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Convection Initiation of a Heavy rainfall Event in the Coastal Metropolitan Region of Shanghai on the South Side of the Meiyu Front

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第2期37卷 149-173页

作者： Yanqing GAO Xiaofeng WANG Ying XIE Wen GU Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030

Accurate prediction of the convection initiation(CI)in urban areas is still a challenge.A Heavy rainfall event,missed by the 9-km regional operational modeling system,occurred in the coastal urban area of the Shanghai metropolitan region(SMR)in the late morning on 28 July 2020 on the warm side to the south of the Meiyu front.In this study,observational analyses and convection-permitting simulations with a resolution of 3 km were conducted to investigate the CI mechanism of this rainfall event.The results showed that the CI was due to the interaction of urban heat island(UHI),northwesterly outflows from the Meiyu front precipitation system(MFPS),and northeasterly sea winds.First,the UHI created a lifting condition producing adiabatic cooling and the vertical moisture transport in the urban region.Then,the mesolow generated by the UHI induced and enhanced local low-level convergence near the CI region and accelerated the northwesterly outflows and the northeasterly sea winds as they converged to the UHI.The convection was triggered as a result of the strengthened low-level convergence when the enhanced northwesterly outflows and northeasterly sea winds approached the updraft zone caused by the UHI center.Sensitivity experiments with either the urban area of the SMR removed or the MFPS suppressed further revealed that the enhancement of the low-level convergence was mainly contributed by the UHI.The outflows and sea winds transported cold and moist air to the CI region and partly offset the negative contribution of the urban drying effect to the low-level relative humidity to facilitate the development of the deep moist absolute unstable layer during the CI.In addition,the MFPS also contributed to the enhancement of the northeasterly sea winds by influencing the land–sea pressure contrast on the north of the SMR.

关键词： convection initiation urban heat island outflows Meiyu front precipitation system Heavy rainfall

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The Impact of Moist Physics on the Sensitive Area Identification for Heavy rainfall Associated Weather Systems

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第5期39卷 684-696页

作者： Huizhen YU Zhiyong MENG Qingdao Meteorological Bureau Qingdao 266003China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

The impact of moist physics on the sensitive areas identified by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)is examined based on four typical Heavy rainfall cases in northern China through performing numerical experiments with and without moist physics.Results show that the CNOP with moist physics identifies sensitive areas corresponding to both the lower-(850−700 hPa)and upper-level(300−100 hPa)weather systems,while the CNOP without moist physics fails to capture the sensitive areas at lower levels.The reasons for the CNOP peaking at different levels can be explained in both algorithm and physics aspects.Firstly,the gradient of the cost function with respect to initial perturbations peaks at the upper level without moist physics which results in the upper-level peak of the CNOP,while it peaks at both the upper and lower levels with moist physics which results in both the upper-and lower-level peaks of the CNOP.Secondly,the upper-level sensitive area is associated with high baroclinicity,and these dynamic features can be captured by both CNOPs with and without moist physics.The lower-level sensitive area is associated with moist processes,and this thermodynamic feature can be captured only by the CNOP with moist physics.This result demonstrates the important contribution of the initial error of lower-level systems that are related to water vapor transportation to the forecast error of Heavy rainfall associated weather systems,which could be an important reference for Heavy rainfall observation targeting.

关键词： moist physics Heavy rainfall sensitive area CNOP

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Loess erosion change modeling during Heavy rainfall

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International Journal of Sediment Research 2023年第1期38卷 24-32页

作者： Hongwu Zhang Guangquan Liu Chensu Zhao Luohao Zhang Qiang Zhang Heng Fu Shuai Cao Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research School of Civil and Environment Engineering University of Science and Technology Beijing Ordos Municipal Water Resources Bureau Ordos Municipal Water Conservancy Development Center

