INTEGRATING COMPLEX SYSTEM DYNAMICS OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA WITH A MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR EVALUATING PUBLIC HEALTH STRATEGIES

作     者：Ozgur M ARAZ 

作者机构：College of Public HealthUniversity of Nebraska Medical CenterUSA 

出 版 物：《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》 (系统科学与系统工程学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2013年第22卷第3期

页      面：319-339页

核心收录：

学科分类：0711[理学-系统科学] 0810[工学-信息与通信工程] 1205[管理学-图书情报与档案管理] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 07[理学] 0802[工学-机械工程] 071101[理学-系统理论] 0811[工学-控制科学与工程] 10[医学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 

基　　金：National Science Foundation, NSF, (-9628184) Bibliographical Society of Canada, BSC 

主　　题：Multi-criteria decision making analytical hierarchy process public health preparedness exercises pandemic influenza modeling complex systems 

摘      要：Recent developments in computational sciences and computer modeling have allowed emergency preparedness exercises to include simulation models as supporting tools. These simulation models are generally built for predicting temporal and geographic patterns of disease spread. However sole use of simulation models in exercise design falls short in terms of incorporating policy decision makers＇ preferences into decision-making processes. In this paper, a general framework for exercising public health preparedness plans with a decision support system is presented to integrate estimation of key epidemiological parameters with a system dynamics model of an outbreak. A multi-criteria decision making framework, an Analytical Hierarchy Process model, is then developed and integrated with the simulation model to help public health policy makers prioritize their response goals and evaluate mitigation strategies in a table-top exercise environment.