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A review of China's energy consumption structure and outlook based on a long-range energy alternatives modeling tool

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Petroleum Science 2017年第1期14卷 214-227页

作者： Kang-Yin Dong Ren-Jin Sun Hui Li Hong-Dian Jiang School of Business Administration China University of Petroleum-Beijing Department of Agricultural Food and Resource EconomicsRutgers State University of New Jersey energy Systems Research Center University of Texas at Arlington

China＇s energy consumption experienced rapid growth over the past three decades, raising great concerns for the future adjustment of China＇s energy consumption structure. This paper first presents the historical evidence on China＇s energy consumption by the fuel types and sectors. Then, by establishing a bottom-up accounting framework and using long-range energy alternatives plan- ning energy modeling tool, the future of China＇s energy consumption structure under three scenarios is forecast. According to the estimates, China＇s total energy con- sumption will increase from 3014 million tonnes oil equivalent （Mtoe） in 2015 to 4470 Mtoe in 2040 under the current policies scenario, 4040 Mtoe in 2040 under the moderate policies scenario and 3320 Mtoe in 2040 under the strong policies scenario, respectively, lower than those of the IEA＇s estimations. In addition, the clean fuels （gas, nuclear and renewables） could be an effective alternative to the conventional fossil fuels （coal and oil） and offer much more potential. Furthermore, the industry sector has much strong reduction potentials than the other sectors. Finally, this paper suggests that the Chinese government should incorporate consideration of adjustment of the energy consumption structure into existing energy policies and measures in the future.

关键词： energy consumption structure China-LEAPmodel Scenario analysis Clean fuels Industrial sector

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Optimization of energy consumption structure based on carbon emission reduction target:A case study in Shandong Province,China

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2022年第2期20卷 125-135页

作者： Jixiang Liu Haichao Ma Qingsong Wang Shu Tian Yue Xu Yujie Zhang Xueliang Yuan Qiao Ma Yuan Xu Shuo Yang National Engineering Laboratory for Reducing Emissions from Coal Combustion Engineering Research Center of Environmental Thermal Technology of Ministry of EducationShandong Key Laboratory of Energy Carbon Reduction and Resource UtilizationResearch Center for Sustainable DevelopmentSchool of Energy and Power EngineeringShandong UniversityJinanShandong250061China

It is urgent to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to actively deal with global *** paper investigates Shandong Province,a typical province of energy consumption,as the research object,aiming to optimize total energy consumption and consumption structure in the future planning *** paper constructs a methodological system to optimize energy consumption structure in Shandong Province,using a scenario combination of system dynamics(SD)prediction and analysis based on the coupling of key scenario elements affecting different energy consumption from different *** equation modeling and SD sensitivity analysis indicate an overlap between key factors restricting energy *** the key scenario factors can better reflect the internal mechanism of energy consumption *** on this,21 scenarios based on different combinations of the key elements are *** SD prediction and analysis,the most suitable scenario mode for optimizing energy consumption structure in Shandong Province is *** paper provides a suitable development range for the average gross domestic product growth rate,the proportion of secondary industry,energy consumption intensity of secondary industry,and the urbanization rate for Shandong *** paper can provide a reference for similar research and the government in formulating the optimization scheme of energy consumption structure.

关键词： energy consumption structure System dynamics Structural equation Scenario combination analysis Carbon emissions Optimization Research

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Path selection and mechanism innovation of improving railway energy efficiency–from foreign experience and Chinese practice

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Railway Sciences 2022年第2期1卷 324-344页

作者： Xinjun Zhou Railway Science and Technology Research and Development Center China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation LimitedBeijingChina