A typical gully sub-basin with a complex geomorphological form is used to do a model test of gravity erosion of loess by considering the sequence of slopes in a prototype gully creating a sequence of underlying surface forms in the upper reaches. The results show that the runoff from Heavy rainfall is the main external force for the erosion of loess, and also is an important influencing factor to stimulate and intensify the development of gravity erosion. The soil structure and the height of the critical surface have a direct impact on the possibility of gravity erosion. Spatially, the upper section of the drainage channel mainly experiences undercutting and headcut erosion, the middle section mainly experiences lateral erosion and gravity erosion, and the lower section alternately experiences sedimentation or alluvial erosion. rainfall splash erosion produces a large amount of sand to yield high concentration mud flows in the middle and lower sections of the channel. Because of the mud flows the flood flow is obviously larger than the runoff volume formed by rainfall in a small watershed. The flood formed by high-intensity rainfall brings a large amount of sediment into the downstream rivers along the channel, indicating that under the condition that high-intensity rainfall on the Loess Plateau, lots sediment will enter the Yellow River, and the erosion deformation occurs on all slopes. Further the steep slope drainage flow causes undercutting and lateral erosion, and the soil body moves down along the slope under the action of gravity. The gully in the middle section still experience sediment washing in both depth and width,and the downstream gully continues to experiences sedimentation due to the reduction of the gradient,reflecting the adaptive adjustment of water flow and the boundary. Headcut erosion occurred on almost all slopes during different periods of rainfall, while gravity erosion mostly occurred on steep slope sections during periods of high-intensity rainfall.

关键词： Gravity erosion Slope erosion Erosion modeling Heavy rainfall

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Effect of Different Microphysical Parameterizations on the Simulations of a South China Heavy rainfall

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第1期29卷 68-86页

作者：周志敏胡杨王斌尹金方郭英莲康兆萍孙玉婷 Hubei Key Laboratory for heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan 430205 China State Key Laboratory of Sever Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China

A Heavy rainfall event in south China was simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model with three microphysics schemes, including the Morrison scheme, Thompson scheme, and Milbrandt and Yau scheme(MY), which aim to evaluate the capability to reproduce the precipitation and radar echo reflectivity features, and to evaluate evaluate their differences in microphysics and the associated thermodynamical and dynamical feedback. Results show that all simulations reproduce the main features crucial for rainfall formation. Compared with the observation, the MY scheme performed better than the other two schemes in terms of intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall. Due to abundant water vapor, the accretion of cloud droplets by raindrops was the dominant process in the growth of raindrops while the contribution of melting was a secondary effect. Riming processes, in which frozen hydrometeors collect cloud droplets mainly, contributed more to the growth of frozen hydrometeors than the Bergeron process. Extremely abundant snow and ice were produced in the Thompson and MY schemes respectively by a deposition process. The MY scheme has the highest condensation and evaporation, but the lowest deposition. As a result, in the MY scheme, the enhanced vertical gradient of condensation heating and evaporation cooling at low levels produces strong positive and weak negative potential vorticity in Guangdong, and may favor the formation of the enhanced rainfall center over there.

关键词： Heavy rainfall microphysical parameterization hydrometeor budget diabatic heating

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Spatiotemporal characteristics of GNSS-derived precipitable water vapor during Heavy rainfall events in Guilin,China

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Satellite Navigation 2021年第1期2卷 175-191页

作者： Liangke Huang Zhixiang Mo Shaofeng Xie Lilong Liu Chuanli Kang Shitai Wang College of Geomatics and Geoinformation Guilin University of TechnologyGuilin 541004China Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics Guilin 541004China.3 School of Geodesy and GeomaticsWuhan UniversityWuhan 430079China.

Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV),as an important indicator of atmospheric water vapor,can be derived from Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)observations with the advantages of high precision and all-weather capacity.GNSS-derived PWV with a high spatiotemporal resolution has become an important source of observations in mete-orology,particularly for severe weather conditions,for water vapor is not well sampled in the current meteorological observing systems.In this study,an empirical atmospheric weighted mean temperature(Tm)model for Guilin is estab-lished using the radiosonde data from 2012 to 2017.Then,the observations at 11 GNSS stations in Guilin are used to investigate the spatiotemporal features of GNSS-derived PWV under the Heavy rainfalls from June to July 2017.The results show that the new Tm model in Guilin has better performance with the mean bias and Root Mean Square(RMS)of−0.51 and 2.12 K,respectively,compared with other widely used models.Moreover,the GNSS PWV estimates are validated with the data at Guilin radiosonde station.Good agreements are found between GNSS-derived PWV and radiosonde-derived PWV with the mean bias and RMS of−0.9 and 3.53 mm,respectively.Finally,an investigation on the spatiotemporal characteristics of GNSS PWV during Heavy rainfalls in Guilin is performed.It is shown that variations of PWV retrieved from GNSS have a direct relationship with the in situ rainfall measurements,and the PWV increases sharply before the arrival of a Heavy rainfall and decreases to a stable state after the cease of the rainfall.It also reveals the moisture variation in several regions of Guilin during a Heavy rainfall,which is significant for the moni-toring of rainfalls and weather forecast.

