Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model

作     者：Yuanyuan Yin Yuan Gao Degen Lin Lei Wang Weidong Ma Jing’ai Wang Yuanyuan Yin;Yuan Gao;Degen Lin;Lei Wang;Weidong Ma;Jing'ai Wang

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface ProcessesInstitute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth SciencesChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101China School of GeographyFaculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China College of Geography and Environmental SciencesZhejiang Normal UniversityJinhua 321004China University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China School of Geographical ScienceQinghai Normal UniversityXining 81008China Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 (国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第12卷第3期

页      面：428-442页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 09[农学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0904[农学-植物保护] 0901[农学-作物学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41671501 41901046 91747201) 

主　　题：Climate change Future-oriented risk assessment GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk model Maize drought risk Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)scenarios 

摘      要：Drought is projected to become more frequent and increasingly severe under climate change in many agriculturally important ***,few studies have assessed and mapped the future global crop drought risk—defined as the occurrence probability and likelihood of yield losses from drought—at high *** support of the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk model,we propose an analytical framework to quantify and map the future global-scale maize drought risk at a 0.5°*** this framework,the model can be calibrated and validated using datasets from in situ observations(for example,yield statistics,losses caused by drought)and the *** stress and drought risk under climate change can then be *** evaluate the applicability of the framework,a global-scale assessment of maize drought risk under 1.5℃warming was *** 1.5℃warming,the maize drought risk is projected to be regionally variable(high in the midlatitudes and low in the tropics and subtropics),with only a minor negative(-0.93%)impact on global maize *** results are consistent with previous studies of drought impacts on maize yield of major agricultural countries around the ***,the framework can act as a practical tool for global-scale,future-oriented crop drought risk assessment,and the results provide theoretical support for adaptive planning strategies for drought.