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modelling the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission from mobility maps

Infectious Disease modelling 2022年第3期7卷 400-418页

作者： Umair Hasan Hamad Al Jassmi Abdessamad Tridane Anderson Stanciole Farida Al-Hosani Bashir Aden Emirates Centre for Mobility Research United Arab Emirates UniversityAl Ain15551United Arab Emirates Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering United Arab Emirates UniversityAl Ain15551United Arab Emirates Mathematical Sciences Department College of ScienceUnited Arab Emirates UniversityAl Ain15551United Arab Emirates Department of Health Abu DhabiUnited Arab Emirates Abu Dhabi Public Health Center Abu DhabiUnited Arab Emirates

The world has faced the COVID-19 pandemic for over two years now,and it is time to revisit the lessons learned from lockdown measures for theoretical and practical epidemiological *** interlink between these measures and the resulting change in mobility(a predictor of the disease transmission contact rate)is *** thus propose a new method for assessing the efficacy of various non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPI)and examine the aptness of incorporating mobility data for epidemiological *** mobility maps for the United Arab Emirates are used as input datasets from the first infection in the country to mid-Oct *** was limited to the pre-vaccination period as this paper focuses on assessing the different NPIs at an early epidemic stage when no vaccines are available and NPIs are the only way to reduce the reproduction number(R_(0)).We developed a travel network density parameterβ_(t)to provide an estimate of NPI impact on mobility *** the infection-fatality ratio and time lag(onset-to-death),a Bayesian probabilistic model is adapted to calculate the change in epidemic development withβ*** showed that the change inβ_(t)clearly impacted R_(0).The three lockdowns strongly affected the growth of transmission rate and collectively reduced R_(0)by 78%before the restrictions were *** model forecasted daily infections and deaths by 2%and 3%fractional *** also projected what-if scenarios for different implementation protocols of each *** developed model can be applied to identify the most efficient NPIs for confronting new COVID-19 waves and the spread of variants,as well as for future pandemics.

关键词： Non-pharmaceutical interventions COVID-19 epidemiological modelling Mobility maps

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An assessment of the potential impact of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand

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Infectious Disease modelling 2022年第2期7卷 94-105页

作者： Giorgia Vattiato Oliver Maclaren Audrey Lustig Rachelle N.Binny Shaun C.Hendy Michael J.Plank School of Mathematics and Statistics University of CanterburyChristchurchNew Zealand Department of Physics University of AucklandAucklandNew Zealand Manaaki Whenua LincolnNew Zealand Department of Engineering Science University of AucklandAucklandNew Zealand

New Zealand delayed the introduction of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 into the community by the continued use of strict border controls through to January *** allowed time for vaccination rates to increase and the roll out of third doses of the vaccine(boosters)to *** also meant more data on the characteristics of Omicron became available prior to the first cases of community *** we present a mathematical model of an Omicron epidemic,incorporating the effects of the booster roll out and waning of vaccine-induced immunity,and based on estimates of vaccine effectiveness and disease severity from international *** model considers differing levels of immunity against infection,severe illness and death,and ignores waning of infection-induced *** model was used to provide an assessment of the potential impact of an Omicron wave in the New Zealand population,which helped inform government preparedness and *** the time the modelling was carried out,the date of introduction of Omicron into the New Zealand community was *** therefore simulated outbreaks with different start dates,as well as investigating different levels of booster *** found that an outbreak starting on 1 February or 1 March led to a lower health burden than an outbreak starting on 1 January because of increased booster coverage,particularly in older age *** also found that outbreaks starting later in the year led to worse health outcomes than an outbreak starting on 1 *** is because waning immunity in older groups started to outweigh the increased protection from higher booster coverage in younger *** an outbreak starting on 1 February and with high booster uptake,the number of occupied hospital beds in the model peaked between 800 and 3,300 depending on assumed transmission *** conclude that combining an accelerated booster programme with public health measures to flatten the curve are key to avoid overwhelming the hea

关键词： COVID-19 epidemiological modelling Immunity Infectious diseases Public health Vaccination

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Adult female syphilis prevalence,congenital syphilis case incidence and adverse birth outcomes,Mongolia 2000e2016:Estimates using the Spectrum STI tool

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Infectious Disease modelling 2018年第1期3卷 13-22页

