Impacts of seismic activity and climatic change on Chinese history in the recent millennium

作     者：FAN Jiawei JIANG Hanchao XU Hongyan ZHANG Wei FAN Jiawei;JIANG Hanchao;XU Hongyan;ZHANG Wei

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Earthquake DynamicsInstitute of GeologyChina Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100029China Xinjiang Pamir Intracontinental Subduction National Observation and Research StationBeijing 100029China Urumqi Institute of Central Asia EarthquakeChina Earthquake AdministrationUrumqi 830011China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric ChemistryInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsCASBeijing 100029China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 (地理学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第32卷第11期

页      面：2328-2348页

核心收录：

学科分类：060204[历史学-中国古代史] 070801[理学-固体地球物理学] 06[历史学] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0602[历史学-中国史] 

基　　金：National Nonprofit Fundamental Research Grant of China Institute of Geology China Earthquake Administration No.IGCEA2009 

主　　题：catastrophic seismic activity extreme climatic event agricultural production social stability Chinese dynasty alternation 

摘      要：General history of disasters in China suggests that China has frequently experienced two major natural disasters in its long history,one is from catastrophic earthquake events,and the other is from extreme climatic events,due to its unique active tectonic environment and climatic *** these two major natural disasters have caused great damage to human society,it remains unclear whether and how they affect Chinese dynasty alternation on decadal(emperor)*** on detailed comparisons between abrupt climatic changes,catastrophic seismic activities,and the history of Chinese dynasty alternation from 1000–2000 AD,we conclude that on decadal timescales,extreme drought(and/or flood)events could indeed significantly reduce agricultural production,cause severe food shortages and famine,and result in increases in population exile,rising food prices and inflation,and insufficient supplies for military defense,which could exceed social resilience and eventually lead to financial risks and social upheavals of the *** addition,catastrophic seismic events in the densely populated,agricultural areas of China,including the 1303 surface wave magnitude(M_(s))8.0 Hongtong earthquake,the 1556 M_(s)8.25Huaxian earthquake and the 1920 M_(s)8.5 Haiyuan earthquake,caused more than 200,000casualties and millions of victims to live in exile which was almost equivalent to the order of magnitude of those extreme climatic events-induced *** secondary geological hazards related to the earthquakes(e.g.,extensive landslides and soil erosion),which could last for decades,caused more casualties and reduced food ***,great plague spread caused by the casualties could significantly increase psychological panic among the survivors,resulting in social ***,catastrophic seismic events could also accelerate the collapse of the dynasties(e.g.,the Ming dynasty)without immediate mitigation *** study indicates that catastro