Purpose–Under the dual pressure of resources and environment,many countries have focused on the role of railways in promoting low-carbon development of integrated transportation and of even the whole *** paper aims to provide a comprehensive study on methods to improve railway energy efficiency in other national railways and achievements made by China’s railways in the past practice,and then to propose ways in which in the future China’s railways could rationally select the path of improving energy efficiency regarding the needs of the nation’s ever-shifting development and carry out the re-engineering for mechanism innovation in energy conservation and emission reduction ***/methodology/approach–This paper first studies other national railways that have tried to promote the improvement of railway energy efficiency by the ways of technology,management and structural reconstruction to reduce energy consumption and carbon *** them,the effect of structural energy conservation and emission reduction has become more *** has become the main energy conservation and emission reduction measure adopted by foreign railway *** practice of energy conservation and emission reduction of railways in various countries has tended to shift from a technical level to a structural ***–Key aspects in improving energy efficiency include re-optimization of energy structure,reinnovation of energy-saving technologies and optimization of transportation *** selection includes continuing to promote electrified railway construction,increasing the use of new and renewable energy sources,and promoting the reform of railway transportation ***/value–This paper provides further challenges and research directions in the proposed area and has referential value for the methodologies,approaches for practice in a Chinese *** achieve the expected goals,relevant supporting policies and measures need to be for

关键词： China’s railways energy efficiency energy consumption structure Transport organization optimization Electrification New energy Renewable energy

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Research on energy consumption of Traditional Natural Villages in Transition: A Case Study in Zhejiang Province

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energy and Power Engineering 2016年第1期8卷 34-50页

作者： Meiyan Wang Shenglan Huang Xinxin Lin Didit Novianto Liyang Fan Weijun Gao Zu Wang Environmental Engineering University of Kitakyushu Kitakyushu Japan School of Landscape and Architecture Zhejiang A&F University Lin’an China Nikken Sekkei Research Institute Osaka Japan School of Architecture & Civil Engineering Zhejing University Hangzhou China

Traditional agriculture is in the direction of increasing integration of the primary industry, secondary industry, and tertiary industry in Zhejiang province. A survey was undertaken on energy consumption of traditional natural villages by taking Anji Ligeng village for an example. This paper firstly studied rural buildings, rural family structure, occupants’ activity and the usage of household appliances in the form of a questionnaire. Then, the household energy resource structure and energy consumption structure were analyzed and compared with other surveys. The results show that, the electric energy consumption was 6 kWh/(m2•a), which was far less than urban residential household. In rural household energy resource structure, the proportion of non-commercial energy resource was higher than commercial energy resource. Firewood accounted for 83%, electricity for 12%, LPG for 3% and solar energy for 2%. In building energy consumption structure, cooking and hot water took up 33%, appliances 31%, lighting 20%, heating 12%, cooling 4%. In all influential factors, frequently used area, number of air conditioner per household and building function were obviously correlated with energy consumption;income, building shape factor and window to wall area ratio had no correlation with energy consumption in the low energy consumption area.

关键词： Natural Village Rural Building energy Resource energy consumption structure Influential Factor

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Analysis on Carbon Emissions from energy consumption in Agriculture and Reduction Measures in Guangdong Province

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2011年第7期2卷 66-69,73页

作者： XIE Shu-juan1,2,3 1.Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510640,China 2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China 3.Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences,Guangzhou 510610,China

[Objective] The aim was to study CO2 emissions from energy consumption in agricultural production in Guangdong Province and put forward feasible reduction measures.[Method] Based on the data from China energy Statistical Yearbook and Guangdong Statistical Yearbook,CO2 emissions from agricultural energy use in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2009 was estimated by using the formula of carbon emissions recommended by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),and corresponding reduction measures were put forward.[Result] With the rapid increase of agricultural output and energy consumption,CO2 emissions from energy consumption in agricultural production in Guangdong Province showed increasing trend from 2000 to 2009,that is to say,increasing from 423.63×104 t C million tons in 2000 to 605.99×104 t C in 2009,with annual growth rate of 4.1%.Meanwhile,carbon emissions intensity during energy consumption in agriculture went down in recent ten years,in other words,decreasing from 0.424 t C/×104 yuan in 2000 to 0.301 t C/×104 yuan in 2009,and its annual decreasing rate was 3.7%.The variation of CO2 emissions from energy consumption in agriculture mainly resulted from the increase of agricultural output,improvement of energy utilization efficiency,high carbonization in agricultural energy consumption structure and so ***,in order to reduce CO2 emissions from energy consumption in agriculture,it is necessary to vigorously develop rural renewable energy,develop and popularize advanced technology for energy utilization,advance the energy conservation of agricultural machines,establish and improve the macroeconomic control mechanism for carbon emissions from the energy consumption in agricultural production in the further.[Conclusion] The study could provide references for the establishment of policy about reducing carbon emissions from agricultural energy consumption in Guangdong Province.

