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Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought risk Under Climate Change Based on the gepic-vulnerability-risk model

International Journal of Disaster risk Science 2021年第3期12卷 428-442页

作者： Yuanyuan Yin Yuan Gao Degen Lin Lei Wang Weidong Ma Jing’ai Wang Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101China School of Geography Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China College of Geography and Environmental Sciences Zhejiang Normal UniversityJinhua 321004China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China School of Geographical Science Qinghai Normal UniversityXining 81008China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Drought is projected to become more frequent and increasingly severe under climate change in many agriculturally important ***,few studies have assessed and mapped the future global crop drought risk—defined as the occurrence probability and likelihood of yield losses from drought—at high *** support of the gepic-vulnerability-risk model,we propose an analytical framework to quantify and map the future global-scale maize drought risk at a 0.5°*** this framework,the model can be calibrated and validated using datasets from in situ observations(for example,yield statistics,losses caused by drought)and the *** stress and drought risk under climate change can then be *** evaluate the applicability of the framework,a global-scale assessment of maize drought risk under 1.5℃warming was *** 1.5℃warming,the maize drought risk is projected to be regionally variable(high in the midlatitudes and low in the tropics and subtropics),with only a minor negative(-0.93%)impact on global maize *** results are consistent with previous studies of drought impacts on maize yield of major agricultural countries around the ***,the framework can act as a practical tool for global-scale,future-oriented crop drought risk assessment,and the results provide theoretical support for adaptive planning strategies for drought.

关键词： Climate change Future-oriented risk assessment gepic-vulnerability-risk model Maize drought risk Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)scenarios

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