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heavy rainfall Associated with a Monsoon Depression in South China:Structure Analysis

Acta meteorologica Sinica 2008年第1期22卷 51-65页

作者：蒋建莹江吉喜布亚林刘年庆 National Satellite Meteorological Center Special Meteorological Observatory of Henan Province

A heavy rainfall associated with the deepening of a monsoon depression happened in the summer of 2005. This process was first diagnostically analyzed and the 3D structure of the monsoon depression was discussed~ then this structure was compared with those of the monsoon depression in South Asia and the low vortex in the Meiyu front. The results showed that the heavy rainfall directly resulted from a monsoon depression in South China~ and the large-scale environment provided a favorable background for the deepening of the monsoon depression. The 3D structure of the monsoon depression was as follows. In the horizontal direction, there existed a convective cloud band to the south of the monsoon depression, which lay in a convectively instable area, with a relatively strong ascending motion in the mid and low levels of the troposphere, and the ascending motion matched well with a moist tongue, a convergence area, and a band of positive vorticity in the mid and low levels of the troposphere. In the vertical direction, the depression had an obviously cyclonic circulation in the mid and low levels of the troposphere, but no circulation from above 300 hPa. The monsoon depression corresponded to convergence and positive vorticity in the low levels, but to divergence and negative vorticity in the upper levels. The upward draft of the depression could reach the upper levels of the troposphere in the west of the depression, while the descending motion lay in the east. There was a low-level jet to the south of the depression, while the upper-level jet was not obvious. The depression was vertically warm in the upper levels and cold in the low levels, and the axis of the depression tilted southeastward with height, whose characteristics were different not only from the monsoon depression in South Asia but also from the low vortex in the Meiyu front.

关键词： monsoon depression structure heavy rainfall

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heavy rainfall Ensemble Prediction:Initial Condition Perturbation vs Multi-Physics Perturbation

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2009年第1期23卷 53-67页

作者：陈静薛纪善 National Meteorological Center Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Mesoscale ensemble is an encouraging technology for improving the accuracy of heavy rainfall predictions. Occurrences of heavy rainfall are closely related to convective instability and topography. In mid-latitudes, perturbed initial fields for medium-range weather forecasts are often configured to focus on the baroclinic instability rather than the convective instability. Thus, alternative approaches to generate initial perturba- tions need to be developed to accommodate the uncertainty of the convective instability. In this paper, an initial condition perturbation approach to mesoscale heavy rainfall ensemble prediction, named as Different Physics Mode Method （DPMM）, is presented in detail. Based on the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model MM5, an ensemble prediction experiment on a typical heavy rainfall event in South China is carried out by using the DPMM, and the structure of the initial condition perturbation is analyzed. Further, the DPMM ensem- ble prediction is compared with a multi-physics ensemble prediction, and the results show that the initial perturbation fields from the DPMM have a reasonable mesoscale circulation structure and could reflect the prediction uncertainty in the sensitive regions of convective instability. An evaluation of the DPMM ini- tial condition perturbation indicates that the DPMM method produces better ensemble members than the multi-physics perturbation method, and can significantly improve the precipitation forecast than the control non-ensemble run.

关键词： heavy rainfall ensemble prediction initial condition perturbation multi-physics perturbation

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Convection Initiation of a heavy rainfall Event in the Coastal Metropolitan Region of Shanghai on the South Side of the Meiyu Front

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第2期37卷 149-173页

作者： Yanqing GAO Xiaofeng WANG Ying XIE Wen GU Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030

