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Reconstruction of Conceptual Prediction Model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2014年第4期57卷 3047-3061页

作者： ZHAO JunHu FENG GuoLin National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University

With the influence of global warming,the global climate has undergone significant inter-decadal variation since the late *** El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has been the strongest signal for predicting global climate inter-annual variability,its relation with the summer rainfall in China has significantly changed,and its indicative function on the summer rainfall in China has *** has led to a significant decrease in the accuracy rate of early conceptual prediction models for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern *** the basis of the difference analysis of atmospheric circulation system configuration in summer,as well as the interaction of ocean and atmospheric in previous winter between two phases,*** and after the significant global warming(1951 to 1978 and 1979 to 2012,respectively),we concluded that(1)Under different inter-decadal backgrounds,the atmospheric circulations that impacted the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China showed consistency,but in the latter phase of the global warming,the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)was on the strong side,the position of which was in the south,and the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes was active,while the polar vortex extended to the south,and meridional circulation *** circulation background may have been conducive to the increase of the circulation frequency of Patterns II and III,and the decrease of the circulation frequency of Pattern I,thus leading to more Patterns II and III and fewer Pattern I in the summer rainfall of eastern China.(2)In the former phase,the corresponding previous winter SST fields of different rainfall patterns showed visible *** impact of ENSO on North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)was great,and the identification ability of which on Patterns I and II of summer rainfall was *** the latter phase,this identification ability decreased,while the impact of ENSO on the Pacific/North Amer

关键词： global warming climate change Three Rainfall Patterns ENSO NPO PNA prediction model

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Air temperature feedback and its contribution to global warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2018年第10期61卷 1491-1509页

作者： Xiaoming HU Ming CAI Song YANG Sergio A.SEJAS School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275 China Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Guangzhou 510275 China Department of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Florida State University Tallahassee 32306 USA Institute of Earth Climate and Environment System Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275 China NASA Langley Research Center Climate Science Branch Hampton 03842 USA

Air temperature feedback results from the thermal-radiative coupling between the atmosphere and the surface and plays an important role in surface energy balance. This paper reveals the contribution of air temperature feedback to the global warming from 1980 to 2000. The air temperature feedback kernel, evaluated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, is used to discuss the physical mechanism for air temperature feedback, the dependency of the strength of air temperature feedback on the climatological spatial distributions of air temperature, water vapor and cloud content, and the contributions of air temperature feedback to rapid global warming. The coupling between temperature feedback and each of the external forcings and individual feedback processes will amplify the anomaly of direct energy flux convergence at the surface induced by the external forcings and individual processes. The air temperature feedback amplifies the initial surface warming due to the increase in CO2 concentration, ice and snow melting, increase in water vapor, and change in ocean heat storage. It also amplifies the surface warming due to the longwave radiaitve forcing associated with the increase in cloud cover, which acts to suppress the cooling of the shortwave effect of cloud forcing. Overall, temperature feedback plays an important role in the global warming from 1980 to2000, as the net positive contribution to the perturbation of global mean energy flux at the surface from the air temperature feedback is larger than the net negative contribution from external forcing and all non-temperature feedbacks.

关键词： global warming Air temperature feedback Surface energy budget

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Could CMIP6 climate models reproduce the early-2000s global warming slowdown?

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第6期64卷 853-865页

作者： Meng WEI Qi SHU Zhenya SONG Yajuan SONG Xiaodan YANG Yongqing GUO Xinfang LI Fangli QIAO First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao266061China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan316000China

The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms,and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)cannot simulate ***,we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent global warming slowdown,and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the *** results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5,most of them still fail to reproduce the warming *** considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed *** is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual,interdecadal,and multidecadal *** contrast,the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three keyscale natural *** work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.

