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Comparative Assessment of Tundra Vegetation Changes Between North and Southwest Slopes of Changbai Mountains, China, in Response to global warming

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Chinese Geographical Science 2018年第4期28卷 665-679页

作者： JIN Yinghua ZHANG Yingjie XU Jiawei TAO Yan HE Hongshi GUO Meng WANG Ailin LIU Yuxia NIU Liping School of Geographical Sciences Northeast Normal University School of Natural Resources University of Missouri

Vegetation in high altitude areas normally exhibits the strongest response to global warming. We investigated the tundra vegetation on the Changbai Mountains and revealed the similarities and differences between the north and the southwest slopes of the Changbai Mountains in response to global warming. Our results were as follows: 1) The average temperatures in the growing season have increased from 1981 to 2015, the climate tendency rate was 0.38℃/10 yr, and there was no obvious change in precipitation observed. 2) The tundra vegetation of the Changbai Mountains has changed significantly over the last 30 years. Specifically, herbaceous plants have invaded into the tundra zone, and the proportion of herbaceous plants was larger than that of shrubs. Shrub tundra was transforming into shrub-grass tundra. 3) The tundra vegetation in the north and southwest slopes of the Changbai Mountains responded differently to global warming. The southwest slope showed a significantly higher degree of invasion from herbaceous plants and exhibited greater vegetation change than the north slope. 4) The species diversity of plant communities on the tundra zone of the north slope changed unimodally with altitude, while that on the tundra zone of the southwest slope decreased monotonously with altitude. Differences in the degree of invasion from herbaceous plants resulted in differences in species diversity patterns between the north and southwest slopes. Differences in local microclimate, plant community successional stage and soil fertility resulted in differential responses of tundra vegetation to global warming.

关键词： global warming Changbai Mountains tundra vegetation change species diversity patterns

Change of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential in Response to global warming

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第4期33卷 504-510页

作者： Ran LIU Changlin CHEN Guihua WANG State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Hangzhou 31O012

Tropical cyclone heat potential （TCHP） in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5）. As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 （＋4.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway） scenario, The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26~C isotherm （D26）, the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26~C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model （OGCM） is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary.

关键词： tropical cyclone heat potential global warming CM1P5 OGCM

Impacts of global warming Perturbation on Water Resources in Arid Zone: Case Study of Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2011年第5期8卷 704-710页

作者： MUPENZI Jean de la Paix State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences

The main goal of this study was to assess the long-term impacts of global warming perturbation on water resources of the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. Temperature, precipitation and hydrology data during the past 29 years from 1979 to 2007 were collected and analyzed using parametric and non-parametric methods, the connection between temperature and precipitation by the combination of grey correlation analysis method and the hypothesis testing for trend of climate change. The results show a high increase in temperature in the study area as well as an extreme and highly variable hydrological regime in this region, where flash floods can exceed the total runoff from a sequence of years. These variations may be due to the geographical location of the Kaidu River Basin in arid zone. It also reveals that precipitation has a much greater impact on stream flow than that of temperature. The development of new approaches was proposed as responses to climate change in this arid region.

关键词： global warming Kaidu River Temperature Precipitations Stream flow

Impacts of global warming on Patterns of Temperature Change in China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2009年第4期6卷 405-410页

作者： LU Aigang Environment and Life Sciences Weinan Teachers University Weinan 714000 Shaanxi China

global climate change has a wide range ofimpacts,and this paper presents an investigation onhow global warming has changed the relationshipbetween air temperature and latitude & altitude usingthe meteorological data obtained from 160 stations inChina. The investigation indicates that there are verydistinct seasonal differences in patterns of tempera-ture variation as a function of latitude and altitude:avery significant latitude effect in winter and a verysignificant altitude effect in summer. However,withglobal warming,the latitude effect in winter isweakening and the altitude effect in summer isstrengthening. This pattern of change in therelationship between temperature and latitude &altitude is helpful in efforts to reconstruct and explainthe past temperature patterns and variations.

关键词： global warming Latitude effect Altitude effect China

Assessing global warming Induced Changes in Summer Rainfall Variability over Eastern China Using the Latest Hadley Centre Climate Model HadGEM3-GC2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 181-197页

作者： Yawen DUAN Peili WU Xiaolong CHEN Zhuguo MA Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia (TEA) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX1 3PB UK State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China axe characterized spatially by meridionally banded structnres fluctu- ating on interannual and interdecadal timescales, leading to regional droughts and floods. In addition to long-term trends, how these patterns may change under global warming has important implications for agricultural planning and water resources over this densely populated area. Using the latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM3-GC2, this paper investigates the potential response of summer precipitation patterns over this region, by comparing the leading modes between a 4×CQ simulation and the model＇s pre-industrial control simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analyses show that the first two leading modes account for about 20% of summer rainfall variability. EOF1 is a monopole mode associated with the developing phase of ENSO events and EOF2 is a dipole mode associated with the decaying phase of ENSO. Under 4×CO2 forcing, the dipole mode with a south-north orientation becomes dominant because of a strengthened influence from exces- sive warming of the Indian Ocean. On interdecadal time scales, the first EOF looks very different from the control simulation, showing a dipole mode of east-west contrast with enhanced influence from high latitudes.