Accurate prediction of the convection initiation(CI)in urban areas is still a challenge.A heavy rainfall event,missed by the 9-km regional operational modeling system,occurred in the coastal urban area of the Shanghai metropolitan region(SMR)in the late morning on 28 July 2020 on the warm side to the south of the Meiyu *** this study,observational analyses and convection-permitting simulations with a resolution of 3 km were conducted to investigate the CI mechanism of this rainfall *** results showed that the CI was due to the interaction of urban heat island(UHI),northwesterly outflows from the Meiyu front precipitation system(MFPS),and northeasterly sea ***,the UHI created a lifting condition producing adiabatic cooling and the vertical moisture transport in the urban ***,the mesolow generated by the UHI induced and enhanced local low-level convergence near the CI region and accelerated the northwesterly outflows and the northeasterly sea winds as they converged to the *** convection was triggered as a result of the strengthened low-level convergence when the enhanced northwesterly outflows and northeasterly sea winds approached the updraft zone caused by the UHI *** experiments with either the urban area of the SMR removed or the MFPS suppressed further revealed that the enhancement of the low-level convergence was mainly contributed by the *** outflows and sea winds transported cold and moist air to the CI region and partly offset the negative contribution of the urban drying effect to the low-level relative humidity to facilitate the development of the deep moist absolute unstable layer during the *** addition,the MFPS also contributed to the enhancement of the northeasterly sea winds by influencing the land–sea pressure contrast on the north of the SMR.

关键词： convection initiation urban heat island outflows Meiyu front precipitation system heavy rainfall

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Image of local energy anomaly during a heavy rainfall event

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Chinese Physics B 2017年第11期26卷 565-573页

作者：杨帅左群杰高守亭 Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

A clear and interesting image of local total energy anomaly(EA) is depicted for a heavy rainfall event in this *** the convection development, it exhibits a positive local EA, implying local total energy(TE) experiences heaping up to prepare for the future system development. As the convection grows, it transforms into an opposite spatial modality with negative EA dominant, which means that the local TE is consumed to feed the convection growth in the middle and lower levels. The local total EA has consistent variation regular in intensity with severe weather system evolution. By utilizing the local TE budget equation in variable density fluid, the flux divergence of energy and its components are investigated, which could account for the local TE variation better. To relax the restriction and complexity introduced by identifying sporadic and alternative positive/negative signals of EA, the method taking the absolute-value operator on energy flux divergence is used to further simplify analyses. The derived characteristic signal of absolute EA is clearer and cleaner than ***, the EA could be illustrated based on the active degree of energy supply/consumption in a generalized sense whatever positive or negative anomaly should be it, which could be used easily to identify and even predict the system development for operational application. Note that, although two sets of methodologies are used to define EA herein, they play absolutely different roles in nature throughout the whole context. For example, the taking-perturbation method provides a diagnostic tool to portray a preliminary sketch and to give sufficient necessity of this research, while tendency equation of local TE illuminates more predictive sense and accounts for future local EA related to following system evolution. Therefore, the latter could be a more effective tool to routine usage.

关键词： local energy anomaly energy budget equation heavy rainfall

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Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation Patterns of heavy and Super-heavy rainfall in Iran

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第9期34卷 1069-1081页

作者： Iman ROUSTA Mehdi DOOSTKAMIAN Esmaeil HAGHIGHI Hamid Reza GHAFARIAN MALAMIRI Parvane YARAHMADI Department of Geography Yazd University Department of Geography Zanjan University Department of Geography Tabriz University Department of Geography Khwarizmi University

rainfall is a highly variable climatic element, and rainfall-related changes occur in spatial and temporal dimensions within a regional climate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial autocorrelation changes of Iran＇s heavy and super-heavy rainfall over the past 40 years. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data of 664 meteorological stations between 1971 and 2011 are used. To analyze the changes in rainfall within a decade, geostatistical techniques like spatial autocorrelation analysis of hot spots, based on the Getis-Ord Gi statistic, are employed. Furthermore, programming features in MATLAB, Surfer, and GIS are used. The results indicate that the Caspian coast, the northwest and west of the western foothills of the Zagros Mountains of Iran, the inner regions of Iran, and southern parts of Southeast and Northeast Iran, have the highest likelihood of heavy and super-heavy rainfall. The spatial pattern of heavy rainfall shows that, despite its oscillation in different periods, the maximum positive spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall includes areas of the west, northwest and west coast of the Caspian Sea. On the other hand, a negative spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall is observed in central Iran and parts of the east, particularly in Zabul. Finally, it is found that patterns of super-heavy rainfall are similar to those of heavy rainfall.

