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Exploring individuals’ effective preventive measures against epidemics through reinforcement learning

Chinese Physics B 2021年第4期30卷 640-647页

作者： Ya-Peng Cui Shun-Jiang Ni Shi-Fei Shen Institute of Public Safety Research Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Department of Engineering Physics Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science Beijing 100084China

Individuals’ preventive measures,as an effective way to suppress epidemic transmission and to protect themselves from infection,have attracted much academic concern,especially during the COVID-19 *** this paper,a reinforcement learning-based model is proposed to explore individuals’ effective preventive measures against *** extensive simulations,we find that the cost of preventive measures influences the epidemic transmission process *** infection scale increases as the cost of preventive measures grows,which means that the government needs to provide preventive measures with low cost to suppress the epidemic *** addition,the effective preventive measures vary from individual to individual according to the social *** who contact with others frequently in daily life are highly recommended to take strict preventive measures to protect themselves from infection,while those who have little social contacts do not need to take any measures considering the inevitable *** research contributes to exploring the effective measures for individuals,which can provide the government and individuals useful suggestions in response to epidemics.

关键词： epidemic simulation complex networks reinforcement learning preventive measures

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A multi-scale agent-based model of infectious disease transmission to assess the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions:The COVID-19 case

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2021年第4期2卷 199-207页

作者： Luyao Kou Xinzhi Wang Yang Li Xiaojing Guo Hui Zhang Institute of Public Safety Research Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084PR China School of Computer Engineering and Science Shanghai UniversityShanghai 200444PR China

Mathematical and computational models are useful tools for virtual policy experiments on infectious disease *** models fail to provide flexible and rapid simulation of various epidemic scenarios for policy *** paper establishes a multi-scale agent-based model to investigate the infectious disease propagation between cities and within a city using the knowledge from person-to-person *** the model,the contact and infection of individuals at the micro scale where an agent represents a person provide insights for the interactions of agents at the meso scale where an agent refers to hundreds of *** cities with frequent population movements in China are taken as an example and actual data on traffic patterns and demographic parameters are *** scenarios for dynamic propagation of infectious disease with no external measures are compared versus the scenarios with vaccination and non-pharmaceutical *** model predicts that the peak of infections will decline by 67.37%with 80%vaccination rate,compared to a drop of 89.56%when isolation and quarantine measures are also in *** results highlight the importance of controlling the source of infection by isolation and quarantine throughout the *** also study the effect when cities implement inconsis-tent public health interventions,which is common in practical *** on our results,the model can be applied to COVID-19 and other infectious diseases according to the various needs of government agencies.

关键词： Public health Transmission risk Agent-based model epidemic simulation Policy assessment

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