检索结果-南通市图书馆

Quantitative estimation of hourly precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains based on area-to-point kriging downscaling and satellite-gauge data merging

引用

Journal of Mountain Science 2022年第1期19卷 58-72页

作者： LU Xin-yu CHEN Yuan-yuan TANG Guo-qiang WANG Xiu-qin LIU Yan WEI Ming Institute of Desert Meteorology China Meteorological Administration.Urumqi 830002China Central-Asia Research Center of Atmosphere Science Urumqi 830002China College of Environment Zhejiang University of TechnologyHangzhou 310014China University of Saskatchewan Coldwater Lab Canmore T1W 3G1Canada Center for Hydrology University of SaskatchewanSaskatchewan S7N 5A2Canada Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

precipitation, a basic component of the water cycle, is significantly important for meteorological, climatological and hydrological research. However, accurate estimation on the precipitation remains considerably challenging because of the sparsity of gauge networks and the large spatial variability of precipitation over mountainous regions. Moreover, meteorological stations in mountainous areas are often dispersed and have difficulty in accurately reflecting the intensity and evolution of precipitation events. In this study,we proposed a novel method to produce high-quality,high-resolution precipitation estimates in the Tianshan Mountains, China, based on area-to-point kriging(ATPK) downscaling and a two-step correction, i.e., probability density function matching-optimum interpolation(PDF-OI). We obtained 1-km hourly precipitation data in the Tianshan Mountains by merging estimates from the Integrated Multisatellite Measurement(IMERG) product with observations from 1065 meteorological stations in the warm season(May to September) during 2016–2018. The spatial resolution and accuracy of the merged precipitation data greatly increased compared to *** to a cross-validation with gauged observations, the correlation coefficient(CC),probability of detection(POD) and critical success index(CSI) increased from 0.30, 0.50 and 0.24 for IMERG to 0.63, 0.65 and 0.38, respectively, for the merged estimates, and the root mean squared error(RMSE), mean error(ME) and false alarm ratio(FAR)decreased from 0.46 to 0.38 mm/h, 0.06 to 0.05 mm/h and 0.69 to 0.52, respectively. The proposed method will be useful for developing high-resolution precipitation estimates in mountainous areas such as central Asia and the Belt and Road Initiative regions.

关键词： hourly precipitation Downscaling merging Tianshan Mountains IMERG Area-to-point kriging(ATPK)

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Assessing hourly precipitation Forecast Skill with the Fractions Skill Score

引用

Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第1期32卷 135-145页

作者： Bin ZHAO Bo ZHANG National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081 China Meteorological Administration Numerical Weather Prediction Center Beijing 100081

Statistical methods for category（yes/no） forecasts, such as the Threat Score, are typically used in the verification of precipitation forecasts. However, these standard methods are affected by the so-called ＂double-penalty＂ problem caused by slight displacements in either space or time with respect to the observations. Spatial techniques have recently been developed to help solve this problem. The fractions skill score（FSS）, a neighborhood spatial verification method, directly compares the fractional coverage of events in windows surrounding the observations and *** applied the FSS to hourly precipitation verification by taking hourly forecast products from the GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction System） regional model and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the National Meteorological Information Center of China during July and August 2016, and investigated the difference between these results and those obtained with the traditional category score. We found that the model spin-up period affected the assessment of stability. Systematic errors had an insignificant role in the fraction Brier score and could be ignored. The dispersion of observations followed a diurnal cycle and the standard deviation of the forecast had a similar pattern to the reference maximum of the fraction Brier score. The coefficient of the forecasts and the observations is similar to the FSS; that is, the FSS may be a useful index that can be used to indicate *** with the traditional skill score, the FSS has obvious advantages in distinguishing differences in precipitation time series, especially in the assessment of heavy rainfall.

关键词： neighborhood spatial verification method fractions skill score traditional category score hourly precipitation heavy rainfall

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Zoning Evaluation of hourly precipitation in High-resolution Regional Numerical Models over Hainan Island

引用

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第4期29卷 460-472页

作者：冯箫吴俞杨薇李勋 Hainan Provincial Meteorological Observatory Haikou 570203 China Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province Haikou 570203 China

This study assesses the performance of three high-resolution regional numerical models in predicting hourly rainfall over Hainan Island from April to October for the years from 2020 to *** rainfall amount,frequency,intensity,duration,and diurnal cycle are examined through zoning *** results show that the China Meteor-ological Administration Guangdong Rapid Update Assimilation Numerical Forecast System(CMA-GD)tends to forecast a higher occurrence of light *** underestimates the late afternoon precipitation and the occurrence of short-duration *** China Meteorological Administration Shanghai Numerical Forecast Model System(CMA-SH9)reproduces excessive precipitation at a higher frequency and intensity throughout the *** overestimates rainfall during the late afternoon and midnight *** simulated most frequent peak times of rainfall in CMA-SH9 are 0-1 hour deviations from the observed *** China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Weather Numerical Forecasting System(CMA-MESO)displays a similar pattern to rainfall observations but fails to replicate reasonable structure and diurnal variation of *** underestimates the occurrence of long-duration events and overestimates related rainfall amounts from midnight to early ***,significant discrepancies are observed in the predictions of the three models for areas with complex terrain,such as the central,southeastern,and southwestern regions of Hainan Island.