关键词： Iran heavy rainfall super-heavy rainfall spatial autocorrelation Gi index

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Evaluation of heavy rainfall Model Forecasts over the Korean Peninsula Using Different Physical Parameterization Schemes and Horizontal Resolution

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第6期28卷 1233-1245页

作者： Jeong-Gyun PARK Dong-Kyou LEE Atmospheric Sciences Program School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Seoul National University Seoul 151-747 Korea

In this study, the accuracy of a Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model （PSU/NCAR MM5） for predicting heavy summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula was investigated. A total of 1800 simulations were performed using this model for 30 heavy rainfall events employing four cumulus parameterization schemes （CPS）, two grid-scale resolvable precipitation schemes （GRS）, and two planetary boundary layer （PBL） schemes in three model resolutions （90 km, 30 km, and 10 km）. The heavy rainfall events were mesoscale convective systems developed under the influence of mid-latitude baroclinic systems with low-level moisture transport from the ocean. The predictive accuracy for maximum rainfall was approximately 80% for 10-km resolution and was 60% for 30-km resolution. The predictive accuracy for rainfall position extended to ～150 km from the observed position for both resolutions. Simulated rainfall was most sensitive to CPS, then to PBL schemes, and then to GRS. In general, the Grell （GR） scheme and the Anthes and Kuo （AK） scheme showed a better prediction capability for heavy rainfall than did the Betts-Miller （BM） scheme and the Kain-Fritsch （KF） scheme. The GR scheme also performed well in the 24-h and 12-h precipitation predictions： the parameterized convective rainfall in GR is directly related to synoptic-scale forcing. The models without CPS performed better for rainfall amounts but worse for rainfall position than those with CPS. The MM5 model demonstrated substantial predictive capacity using synoptic-scale initial conditions and lateral boundary data because heavy summer rainfall in Korea occurs in a strong synoptic-scale environment.

关键词： heavy rainfall mesoscale convection mesoscale model evaluation convective parameterization

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Improved Simulation of Summer heavy rainfall over Beijing and Henan by the YHGSM with Updated Subgrid Orographic Parameters

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 504-529页

作者： Yingjie WANG Jianping WU Kaijun REN College of Computer Science and Technology National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha410600China College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha410600China

In numerical weather prediction(NWP),the parameterization of orographic drag plays an important role in representing subgrid orographic *** subgrid orographic parameters are the key input to the parameterization of orographic ***,the subgrid orographic parameters in most NWP models were produced based on elevation datasets generated many years ago,with a coarse resolution and low *** this paper,using the latest high-quality elevation data and considering the applicable scale range of the subgrid orographic parameters,we construct the orographic parameters,including the subgrid orographic standard deviation,anisotropy,orientation,and slope,that are required as input to the orographic gravity wave drag(OGWD)***,we introduce the newly constructed orographic parameters into the Yin-He Global Spectral Model(YHGSM),optimize the description of the orographic effect in the model,and improve the simulation of two typical heavy rainfall events in Beijing and Henan.

关键词： subgrid orographic parameters orographic drag heavy rainfall Yin-He Global Spectral Model(YHGSM) parameterization

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Science and Prediction of heavy rainfall over China:Research Progress since the Reform and Opening-Up of New China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第3期34卷 427-459页

作者： Yali LUO Jisong SUN Ying LI Rudi XIA Yu DU Shuai YANG Yuanchun ZHANG Jing CHEN Kan DAI Xueshun SHEN Haoming CHEN Feifan ZHOU Yimin LIU Shenming FU Mengwen WU Tiangui XIAO Yangruixue CHEN Huiqi LI Mingxin LI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster StudiesSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 519082 Key Laboratory of Cloud–Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences Zhejiang Meteorological BureauHangzhou 310008 School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225 Institute of heavy Rain China Meteorological AdministrationWuhan 43020510 Institute of Tropical and Marine MeteorologyChina Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510640 Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101

This paper reviews the major progress on development of the science and prediction of heavy rainfall over China since the beginning of the reform and opening-up of new China(roughly between 1980 and 2019).The progress of research on the physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall over China is summarized from three perspectives:1)the relevant synoptic weather systems,2)heavy rainfall in major sub-regions of China,and 3)heavy rainfall induced by *** development and application of forecasting techniques for heavy rainfall are summarized in terms of numerical weather prediction techniques and objective forecasting *** aided by the rapid progress in meteorological observing technology and substantial improvement in electronic computing,studies of heavy rainfall in China have advanced to investigating the evolution of heavy-rain-producing storms and observational analysis of the cloud microphysical features.A deeper and more systematic understanding of the synoptic systems of importance to the production of heavy rainfall has also been *** forecast of heavy rainfall in China has changed from subjective weather event forecasts to a combination of both subjective and objective quantitative precipitation forecasts,and is now advancing toward probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with the provision of forecast uncertainty information.

