Impacts of global warming on southern California's winegrape climate suitability

作     者：Corrie MONTE VERDE Fernando DE SALES Corrie MONTEVERDE;Fernando DE SALES

作者机构：Geography DepartmentSan Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA92182USA Center for Climate and Sustainability StudiesSan Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA92182USA 

出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第11卷第3期

页      面：279-293页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 0709[理学-地质学] 07[理学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0704[理学-天文学] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：supported by The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Science Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies(NOAA-CESSRST)under the Cooperative Agreement Grant NA 16SEC4810008. 

主　　题：Global warming Winegrape suitability Regional climate modeling Bioclimatic indices Dynamical downscaling 

摘      要：Southern California has seen a resurgence of winegrowing regions in the past few decades,however the future of winegrape climatic suitability in the area has not been exhaustively explored.This study evaluated the future climate suitability for the cultivation of winegrape and potential global warming impacts on southern California s winegrowing regions through a series of high-resolution surface air temperature and precipitation projections obtained with the WRF-SSIB regional climate model.Results reveal that by mid-21st-century the surface air temperature will increase by approximately 1.2℃,while average precipitation will decrease by as much as 11%in the southern winegrowing areas under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change high greenhouse-gas emissions scenario.Evaluation of bioclimatic suitability indices indicate increases in heat accumulation for all major winegrowing areas;including an increase of about 10% in growing-degree day,while morning low temperatures in September may experience increases of approximately 11% in the future,thus impacting negatively the ripening stage of grapevines and leading to changes in wine composition and quality.Additionally,the extent of areas classified under the cool to warm climate suitability categories could decrease by nearly 42% in the study area by 2050.Conditions in southern California are already warm and dry for viticulture and continuing heat accumulation increase,along with rainfall reduction,could potentially place additional stress to winegrape crop in the area,including advanced phenological timing and moisture deficit stress that could lead to decreases in yield.The projected decline in viticulture suitability highlights the need for adaptive capacity within this sector to mitigate the impacts of global warming.Possible mitigating strategies include planting hotter climate grape varieties,moving vineyards to regions that are more suitable in the future,and adopting dry-farming techniques.