关键词： Hainan Island hourly precipitation regional numerical model zoning evaluation

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Climate change attribution of the 2021 Henan extreme precipitation: Impacts of convective organization

引用

Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第10期65卷 1837-1846页

作者： Han QIN Wei YUAN Jun WANG Yang CHEN Panxi DAI Adam HSOBEL Zhiyong MENG Ji NIE Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Aviation Meteorological Center Civil Aviation Administration of ChinaBeijing 100621China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Earth SciencesZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310027China Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University

In this study, we investigate the climate attribution of the 21·7 Henan extreme precipitation event. A conditional storyline attribution method is used, based on simulations of the event with a small-domain high-resolution cloud-resolving model. Large-scale vertical motion is determined by an interactive representation of large-scale dynamics based on the quasigeostrophic omega equation, with dynamical forcing terms taken from observation-based reanalysis data. It is found that warming may lead to significant intensification of both regional-scale(10–14% K, depending on convective organization) and station-scale precipitation extremes(7–9% K^(-1)). By comparing clustered convection organized by a localized surface temperature anomaly and squall-line convection organized by vertical wind shear, we further explored how convective organization may modify precipitation extremes and their responses to warming. It is found that shear convective organization is much more sensitive to large-scale dynamic forcing and results in much higher precipitation extremes at both regional and station scales than unorganized convection is. The clustered convection increases station-scale precipitation only slightly during heavy precipitation events. For regional-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, shear-organized convection has a larger sensitivity by 2–3% Kthan that of unorganized convection, over a wide temperature range, due to its stronger diabatic heating feedback. For the station-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, no systemic dependence on convective organization is found in our simulations.

关键词： Extreme precipitation Global warming Climate change attribution Convective organization hourly precipitation

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

The Long-term Variation of Extreme Heavy precipitation and Its Link to Urbanization Effects in Shanghai during 1916–2014

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第3期34卷 321-334页

作者： Ping LIANG Yihui DING Shanghai Climate Center Shanghai 200030China National Climate Center Beijing 100081China

Using the hourly precipitation records of meteorological stations in Shanghai, covering a period of almost a century （1916-2014）, the long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation in Shanghai on multiple spatial and temporal scales is analyzed, and the effects of urbanization on hourly rainstorms studied. Results show that：（1） Over the last century, extreme hourly precipitation events enhanced significantly. During the recent urbanization period from 1981 to 2014, the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly, with a distinct localized and abrupt characteristic. （2） The spatial distribution of long-term trends for the occurrence frequency and total precipitation intensity of hourly heavy precipitation in Shanghai shows a distinct urban rain-island feature; namely, heavy precipitation was increasingly focused in urban and suburban areas. Attribution analysis shows that urbanization in Shanghai contributed greatly to the increase in both frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in the city, thus leading to an increasing total precipitation amount of heavy rainfall events. In addition, the diurnal variation of rainfall intensity also shows distinctive urban-rural differences, especially during late afternoon and early nighttime in the city area. （3） Regional warming, with subsequent enhancement of water vapor content, convergence of moisture flux and atmospheric instability, provided favorable physical backgrounds for the formation of extreme precipitation. This accounts for the consistent increase in hourly heavy precipitation over the whole Shanghai area during recent times.

关键词： hourly precipitation long-term trend urbanization extreme events

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Long-term trends of precipitation and erosivity over Northeast China during 1961-2020

引用

International Soil and Water Conservation Research 2023年第4期11卷 743-754页

作者： Wenting Wang Shuiqing Yin Juan Yu Zeng He Yun Xie College of Education for the Future Beijing Normal University at ZhuhaiZhuhai519087China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China College of Arts and Sciences Beijing Normal University at ZhuhaiZhuhai519087China Zhixing College Beijing Normal University at ZhuhaiZhuhai519087China