关键词： GNSS Precipitable water vapor Heavy rainfall Spatiotemporal characteristic Atmospheric weighted mean temperature

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Comparison of Heavy rainfall Events Originated from Different Directions of Beijing City

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第6期34卷 1299-1308页

作者： Weihua YUAN Xuelin HU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

Strong rainfall events originated from the northeast(NE)and southwest(SW)directions of the plain area of Beijing City(BJP)over 8 recent warm seasons(May–September of 2009–2016)were analyzed by using hourly merged rainfall,satellite brightness temperature,and the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis(ERA5)data.Such heavy regional rainfall events(RREs)with different origins present quite different features in both the precipitation itself and its corresponding circulations.The heavy RREs originated from the SW occur more frequently in the flood season of North China(July and August),and the peak time of rainfall occurrences is in the early morning.They are linked with stronger large-scale circulation forcing,compared with the NE-originated events.Meanwhile,the ratio of Heavy rainfall to the total rainfall in SW-originated events,the mean spatial coverage of rainfall,and associated convective index,are also larger,for the SW events.The heavy RREs from the NE occur more frequently in June and July(before the traditional flood season),with a more apparent afternoon peak.They exhibit stronger convective features,with higher maximum convective index values,but the large-scale forcing is weaker at the hour of onset.These features of the RREs from different directions of Beijing City and associated precursor circulation signals help better forecast RREs over the BJP.

关键词： Heavy rainfall hourly rainfall features rainfall with different origins

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Science and Prediction of Heavy rainfall over China:Research Progress since the Reform and Opening-Up of New China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第3期34卷 427-459页

作者： Yali LUO Jisong SUN Ying LI Rudi XIA Yu DU Shuai YANG Yuanchun ZHANG Jing CHEN Kan DAI Xueshun SHEN Haoming CHEN Feifan ZHOU Yimin LIU Shenming FU Mengwen WU Tiangui XIAO Yangruixue CHEN Huiqi LI Mingxin LI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster StudiesSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 519082 Key Laboratory of Cloud–Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences Zhejiang Meteorological BureauHangzhou 310008 School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225 Institute of heavy Rain China Meteorological AdministrationWuhan 43020510 Institute of Tropical and Marine MeteorologyChina Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510640 Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101

This paper reviews the major progress on development of the science and prediction of Heavy rainfall over China since the beginning of the reform and opening-up of new China(roughly between 1980 and 2019).The progress of research on the physical mechanisms of Heavy rainfall over China is summarized from three perspectives:1)the relevant synoptic weather systems,2)Heavy rainfall in major sub-regions of China,and 3)Heavy rainfall induced by typhoons.The development and application of forecasting techniques for Heavy rainfall are summarized in terms of numerical weather prediction techniques and objective forecasting methods.Greatly aided by the rapid progress in meteorological observing technology and substantial improvement in electronic computing,studies of Heavy rainfall in China have advanced to investigating the evolution of heavy-rain-producing storms and observational analysis of the cloud microphysical features.A deeper and more systematic understanding of the synoptic systems of importance to the production of Heavy rainfall has also been developed.Operational forecast of Heavy rainfall in China has changed from subjective weather event forecasts to a combination of both subjective and objective quantitative precipitation forecasts,and is now advancing toward probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with the provision of forecast uncertainty information.

