Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations
作者机构：School of Atmospheric SciencesSun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai519082China State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment DynamicsSecond Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic AdministrationHangzhou310012China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai519082China Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of EducationCollege of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou730000China Department of EarthOceanand Atmospheric ScienceFlorida State UniversityTallahassee32306USA
出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2021年第12卷第4期
页 面：499-507页
核心收录：
学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 0709[理学-地质学] 07[理学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0704[理学-天文学] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术]
基 金：grants from National Key R&D Program of China(2019YFA0607000) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41805050,42075028,41922044,42088101,41722502 and 41521004)。
主 题：CMIP6 Arctic warming projection Global warming Observational constraint
摘 要：The emergent constraint approach is a way of using multi-model ensembles to identify the linkage between current/past climate variability and future climate changes,which has been widely used for narrowing down the uncertainty of multi-model projections of future climate change.Climate models of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)show a much stronger Arctic wanning signal but with a larger inter-model spread.In this study,we find that the projected Arctic warming made by multi-models in CMIP6 is positively correlated with the simulated global warming trend during the period of 1981-2011 in historical runs.This enables us to tighter constraints to future warming in the Arctic by using the observed global warming during the instrument era.The fact that CMIP6 models tend to overestimate the trend of global mean surface temperature during 1981-2011,therefore,would imply a relative weak Arctic warming compared to the CMIP6 median warming projection.
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