Northeast China(NEC)is one of the vital commercial grain bases in China and it has suffered from soil erosion due to prolonged cultivation and lack of *** determine long-term trends of precipi-tation and rainfall erosivity over NEC during the latest decades,daily precipitation for the entire year during 1961-2020 and hourly precipitation for the warm season(May to September)during 1971-2020 were collected for 192 and 126 stations,*** seasons,including the cold season(October to April),early warm season(May to June),and late warm season(July to September)were divided according to the combination of precipitation and *** demonstrate:(1)Daily precipita-tion reveals total precipitation and rainfall erosivity in the cold season and early warm season increase significantly at relative rates of 3.1%-6.1%compared with the average during 1961-2020,and those in the late warm season decrease insignificantly.(2)hourly precipitation reveals storms occurring in the early and late warm seasons have undergone significant increasing changes,which shift towards longer storm duration,larger amount,peak intensity,kinetic energy,and rainfall erosivity during ***,the frequency of extreme storms increased.(3)Rainfall erosivities estimated from daily pre-cipitation during 1971-2020 increase insignificantly for the early and late warm season,whereas those from hourly precipitation increase significantly(6.1%and 5.5%,respectively),which indicates daily precipitation may not be able to capture the trend fully under the warming background,and precipi-tation at higher resolutions than the daily scale is necessary to detect trends of rainfall erosivity more accurately.

关键词： Rainfall erosivity Climate change Storm characteristic hourly precipitation Northeast China

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

CAS FGOALS-f3-H and CAS FGOALS-f3-L outputs for the high-resolution model intercomparison project simulation of CMIP6

引用

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2020年第6期13卷 576-581页

作者： BAO Qing LIU Yimin WU Guoxiong HE Bian LI Jinxiao WANG Lei WU Xiaofei CHEN Kangjun WANG Xiaocong YANG Jing ZHANG Xiaoqi State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina School of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project(HighResMIP)is a unique model intercomparison project in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),which is focused on the impact of horizontal *** outputs of the high-and low-resolution versions of CAS FGOALS-f3-H and CAS FGOALS-f3-L for the experiments of the HighResMIP simulations in CMIP6 are described in this *** models and their configurations,experimental settings,and postprocessing methods are all *** FGOALS-f3-H,with a 0.25°horizontal resolution,and CAS FGOALS-f3-L,with a 1°horizontal resolution,were forced by the standard external conditions,and two coordinated sets of simulations were conducted for 1950–2014 and 2015–50 with the Experiment IDs of‘highresSST-present’and‘highresSST-future’,*** model outputs contain multiple time scales including the required hourly mean,three-hourly mean,six-hourly transient,daily mean,and monthly mean *** is reported that the 0.25°CAS FGOALS-f3-H successfully simulates some of the key challenges in climate modeling,including the average lifetime of tropical cyclones,particularly in the western parts of the northern Pacific Ocean,and the diurnal cycle of hourly *** datasets will contribute to the benchmarking of current models for CMIP,and studies of the impacts of horizontal resolutions on climate modeling issues.

关键词： CMIP6 HighResMIP FGOALS-f3-H FGOALS-f3-L tropical cyclone diurnal cycle hourly precipitation

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Analysis on the Characteristics of Rainstorm in Hanbin District of Ankang City during 1961-2003

引用

Meteorological and Environmental Research 2011年第2期2卷 22-23,26页

作者： LI Hong-mei Remote Sensing Information Center for Agriculture in Shaanxi Province Xi’an 710014China

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the rainstorm characteristics in Hanbin District of Ankang City in 43 years. [Method] By using the daily and hourly precipitation data in Hanbin District of Ankang City during 1961-2003, the occurrence rule and variation characteristics of rainstorm weather in 43 years in the zone were analyzed. [Result] The distribution of rainstorm days in Hanbin District of Ankang City had the obvious season characteristic. The earliest rainstorm days occurred in May and started to increase in June. It frequently happened in July, August and gradually decreased in September. The latest rainstorm finished in the middle ten-day of October. The storm rainfall and days in Hanbin District of Ankang City during 1961-2003 both presented the obvious linear increase trend. From the 1970s to the end of 1980s, it was the period when the storm rainfall was more. The rainstorm days during the 1960s-early 1970s and early 1990s were fewer. The rainstorm days were more from the metaphase of 1970s to late 1980s and after the metaphase of 1990s. The time distribution characteristic of hourly precipitation in the rainstorm days was obvious and based mainly on the single peak type. The time mainly concentrated in the daytime, and the short-time strong precipitation was more. [Conclusion] The research provided the reference basis for accurately forecasting the rainstorm occurrence, disaster prevention and reduction work.

关键词： Rainstorm hourly precipitation Characteristic analysis Hanbin District of Ankang City China

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：