关键词： CMIP6 climate models global warming global warming slowdown Hiatus Climate natural variability Anthropogenic warming trend

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Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity

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Science Bulletin 2017年第24期62卷 1673-1680页

作者： Xiaoxin Wang Dabang Jiang Xianmei Lang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5(RCP8.5) scenario. Compared to preindustrial conditions, more statistically significant extreme temperatures, precipitations, and dry spells are expected in the 21 st century. Cold extremes decrease and warm extremes increase in a warmer world, and cold extremes tend to be more sensitive to global warming than the warm ones. When the global mean temperature increases, cold nights, cold days, and warm nights all display nonlinear relationships with it,such as the weakening of the link projected after 3 °C global warming, while the other indices generally exhibit differently, with linear relationships. Additionally, the relative changes in the indices related to extreme precipitation show significantly consistent linear changes with the global warming *** with the precipitation extremes, changes in temperature extremes are more strongly related to the global mean temperature changes. For the projection of the extreme precipitation changes, models show higher uncertainty than that in extreme temperature changes, and the uncertainty for the precipitation extremes becomes more remarkable when the global warming exceeds 5 °C.

关键词： Projection global warming Climate extremes Linkage Uncertainty

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Diatom Response to global warming in Douhu Lake,Southeast China

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2021年第2期95卷 638-647页

作者： LI Jingjing WANG Luo CAO Qi Patrick RIOUAL LEI Guoliang CAI Binggui ZHANG Jiaoyang ZOU Yafei YAN Yao WAN Xiaoqiao XIAO Jule School of Earth Sciences and Resources China University of Geosciences(Beijing)Beijing 100083China Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Geographical Sciences Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007China CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment Beijing 100044China Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Ecogeographical Processes of the Ministry of Education Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007China Institute of Geography Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

A large number of lacustrine sedimentary records indicate that global warming is the main factor leading to significant changes in diatom communities in lakes of the northern ***,due to the intensification of human activities since 1850,some scholars have emphasized that the increasing lake trophic level may be the main reason for the changes in diatom *** debate is *** order to avoid falling into the complex relationship between diatom changes and the seasonal cycle that characterizes lakes in mid and high latitudes,we chose a lake located at a low latitude,where the relationship between diatoms and temperature is not indirect but *** diatom record spans the past ca.100 years and reveals that the abundance of Aulacoseira granulata increased from 1900 until 1985,replacing the previously dominant Aulacoseira *** changes are in agreement with the increasing trend in global *** 1985,the percentages of the small-celled Discostella stelligera and the benthic diatom Navicula heimansioides have increased,while Aulacoseira granulata has *** latest shift is caused by further global *** conclude that warming is the main factor leading to changing diatom communities in Douhu Lake.

关键词： diatom global warming Douhu Lake China

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Changes of the hydrological cycle in two typical Chinese monsoonal temperate glacier basins,： A response to global warming？

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2012年第5期22卷 771-780页

作者： PANG Hongxi LI Zongxing Wilfred H. THEAKSTONE Key Laboratory of Coast and Island Development of Ministry of Education School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China Gansu Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering Research Center/Alashan Desert Eco-hydrology Ex-perimental Research Station Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research InstituteCAS Lanzhou 730000 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China School of Environment and Development University of Manchester Manchester M13 9PL England UK

Studying the response to warming of hydrological systems in Chin＇s temperate glacier region is essential in order to provide information required for sustainable develop- ment. The results indicated the warming climate has had an impact on the hydrological cycle. As the glacier area subject to melting has increased and the ablation seasor has become longer, the contribution of meltwater to annual river discharge has increased. The earlier onset of ablation at higher elevation glaciers has resulted in the period of minimum discharge occurring earlier in the year. Seasonal runoff variations are dominated by snow and glacier melt, and an increase of meltwater has resulted in changes of the annual water cycle in the Lijiang Basin and Hailuogou Basin. The increase amplitude of runoff in the downstream re- gion of the glacial area is much stronger than that of precipitation, resulting from the promi- nent increase of meltwater from glacier region in two basins. Continued observations in the glacierized basins should be undertaken in order to monitor changes, to reveal the relation- ships between climate, glaciers, hydrology and water supplies, and to assist in maintaining sustainable regional development.

关键词： global warming hydrological cycle temperate glacier basins

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Possible Impact of global warming on the Evolution of Hemagglutinins from Influenza A Viruses

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Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2011年第1期24卷 62-67页

作者： YAN ShaoMin WU Guang National Engineering Research Center for Non-food Biorefinery Guangxi Academy of Sciences Nanning 530007 Guangxi China Computational Mutation Project DreamSciTech Consulting Shenzhen 518054 Guangdong China

Objective To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. Methods 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time‐series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point‐to‐point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. Results The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Conclusion global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.

