The Long-term Variation of Extreme Heavy Precipitation and Its Link to Urbanization Effects in Shanghai during 1916–2014

作     者：Ping LIANG Yihui DING 

作者机构：Shanghai Climate CenterShanghai 200030China National Climate CenterBeijing 100081China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2017年第34卷第3期

页      面：321-334页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：jointly supported by the Major Consulting Projects of the Chinese Academy of Engineering(“Study on Strategies and Measures for the Prevention and Control of Urban Flood and Waterlogging Disasters in China”) the Public Welfare Industry(Meteorological)Research Projects(Grant Nos.GYHY201306065,GYHY201406001) a research project of the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau(Grant No.YJ201604) 

主　　题：hourly precipitation long-term trend urbanization extreme events 

摘      要：Using the hourly precipitation records of meteorological stations in Shanghai, covering a period of almost a century （1916-2014）, the long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation in Shanghai on multiple spatial and temporal scales is analyzed, and the effects of urbanization on hourly rainstorms studied. Results show that： （1） Over the last century, extreme hourly precipitation events enhanced significantly. During the recent urbanization period from 1981 to 2014, the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly, with a distinct localized and abrupt characteristic. （2） The spatial distribution of long-term trends for the occurrence frequency and total precipitation intensity of hourly heavy precipitation in Shanghai shows a distinct urban rain-island feature; namely, heavy precipitation was increasingly focused in urban and suburban areas. Attribution analysis shows that urbanization in Shanghai contributed greatly to the increase in both frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in the city, thus leading to an increasing total precipitation amount of heavy rainfall events. In addition, the diurnal variation of rainfall intensity also shows distinctive urban-rural differences, especially during late afternoon and early nighttime in the city area. （3） Regional warming, with subsequent enhancement of water vapor content, convergence of moisture flux and atmospheric instability, provided favorable physical backgrounds for the formation of extreme precipitation. This accounts for the consistent increase in hourly heavy precipitation over the whole Shanghai area during recent times.