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Impacts of seismic activity and climatic change on Chinese history in the recent millennium

Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第11期32卷 2328-2348页

作者： FAN Jiawei JIANG Hanchao XU Hongyan ZHANG Wei State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics Institute of GeologyChina Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100029China Xinjiang Pamir Intracontinental Subduction National Observation and Research Station Beijing 100029China Urumqi Institute of Central Asia Earthquake China Earthquake AdministrationUrumqi 830011China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsCASBeijing 100029China

General history of disasters in China suggests that China has frequently experienced two major natural disasters in its long history,one is from catastrophic earthquake events,and the other is from extreme climatic events,due to its unique active tectonic environment and climatic *** these two major natural disasters have caused great damage to human society,it remains unclear whether and how they affect Chinese dynasty alternation on decadal(emperor)*** on detailed comparisons between abrupt climatic changes,catastrophic seismic activities,and the history of Chinese dynasty alternation from 1000–2000 AD,we conclude that on decadal timescales,extreme drought(and/or flood)events could indeed significantly reduce agricultural production,cause severe food shortages and famine,and result in increases in population exile,rising food prices and inflation,and insufficient supplies for military defense,which could exceed social resilience and eventually lead to financial risks and social upheavals of the *** addition,catastrophic seismic events in the densely populated,agricultural areas of China,including the 1303 surface wave magnitude(M_(s))8.0 Hongtong earthquake,the 1556 M_(s)8.25Huaxian earthquake and the 1920 M_(s)8.5 Haiyuan earthquake,caused more than 200,000casualties and millions of victims to live in exile which was almost equivalent to the order of magnitude of those extreme climatic events-induced *** secondary geological hazards related to the earthquakes(e.g.,extensive landslides and soil erosion),which could last for decades,caused more casualties and reduced food ***,great plague spread caused by the casualties could significantly increase psychological panic among the survivors,resulting in social ***,catastrophic seismic events could also accelerate the collapse of the dynasties(e.g.,the Ming dynasty)without immediate mitigation *** study indicates that catastro

关键词： catastrophic seismic activity extreme climatic event agricultural production social stability Chinese dynasty alternation

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Intercomparison of Precipitation Simulated by Regional Climate Models over East Asia in 1997 and 1998

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2007年第4期24卷 539-554页

作者： Dong-Kyou LEE William J.GUTOWSKI Hyun-Suk KANG Chun-Ji KIM School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Seoul National UniversitySeoulKorea Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State UniversityAmesUSAJr Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yonsei UniversitySeoulKorea.School of Earth and Environmental SciencesSeoul National UniversitySeoulKorea

Regional climate simulations in Asia from May 1997 to August 1998 were performed using the Seoul National University regional climate model （SNURCM） and Iowa State University regional climate model （***5/LSM）, which were developed by coupling the NCAR/Land Surface Model （LSM） and the Mesoscale Model （MM5）. However, for physical processes of precipitation, the SNURCM used the Grell scheme for the convective parameterization scheme （CPS） and the simple ice scheme for the explicit moisture scheme （EMS）, while the ***5/LSM used the Betts-Miller scheme for CPS and the mixed phase scheme for EMS.The simulated precipitation patterns and amounts over East Asia for the extreme climatic summer in 1997 （relative drought conditions） and 1998 （relative flood conditions） were especially focused upon. The ***5/LSM simulated more precipitation than was observed in 1997 due to more moisture and cloud water in the lower levels, despite weak upward motion. In the SNURCM, strong upward motion resulted in more precipitation than that was observed in 1998, with more moisture and cloud water in the middle levels. In the ***5/LSM, weak upward motion, unchanged moisture in the lower troposphere, and the decrease in latent heat flux at the surface increased convective precipitation only by 3% for the 1998 summer event. In the SNURCM, strong upward motion, the increase in moisture in the lower troposphere, and the increase in latent heat flux at the surface increased convective precipitation by 48% for the summer of 1998. The main differences between both simulations were moisture availability and horizontal momentum transport in the lower troposphere, which were also strongly influenced by large-scale forcing.

关键词： regional climate simulation summer precipitation variability extreme climatic event physical process

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Spatial and Temporal Variations of extreme Climate events in Xinjiang, China during 1961-2010

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American Journal of Climate Change 2016年第3期5卷 360-372页

作者： Xiangling Tang Xin Lv Yineng Ouyang Geography Department Natural Science of Shihezi University Shihezi China Production and Construction Corps Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecological Agriculture Shihezi China College of Science Shihezi University Shihezi China

Daily maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation data from 35 weather stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2010 were examined using kriging spatial analysis, linear tendency estimation, and correlation analysis. Temporal trends and spatial distribution patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation in this area were then analyzed using 12 extreme temperature and 7 extreme precipitation indices. The following results were obtained. 1) Over the past 50 years, extreme cold indices, excepting the monthly maximum temperature minimum value and monthly extreme minimum temperature, showed slight decreasing trends. These indices include the maximum number of consecutive frost days, icy days, cold-nighttime days, and cold-daytime days. 2) extreme warm events generally showed significant increasing trends (P extreme maximum temperature, and monthly minimum temperature maximum value. 3) The spatial distributions of threshold values of extreme warm and cold events showed notable regional differences. A reducing trend of extreme cold events and an increase in extreme warm events has occurred mainly in northern Xinjiang. 4) For the past 50 years, six extreme precipitation indices, aside from consecutive dry days, showed significant increasing trends in Xinjiang (P extreme precipitation events was more rapid at northern than at southern sites. extreme precipitation intensity was greater in mountainous areas, and precipitation frequency increased in the plain region. 5) Factor analysis revealed good correlations among extreme temperature indices, excepting extreme temperature days.

关键词： Xinjiang Area extreme climatic event Spatial Change

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