关键词： rainfall variability global warming ENSO HadGEM3-GC2

Strengthening of the Walker Circulation under global warming in an Aqua-Planet General Circulation Model Simulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第11期32卷 1473-1480页

作者： Tim LI ZHANG Lei Hiroyuki MURAKAMI AORC/IPRC and Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change and Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute

Most climate models project a weakening of the Walker circulation under global warming scenarios. It is argued, based on a global averaged moisture budget, that this weakening can be attributed to a slower rate of rainfall increase compared to that of moisture increase, which leads to a decrease in ascending motion. Through an idealized aqua-planet simulation in which a zonal wavenumber-1 SST distribution is prescribed along the equator, we find that the Walker circulation is strengthened under a uniform 2-K SST warming, even though the global mean rainfall-moisture relationship remains the same. Further diagnosis shows that the ascending branch of the Walker cell is enhanced in the upper troposphere but weakened in the lower troposphere. As a result, a ＂double-cell＂ circulation change pattern with a clockwise （anti-clockwise） circulation anomaly in the upper （lower） troposphere forms, and the upper tropospheric circulation change dominates. The mechanism for the formation of the ＂double cell＂ circulation pattern is attributed to a larger （smaller） rate of increase of diabatic heating than static stability in the upper （lower） troposphere. The result indicates that the future change of the Walker circulation cannot simply be interpreted based on a global mean moisture budget argument.

关键词： Walker circulation global warming aqua-planet simulation

The Impact of global warming on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Possible Mechanism

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第1期31卷 118-130页

作者： FANG Changfang WU Lixin ZHANG Xiang Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China Navy Marine Hydrometeorological Center of the Chinese PLA

The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model （FOAM） and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The results show that North Pacific ocean decadal variability, its dominant mode （i.e., PDO）, and atmospheric decadal variability, have become weaker under global warming, but with PDO shifting to a higher frequency. The SST decadal variability reduction maximum is shown to be in the subpolar North Pacific Ocean and western North Pacific （PDO center）. The atmospheric decadal variability reduction maximum is over the PDO center. It was also found that oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves play a key role in PDO dynamics, especially those in the subpolar ocean. As the frequency of ocean buoyancy increases under a warmer climate, oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves become faster, and the increase in their speed ratio in the high latitudes is much larger than in the low latitudes. The faster baroclinic Rossby waves can cause the PDO to shift to a higher frequency, and North Pacific decadal variability and PDO to become weaker.

关键词： Pacific Ocean decadal variability Pacific Decadal Oscillation global warming baroclinic Rossby waves

Impacts of global warming on southern California's winegrape climate suitability

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2020年第3期11卷 279-293页

作者： Corrie MONTE VERDE Fernando DE SALES Geography Department San Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA92182USA Center for Climate and Sustainability Studies San Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA92182USA

Southern California has seen a resurgence of winegrowing regions in the past few decades,however the future of winegrape climatic suitability in the area has not been exhaustively *** study evaluated the future climate suitability for the cultivation of winegrape and potential global warming impacts on southern California's winegrowing regions through a series of high-resolution surface air temperature and precipitation projections obtained with the WRF-SSIB regional climate *** reveal that by mid-21st-century the surface air temperature will increase by approximately 1.2℃,while average precipitation will decrease by as much as 11%in the southern winegrowing areas under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change high greenhouse-gas emissions *** of bioclimatic suitability indices indicate increases in heat accumulation for all major winegrowing areas;including an increase of about 10% in growing-degree day,while morning low temperatures in September may experience increases of approximately 11% in the future,thus impacting negatively the ripening stage of grapevines and leading to changes in wine composition and ***,the extent of areas classified under the cool to warm climate suitability categories could decrease by nearly 42% in the study area by *** in southern California are already warm and dry for viticulture and continuing heat accumulation increase,along with rainfall reduction,could potentially place additional stress to winegrape crop in the area,including advanced phenological timing and moisture deficit stress that could lead to decreases in *** projected decline in viticulture suitability highlights the need for adaptive capacity within this sector to mitigate the impacts of global *** mitigating strategies include planting hotter climate grape varieties,moving vineyards to regions that are more suitable in the future,and adopting dry-farming techniques.

关键词： global warming Winegrape suitability Regional climate modeling Bioclimatic indices Dynamical downscaling

On the Response of the global Subduction Rate to global warming in Coupled Climate Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第1期31卷 211-218页

作者： LIU Chengyan WANG Zhaomin School of Marine Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

The response of the global subduction rate to global warming was assessed based on a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） models. It was found that the subduction rate of the global ocean could be significantly reduced under a warming climate, as compared to a simulation of the present-day climate. The reduction in the subduction volume was quantitatively estimated at about 40 Sv and was found to be= primarily induced by the decreasing of the lateral induction term due to a shallower winter mixed layer depth. The shrinking of the winter mixed layer would result from intensified stratification caused by increased heat input into the ocean under a warming climate. A reduction in subduction associated with the vertical pumping term was estimated at about 5 Sv. F^rther, in the Southern Ocean, a significant reduction in subduction was estimated at around 24 Sv, indicating a substantial contribution to the weakening of global subduction.

关键词： subduction rate mixed layer depth global warming