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Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 22-30页

作者： Philip E. BETT Adam A. SCAIFE Chaofan LI Chris HEWITT Nicola GOLDING Peiqun ZHANG Nick DUNSTONE Doug M. SMITH Hazel E. THORNTON Riyu LU Hong-Li REN Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter Devon EX4 4QF UK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from E1 Nifio to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong E1 Nifio in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall ENSO hydroelectricity

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flood modeling of Sungai Pinang Watershed under the impact of urbanization

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热带气旋研究与评论：英文版 2021年第2期10卷 96-105页

作者： Sazali Osman Lingfang Chen Abdul Hafiz Mohammad Lixue Xing Yangbo Chen National flood forecasting and Warning Centre Department of Irrigation and DrainageKuala LumpurMalaysia School of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina

Urbanization has been a worldwide development trend,which regulates river courses,impervious surfaces and drainage *** causes hydrological effects,including increased runoff volumes,peak discharges and flow *** manuscript selects the Malaysian Sungai Pinang watershed as a case study to illustrate these land use,channel and flooding changes of Asian coastal *** Landsat satellite remote sensing images were first used to estimate the land use/land cover changes of the Sungai Pinang watershed by using SVM algorithm,and the results shows the urbanization was very rapid in the past decades,with the urbanization rate reached 46.41%in 2018 based on the build area *** channel characteristics also changed significantly,from natural river to concrete *** flood resilience measures for coastal cities experiencing urbanization are also proposed for development and flood ***,a flood forecasting model of the Sungai Pinang watershed is established *** simulation results of the Liuxihe model constructed in this study conforms to hydrological regularities and can provide a technical reference for flood control and disaster ***,it is necessary to pay attention to the uncertainty of the forecast results.

关键词： flood forecasting Liuxihe model Urbanization Pinang watershed

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flood routing model incorporating intensive streambed infiltration

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Science China Earth Sciences 2015年第2期58卷 718-726页

作者： CHENG Liang WANG ZongZhi HU SiYi WANG YinTang JIN JuLiang ZHOU YuLiang State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute School of Civil Engineering Hefei University of Technology

flood routing models are critical to flood forecasting and confluence calculations. In the streams that dry up and disconnect from groundwater, the streambed infiltration is intensive and has a significant effect on flood wave movement. Streambed infiltration should be considered in flood routing. A flood routing model incorporating intensive streambed infiltration is proposed. In the model a streambed infiltration simulation method based on soil infiltration theory is developed. In this method the Horton equation is used to calculate infiltration capacity. A trial-and-error method is developed to calculate infiltration rate and determine whether the flood wave can travel downstream. A formula is derived to calculate infiltration flow per unit length. The Muskingum-Cunge method with streambed infiltration flow as lateral outflow is used for flood routing. The proposed model is applied to the stream from the downstream of the Yuecheng Reservoir to the Caixiaozhuang Hydrometric Station in the Zhangwei River of the Haihe River Basin. Simulation results show that the accuracy of the model is high, and the infiltration simulation method can represent infiltration processes well. The proposed model is simple and practical for flood simulation and forecasting, and can be used in river confluence calculations in a rainfall-runoff model for arid and semiarid regions.

关键词： flood simulation flood forecasting flood routing streambed inf'dtration Muskingum-Cunge method Haihe River Basin

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Key Developments in Indian Irrigation Sector

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(A) 2020年第5期9卷 184-187页

作者： Sabarna Roy Business Development Applications TechnologyEngineering and Strategy DepartmentSenior Vice PresidentElectrosteel GroupKolkata-700017India

The key developments in Indian Irrigation sector have been presented by briefly discussing the following topics:*** Indian Irrigation Challenges and Way *** Interventions in Water Sector in India(Maharashtra’s Example).*** and Activities of Maharashtra Water Resource Regulatory Authority(MWRRA).*** Achievements of *** National Committee On Irrigation and Drainage(INCID).***,Command Area Development and Micro Irrigation in *** Management and Its *** Building.

关键词： Irrigation developments MWRRA INCID CWC water efficiency flood forecasting sustainability Micro-Irrigation

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