关键词： Heavy rainfall reform and opening-up of new China physical mechanisms forecasting techniques

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On the Diurnal Cycle of Heavy rainfall over the Sichuan Basin during 10–18 August 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2183-2200页

作者： Rudi XIA Yali LUO Da-Lin ZHANG Mingxin LI Xinghua BAO Jisong SUN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege ParkCollege ParkMaryland 20742USA

A sustained Heavy rainfall event occurred over the Sichuan basin in southwest China during 10–18 August 2020,showing pronounced diurnal rainfall variations with nighttime peak and afternoon minimum values,except on the first day.Results show that the westward extension of the anomalously strong western Pacific subtropical high was conducive to the maintenance of a southerly low-level jet(LLJ)in and to the southeast of the basin,which favored continuous water vapor transport and abnormally high precipitable water in the basin.The diurnal cycle of rainfall over the basin was closely related to the periodic oscillation of the LLJ in both wind speed and direction that was caused by the combination of inertial oscillation and terrain thermal forcing.The nocturnally enhanced rainfall was produced by moist convection mostly initiated during the evening hours over the southwest part of the basin where high convective available potential energy with moister near-surface moist air was present.The convective initiation took place as cold air from either previous precipitating clouds from the western Sichuan Plateau or a larger-scale northerly flow met a warm and humid current from the south.It was the slantwise lifting of the warm,moist airflow above the cold air,often facilitated by southwest vortices and quasi-geostrophic ascent,that released the convective instability and produced Heavy rainfall.

关键词： diurnal cycle Heavy rainfall low-level jet inertial oscillation terrain Sichuan basin

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CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAVITY WAVE PROPAGATION AND ENERGY CONVERSION IN A SUDDEN Heavy rainfall EVENT

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第3期24卷 369-384页

作者：赵桂香王一颉王晓丽 Shanxi Meteorological Observatory Taiyuan030006China

In this paper, a sudden Heavy rainfall event is analyzed, which occurred over the Yellow River midstream during 5-6 August 2014. We used observational, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, high-resolution satellite, and numerical simulation data. The main results are as follows. Under an unfavorable environmental circulation, inadequate water vapor and unfavorable dynamic conditions but sufficient energy, a local sudden Heavy rainfall was caused by the release of strong unstable energy that was triggered by cold air transport into middle and lower layers and the propagation of gravity waves. The distributions of rain area, rain clusters, and 10-minute rainfall showed typical mesoscale and microscale fluctuation characteristics. In the mesoscale rain area or upstream, there was a quasi-stationary wave of mesoscale gravity waves with their propagation downstream. In the course of propagation from southwest to northeast,the wavelength became longer and the amplitude attenuated. In the various phases of gravity wave development, there were evident differences in the direction of the wave front. Wave energy was mainly in the lower layers. Unstable vertical wind shear at heights of 1-6 km provided fluctuation energy for the gravity waves. The mechanisms of Heavy rainfall formation were different at Linyou and Hancheng stations. Diabatic heating was the main source of disturbed effective potential energy at Linyou. The explosive short-period strong precipitation was caused by the release of strong effective potential energy triggered by the gravity waves, and its development and propagation after that energy maximized. In contrast, the latent heat release of upstream precipitation was the main source of disturbed effective potential energy at Hancheng. This formed a positive feedback mechanism that produced continuous precipitation. In the studied event, the development of westerly belt systems had disturbed the wind field. The contribution of kinetic energy generated by this disturbance could not be ignored. The Froude number, mounta

关键词： Heavy rainfall gravity wave energy conversion terrain fluctuation

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A Heavy rainfall Event in Autumn over Beijing--Atmospheric Circulation Background and Hindcast Simulation Using WRF

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第3期32卷 503-515页

作者： Xiangrui LI Ke FAN Entao YU Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225

Heavy rainfall events often occur in Beijing during summer but rarely in autumn. However,during 3-5 September2015, an exceptionally Heavy rainfall event occurred in Beijing. Based on the reanalysis data and the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model simulations, the main contributing factors and the predictability of this Heavy rainfall event were examined through comprehensive analyses of vorticity advection and water vapor transport/budget. The results indicate that a "high-in-the-east-low-in-the-west" pattern of 500-hPa geopotential height over the Beijing area played an important role. The 850-hPa low-level jet(LLJ) provided a mechanism for rising motion and transported abundant water vapor into the Beijing area. Two-way nested hindcast experiments using WRF well reproduced the atmospheric circulation and LLJ. Quantitative analysis indicates that the WRF model with the rapid update cycle(RUC) land surface scheme and the single-moment 6-class(WSM6) microphysics scheme exhibited the best skill, and the model performance improved with a higher resolution. Further analysis indicates that the bias in the precipitation forecast was caused by the bias in water vapor transport.

关键词： Heavy rainfall WRF model water vapor supply autumn Beijing area

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