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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1996年第4期9卷 142-146,148-150+152-页

作者：张少泉任振启张连城张建军邹立晔

A brief account of the development of the research on mining earthquakes and the general situation of the Mentougou Coal Mine medium scale experiment field for earthquake prediction and the project of monitor and prediction is given. The differences of waveforms between mining earthquakes and natural earthquakes is discussed. The magnitude frequency distribution of the 79 000 mining earthquakes of over M L1.0 from 1984 to 1995 is summarized . Finally, taking PH and PV, the principal compressive stress components of the focal mechanism of the mining earthquakes, as the criteria, analyses the stress background of the 12 large mining earthquakes.

关键词： mining earthquakes mining seismology earthquake prediction Mentougou Coal Mine medium scale experiment field for earthquake prediction.

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of M_S=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 2003年第2期16卷 219-225页

作者：刘蒲雄郑大林车时潘怀文刘桂萍杨立明 CenterforAnalysisandprediction ChinaSeismologicalBureau ChinaSeismologicalBureau LanzhouInstituteofSeismology ChinaSeismologicalBureau

A great earthquake of MS=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is lo-cated at 36.2N and 90.9E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of MS=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of MS=8.1 involves in the lar-ger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and fore-casting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.

关键词： seismicity earthquake prediction great Kunlun Pass earthquake of MS=8.1

A Retrospective Analysis about the Italy Emilia M6.0 earthquake prediction

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Open Journal of earthquake Research 2021年第2期10卷 68-74页

作者： Guangmeng Guo Remote Sensing Center Nanyang Normal University Nanyang China

Cloud anomaly is a new kind of earthquake precursor that is still in the great controversy. Here we report an example of earthquake prediction based on cloud satellite anomaly. According to the cloud anomaly that appeared over eastern Italy on 21-23 April 2012, we made a prediction to Italy National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) that there will be a M5.5 - M6.0 earthquake in Italy in 30 days. Finally, the M6.0 quake occurred in northern Italy on 20 May 2012 and this verified our prediction. In this paper we extend the cloud image data from 2010 to 2013 and found 23 cloud anomalies totally, among them only the duration of the cloud on April 21-23 2012 exceed the 2 times, even 3 times of standard deviation threshold and it can be considered as a significant anomaly. Our analysis shows that the quake’s date and magnitude can be estimated accurately with the formula, and the epicenter can be estimated with the temperature anomaly method with 100 - 200 km error. This paper shows a promising method in earthquake prediction, of course it is only one example, and it still needs more examples to verify this method.

关键词： earthquake prediction Italy Cloud Anomaly

Effective Feature Selection for Short-term earthquake prediction Using NeuroFuzzy Classifier

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Effective Feature Selection for Short-term Earthquake Predic...

A review of seismo-electromagnetic research in China

2010 Second IITA International Conference on Geoscience and Remote Sensing (IITA-GRS 2010)

作者： Leila Dehbozorgi Fardad Farokhi Scientific Association of Electrical and Electronic Engineering Islamic Azad University Centran Tehrasn Branch Assistant Professor Electrical Engineering Department Electrical Engineering Islamic Azad UniversityCentral Tehran Branch

earthquakes is a serious sudden life threatening disaster for all kind of livings. Loss of life,property and depression are some common results of earthquakes for humankinds. The most important matter in this field is to predict earthquake time and strength. This study investigates an application of Neuro-Fuzzy classifier for short-term earthquake prediction using saved seismogram data. This method is able to predict earthquakes five minute before,with an acceptable accuracy （82.8571%）. The features were obtained from statistical and entropy parameters,Discrete Wavelet Transform （DWT）,Fast Fourier Transform （FFT）,Chaotic Features （Maximum Lyapunov Exponent）,estimated power spectral density （PSD）,and the classifier used this extracted features to indicate whether the earthquake were takes place in the next following five minutes or not. Finally,after training of Neuro-Fuzzy classifier effective features were selected with UTA [1] algorithm.

关键词： earthquake prediction Short-term prediction Neuro-Fuzzy Classifier Discrete Wavelet Transform （DWT） Feature Selection Maximum Lyapunov Exponent

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第7期65卷 1229-1246页

作者： Guoze ZHAO Xuemin ZHANG Juntao CAI Yan ZHAN Qinzhong MA Ji TANG Xuebin DU Bing HAN Lifeng WANG Xiaobin CHEN Qibin XIAO Xiangyu SUN Zeyi DONG Jijun WANG Jihong ZHANG Ye FAN Tao YE State Key Laboratory of earthquake Dynamics Institute of GeologyChina Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100029China Institute of earthquake Forecasting China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100036China National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China Shanghai earthquake Agency Shanghai 200062China China earthquake Administration Lanzhou Institute of earthquake Lanzhou 730000China Shandong earthquake Agency Jinan 250014China China earthquake Network Center Beijing 100045China

The seismo-electromagnetic(EM)method is an important geophysical method that plays a major role in the observation of seismic anomalies related to earthquake precursors.It is the most promising method for a breakthrough in short-term earthquake prediction.The digital transformation and network upgrading implemented in the“Ninth five-year plan”and“Tenth five-year plan”have optimized the original observation system,improved the quality of observed data,enriched the seismicelectromagnetic information,and enhanced the analysis capability and timeliness of seismic-electromagnetic anomalies.These improvements are of major importance for the research on seismo-electromagnetics as well as for the development of new technologies.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,China has launched a satellite named CSES that was designed for the generation and study of seismo-electromagnetic data and built a high-power transmitting source and a new CSELF observation network that is used specifically for earthquake monitoring.This platform has promoted the full-time three-dimensional EM monitoring and the identification of earthquake anomalies.Based on the study of anomalies related to earthquake precursors,the physical and numerical simulations,and the study on generation mechanism of anomalies in China,we summarize the characteristics of earthquake EM anomalies and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different EM observation methods.Finally,considering the related questions of the seismo-electromagnetic prediction and implementing the recent developments both in China and abroad,we review the current status of seismo-electromagnetic research and propose strategies for future research.