关键词： energy consumption in agriculture energy consumption structure CO2 emissions Carbon emissions intensity China

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基于路径分析法的能源结构影响因素效应分析与政策优化

国民经济管理

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国民经济管理 2017年第12期 11-17页

作者：张倩倩李百吉

本文基于55个国家的110个样本数据，采用路径分析方法，运用Amos Graphics软件对能源供给结构、能源消费结构各影响因素的直接影响效应、间接影响效应以及因果关系作用机理进行了研究。研究表明：能源供给结构、碳排放约束、城镇化水平... 详细信息

本文基于55个国家的110个样本数据，采用路径分析方法，运用Amos Graphics软件对能源供给结构、能源消费结构各影响因素的直接影响效应、间接影响效应以及因果关系作用机理进行了研究。研究表明：能源供给结构、碳排放约束、城镇化水平、资源条件、经济水平、科技水平依次对能源消费结构产生由大到小的总影响；能源消费结构、碳排放约束、资源条件、城镇化水平、经济水平、科技水平依次对能源供给结构产生由大到小的总影响。根据研究结论，从加快推进能源供给侧结构性改革、通过外部能源供给优化国内能源供给结构、从需求侧倒逼能源结构调整以及提高能源科技水平和利用效率四个方面提出了优化建议。

关键词：能源消费结构能源供给结构路径分析法直接效应间接效应 energy consumption structure energy supply structure path analysis method direct effect indirect effect

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能源效率对产业结构及能源消费结构演变的响应

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地理 2012年第1期

作者：王强郑颖伍世代李婷婷

伴随人类社会经济发展、人口规模增加、城市化和工业化进程加快，由能源消费迅速增长导致的碳循环非对称性加剧与全球气候变化已成为当前世界各界共同关注的焦点。如何提高能源效率是积极响应节能减排措施、实现社会可持续发展的有效途... 详细信息

伴随人类社会经济发展、人口规模增加、城市化和工业化进程加快，由能源消费迅速增长导致的碳循环非对称性加剧与全球气候变化已成为当前世界各界共同关注的焦点。如何提高能源效率是积极响应节能减排措施、实现社会可持续发展的有效途径。通过分析中国与5个发达国家能源效率、产业结构、能源消费结构演变特征，建立向量自回归（VAR）模型、脉冲函数（IRF）和方差分解函数（VD）来揭示中国能源效率对产业结构、能源消费结构演变的响应机理。结果显示近40年来，中国第三产业较第二产业发展对能源效率提高具有更大推动作用，虽第二产业发展与能源效率提高也成正向弱相关，但根据发达国家发展经验，中国第二产业发展对能源效率提高的抑制效应尚未显现，经济发展仍需粗放、耗能工业拉动，另外，中国能源消费过度集中于煤炭能源的结构特征对能源效率的提高具有抑制效应，未来中国能源效率对产业结构、能源消费结构演变的响应具体表现在：①相较发达国家，中国产业结构调整对能源效率在短期内具有抑制效应，直至中期，能源效率受产业结构调整冲击才呈现持续加大的趋势；②由于中国“以煤为主”的能源消费结构特征长期存在，其结构调整效应较发达国家滞后显现，发达国家能源消费结构演进的效应也表明短期内能源消费结构调整对能源效率的提高效果不显著；③中国产业结构演变对能源效率变动影响程度大于能源消费结构演变影响程度，产业结构调整与升级是影响中国能源效率提高、节能减排政策实施的关键环节。

关键词：能源效率产业结构能源消费结构响应机理中国 energy efficiency industrial structure energy consumption structure response mechanism

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