作者： Erdenetungalag Enkhbat Eline L.Korenromp Jugderjav Badrakh Setsen Zayasaikhan Purevsuren Baya Enkhjargal Orgiokhuu Narantuya Jadambaa Sergelen Munkhbaatar Delgermaa Khishigjargal Narantuya Khad Guy Mahiane Naoko Ishikawa Davaalkham Jagdagsuren Melanie M.Taylor Mongolia National Centre for Communicable Disease AIDS/STI Surveillance and Research DepartmentUlaanbaatar210648Bayanzurkh DistrictNam-Yan-Ju StreetMongolia Avenir Health GenevaSwitzerland1 route de Morillons/150 Route de Ferney(WCCOffice 164)PO Box 2100CH-1211 Geneva 2Switzerland World Health Organization Post Box 663Ulaanbaatar-13Mongolia Mongolia Global Fund Supported Project on AIDS and TB Peace Avenue 13/3Sukhbaatar DistrictUlaanbaatarMongolia Mongolia Center for Health Development Enkhtaivan Street-13bSukhbaatar DistrictUlaanbaatarMongolia Avenir Health 655 Winding Brook DriveGlastonburyCTCT-06033USA World Health Organization Western Pacific Regional OfficePO Box 2932(United Nations Avenue)1000 ManilaPhilippines World Health Organization Department of Reproductive Health and Research8 Avenue Appia(L152)1211 GenevaSwitzerland Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Atlanta GAUSA

Introduction:Mongolia's health ministry prioritizes control of Sexually Transmitted Infections,including syphilis screening and treatment in antenatal care(ANC).Methods:Adult syphilis prevalence trends were fitted using the Spectrum-STI estimation tool,using data from ANC surveys and routine screening over *** were combined with programmatic data to estimate numbers of treated and untreated pregnant women with syphilis and associated incidence congenital syphilis(CS)and CS-attributable adverse birth outcomes(ABO),which we compared with CS case ***:Syphilis prevalence in pregnant women was estimated at 1.7%in 2000 and 3.0%in *** estimated 652 CS cases,of which 410 ABO,in *** larger,annually increasing numbers of CS cases and ABO were estimated to have been prevented:1654 cases,of which 789 ABO in 2016thanks to increasing coverages of ANC(99%in 2016),ANC-based screening(97%in 2016)and treatment of women diagnosed(81%in 2016).The 42 CS cases reported nationally over 2016(liveborn infants only)represented 27%of liveborn infants with clinical CS,but only 7%of estimated CS cases among women found syphilis-infected in ANC,and 6%of all estimated CS cases including those born to women with undiagnosed ***/Conclusion:Mongolia's ANC-based syphilis screening program is reducing CS,but maternal prevalence remains *** eliminate CS(target:<50 cases per 100,000 live births),Mongolia should strengthen ANC services,limiting losses during referral for treatment,and under-diagnosis of CS including still-births and neonatal deaths,and expand syphilis screening and prevention programs.

关键词： Syphilis Congenital syphilis Surveillance Screening Antenatal care epidemiological modelling

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An evaluation of mathematical models for the outbreak of COVID-19

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Precision Clinical Medicine 2020年第2期3卷 85-93页

作者： Ning Wang Yuting Fu Hu Zhang Huipeng Shi Mathematical Institute University of OxfordRadcliffe Observatory QuarterWoodstock RoadOxford OX26GGUK Department of Gastroenterology&Center for Inflammatory Bowel Disease West China HospitalSichuan UniversityChengdu 610041China Department of Orthopaedics Shanghai 6th People’s HospitalShanghai Jiaotong UniversityShanghai 201306China

Mathematical modelling performs a vital part in estimating and controlling the recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).In this epidemic,most countries impose severe intervention measures to contain the spread of *** policymakers are forced to make difficult decisions to leverage between health and economic *** and when tomake clinical and public health decisions in an epidemic situation is a challenging *** most appropriate solution is based on scientific evidence,which is mainly dependent on data and *** one of the most critical problems during this crisis is whether we can develop reliable epidemiological models to forecast the evolution of the virus and estimate the effectiveness of various intervention measures and their impacts on the *** are numerous types of mathematical model for epidemiological *** this paper,we present some critical reviews on mathematical models for the outbreak of *** elementary models are presented as an initial formulation for an *** give some basic concepts,notations,and foundation for epidemiological *** related works are also introduced and evaluated by considering epidemiological features such as disease tendency,latent effects,susceptibility,basic reproduction numbers,asymptomatic infections,herd immunity,and impact of the interventions.

关键词： COVID-19 2019-nCoV SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus epidemiological modelling SIR model SEIR model case fatality ratio basic reproduction numbers asymptomatic infections herd immunity intervention measures

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