关键词： Seismo-electromagnetism Seismic anomaly Electromagnetic observation Experiment and simulation earthquake prediction Prospect

A review of tidal triggering of global earthquakes

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Geodesy and Geodynamics 2023年第1期14卷 35-42页

作者： Ruyu Yan Xiaodong Chen Heping Sun Jianqiao Xu Jiangcun Zhou State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth's Dynamics Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and TechnologyChinese Academy of SciencesWuhan 430077China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

earthquake prediction remains a challenging and difficult task for scientists all over the world.The tidal triggering of earthquakes is being proven by an increasing number of investigations,most of which have shown that earthquakes are positively correlated with tides,and thus,tides provide a potential tool for earthquake prediction,especially for imminent earthquakes.In this study,publications concerning the tidal triggering of earthquakes were compiled and analyzed with regard to global earthquakes,which were classified into three main types:tectonic,volcanic,and slow earthquakes.The results reveal a high correlation between tectonic earthquakes and tides(mainly for semidiurnal and diurnal tides;14-day tides) before and after the occurrence of significant earthquakes.For volcanic earthquakes,observations of volcanoes on the seafloor and land indicate that volcanic earthquakes in near-shore volcanic areas and mid-ocean ridges have a strong correlation with tidal forces,mostly those with semidiurnal and diurnal periods.For slow earthquakes,the periodicity of the tremor duration is highly correlated with semidiurnal and diurnal tides.In conclusion,the tidal triggering of these three types of earthquakes makes a positive contribution to earthquake preparation and understanding the triggering mechanism,and thus,the prediction of these types of earthquakes should be investigated.However,there are still several inadequacies on this topic that need to be resolved to gain a definitiveanswer regarding the tidal triggering of all earthquakes.The main inadequacies are discussed in this paper from our point of view.

关键词： Tidal triggering Tectonic earthquakes Volcanic earthquakes Slow earthquakes earthquake prediction

Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第2期65卷 257-268页

作者： Weilai PEI Shiyong ZHOU Jiancang ZHUANG Ziyao XIONG Jian PIAO School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Research Organization of Information and SystemsTokyo 1908562Japan

earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.

关键词： Statistical seismology earthquake prediction Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Stress release model Epidemic type aftershock sequence model

prediction of earthquake in Yunnan Region Based on the AHC over Sampling

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Prediction of Earthquake in Yunnan Region Based on the AHC o...

A discussion on the application of b-value to the prediction of seismic tendency

2010 Chinese Control and Decision Conference

作者： Kai Tan,Xiushan Cai College of Mathematics,Physics and Information Engineering,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua,321004,China

The data of earthquake of magnitude 3.5 or greater that happened during the 1970 and 2008 in Yunnan region (22 degrees and 28 degrees north,98 degrees and 104 degrees east) were compiled and analyzed in this paper.After calculating the seismicity indicators and constructing the initial data set,AHC over sampling method was used on the imbalanced data.Then small earthquakes and large ones during the 1999 and 2008 were predicted and verified with the support vector machines(SVM) which contains different error cost.The result performs well,and it provides a new way for the earthquake prediction.

关键词： earthquake prediction Biased support vector machines Over sampling Seismicity indicators

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 2001年第5期14卷 585-588页

作者： WU Zhong-liang Institute of Geophysics China Seismological Bureau Beijing China

In the estimation of seismic tendency, using Gutenberg-Richter's b-value and using Hurst exponent are two commonly used methods. Based on the fractal geometry of earthquake time series, we point out that these two methods correlate to each other. In the perspective of fractional Brownian motion (FBM), an earthquake sequence with b>3/4 and that with b less than or equal 3/4 have different dynamic properties.

关键词： b -value Hurst exponent earthquake prediction earthquake sequence P315.75

Study on the physical meaning of seismic inhomogeneous degree by rock fracture experiments

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 2005年第6期18卷 732-740页

作者：李志雄马胜利李圣强李闽峰路鹏陈华静王松吴婷 Institute of earthquake Science China Earthquake Administration Beijing 100036 China State Key Laboratory of earthquake Dynamics Institute of Geology China Earthquake Administration Beijing 100029 China College of Disaster Prevention Techniques Yanjiao 065201 China China Seismic Network Center Beijing 100036 China

It is observed that the parameter of seismic inhomogeneous degree (GL value) calculated from the earthquake catalog shows obvious abnormal changes prior to strong earthquakes, indicating the state change of local seismic activity. This paper focuses on the mechanism for the abnormal changes of the GL values based on the sequences of acoustic emission for three types of rock samples containing macro-asperity fracture; compressional en-echelon fracture and model-III shear fracture. The results show that for the three types of rock samples, there are continuous abnormal changes of GL value (>1) just before the non-elastic deformation occurs or during the process of nucleation prior to the instability. Based on the experimental results, it seems that the process of creep sliding and resistance-uniformization along fault zone is the possible mechanism for the abnormal changes of GL value before rock fractures.

关键词： seismic inhomogeneous degree rock fracture experiment acoustic emission non-elastic change earthquake prediction