关键词： heavy rainfall reform and opening-up of new China physical mechanisms forecasting techniques

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Experimental study on the moving characteristics of fine grains in wide grading unconsolidated soil under heavy rainfall

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Journal of Mountain Science 2017年第3期14卷 417-431页

作者： CUI Yi-fei ZHOU Xiao-jun GUO Chao-xu Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyClear Water BayHong KongChina China Merchants Chongqing Communications Research&Design Institute Chongqing 400067China Fujian Academy of Building Research Pujian Key Laboratory of Green Building TechnologyFuzhou 350025China Fuzhou University Fuzhou 350108China

The initiation mechanism of debris flow is regarded as the key step in understanding the debrisflow processes of occurrence, development and damage. Moreover, migration, accumulation and blocking effects of fine particles in soil will lead to soil failure and then develop into debris flow. Based on this hypothesis and considering the three factors of slope gradient, rainfall duration and rainfall intensity, 16 flume experiments were designed using the method of orthogonal design and completed in a laboratory. Particle composition changes in slope toe, volumetric water content, fine particle movement characteristics and soil failure mechanism were analyzed and understood as follows: the soil has complex, random and unstable structures, which causes remarkable pore characteristics of poor connectivity, non-uniformity and easy variation. The major factors that influence fine particle migration are rainfall intensity and slope. rainfall intensity dominates particle movement, whereby high intensity rainfall induces a large number of mass movement and sharp fluctuation, causing more fine particles to accumulate at the steep slope toe. The slope toe plays an important role in water collection and fine particleaccumulation. Both fine particle migration and coarse particle movement appears similar fluctuation. Fine particle migration is interrupted in unconnected pores, causing pore blockage and fine particle accumulation, which then leads to the formation of a weak layer and further soil failure or collapses. Fine particle movement also causes debris flow formation in two ways: movement on the soil surface and migration inside the soil. The results verify the hypothesis that the function of fine particle migration in soil failure process is conducive for further understanding the formation mechanism of soil failure and debris flow initiation.

关键词： Wide grading unconsolidated soil Fine particle migration Soil failure Landslide Debris flow initiation Flume test heavy rainfall

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Detecting the Origins of Moisture over Southeast China:Seasonal Variation and heavy rainfall

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第3期33卷 319-329页

作者： Xiuzhen LI Wen ZHOU Yongqin David CHEN Department of Geography and Resource Management The Chinese University of Hong Kong Guy Carpenter Asia–Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and EnvironmentCity University of Hong Kong Department of Geography and Resource Management and Institute of EnvironmentEnergy and SustainabilityThe Chinese University of Hong Kong

To examine the ability of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory （HYSPLIT） model to detect the origins and paths of moisture supplied to Southeast China, trajectories of air particles released over Southeast China were traced backward during 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 and three typical regional persistent heavy rainfall events. The HYSPLIT model provides more insightful information than water vapor flux. Analysis of the specific humidity along the trajectories revealed the origins of moisture and their contributions to the moisture supply in Southeast China. In the boreal summer half year, four key moisture transport paths from the eastern Indian Ocean, central Indian Ocean, South China Sea （SCS）, and western North Pacific （WNP） contribute 10%, 20%, 31%, and 16% of the moisture to Southeast China, respectively. In the winter half year, the contributions of the paths from the WNP and North China double. Examination of heavy rainfall events showed that under tropical storm conditions, all moisture transport routines are rotated cyclonically before reaching Southeast China. The invasion of cold air can trigger heavy rainfall in both the summer and winter half years but plays different roles： it does not contribute to the moisture supply but plays a key role in converging and uplifting the moisture in the summer half year, while it supplies a great amount of moisture in the winter half year as it absorbs abundant moisture in crossing the WNE

关键词： moisture origin Southeast China HYSPLIT seasonal variation heavy rainfall

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