关键词： Evolution global warming Hemagglutinin Influenza A virus Mutation

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The spatiotemporal responses of Populus euphratica to global warming in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2015

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2018年第5期28卷 579-594页

作者：张文霞刘普幸冯青荣汪天广王天强 College of Geography and Environmental Science Northwest Normal University

Daily average temperature data from 48 meteorological stations in Chinese oases that are within the distribution area of Populus euphratica were analyzed to determine the spatiotemporal responses of this tree to climate change. Specifically, the start and end date as well as the number of days that comprised the growing season were analyzed with a multi-year trend line and using the Mann-Kendall mutation test, inverse distance weighted interpolation(IDW) in the software Arc GIS, a Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. The results of this study show that, over the last 56 years, the start date of the P. euphratica growing season has advanced, while the end date has been postponed, and the number of days that comprise the growing season have gradually increased. The changing trend rates recovered in this analysis for these three time slices are –1.34 d/10 a, 1.33 d/10 a, and 2.66 d/10 a(α ≥ 0.001), respectively. Data show that while spatial disparity is extremely significant, it is nevertheless the case that along a southwest-to-northeast transect of Chinese oases, the later the start date of the P. euphratica season, the sooner the end data and the shorter the growing season. Mutations points in start and end date, as well as for the growing season overall were observed in 2001, 1989, and 1996, respectively, and the data presented in this paper show that, in particular, the date of this end of this period is most sensitive to climate warming. Growing season cycles for P. euphratica are between 3.56 years and 7.14 years, consistent with the periodicity of El Ni?o events, while a start date cycle between 3.56 years and 4.28 years is consistent with atmospheric circulation cyclicity. The causal analysis presented in this paper shows that the Asian polar vortex area index(APVAI), the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau index(TPI), the westerly circulation index(WCI), and carbon dioxide emissions(CDE) are the main factors influencing spatiotemporal changes in the gro

关键词： Populus euphratica annual growing season global warming responses to climate change Chinese oases

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Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第4期12卷 499-507页

作者： HU Xiao-Ming MA Jie-Ru YING Jun CAI Ming KONG Yun-Qi School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai519082China State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic AdministrationHangzhou310012China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519082China Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou730000China Department of Earth Oceanand Atmospheric ScienceFlorida State UniversityTallahassee32306USA

The emergent constraint approach is a way of using multi-model ensembles to identify the linkage between current/past climate variability and future climate changes,which has been widely used for narrowing down the uncertainty of multi-model projections of future climate *** models of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)show a much stronger Arctic wanning signal but with a larger inter-model *** this study,we find that the projected Arctic warming made by multi-models in CMIP6 is positively correlated with the simulated global warming trend during the period of 1981-2011 in historical *** enables us to tighter constraints to future warming in the Arctic by using the observed global warming during the instrument *** fact that CMIP6 models tend to overestimate the trend of global mean surface temperature during 1981-2011,therefore,would imply a relative weak Arctic warming compared to the CMIP6 median warming projection.

关键词： CMIP6 Arctic warming projection global warming Observational constraint

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Intensified Eastward and Northward Propagation of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation over the Equatorial Indian Ocean in a global warming Scenario

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第1期30卷 167-174页

作者：杨静包庆王晓聪 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Northward propagation in summer and eastward propagation in winter are two distinguished features of tropical intraseasonal oscillation （TISO） over the equatorial Indian Ocean. According to numerical modeling results, under a global warming scenario, both propagations were intensified. The enhanced northward propagation in summer can be attributed to the enhanced atmosphere-ocean interaction and the strengthened mean southerly wind; and the intensified eastward propagation in winter is associated with the enhanced convection-wind coupling process and the strengthened equatorial Kevin wave. Future changes of TISO propagations need to be explored in more climate models.

关键词： northward propagation eastward propagation tropical intraseasonal oscillation global warming

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