, 12.0% do that for affordability and effectiveness, 8.0% said it is good, 4.0% were highly convinced by suppliers, 4.0% patronized because there are no side effects, 12.0% were for just trials, 10.0% said there is no time to go to the hospital, 8.0% did so because they had minor conditions and 6.0% patronized for first aid and relieve of symptoms. In addition, 68.0% agreed that the medicine worked for them as expected but 32.0% agreed that the medicine did not work as expected. It was concluded that most people listen to radio all day and most of them participate, in medicines advertised on the radio, because of testimonies shared by others. Even-though majority of the respondents thought they could be affected they did not care about it. Recommendations have been made to the Ministry of health to regulate radio-medicine and its patronage and also for further research by research institutions.

关键词： Radio Medicine public health Rural Advertisement