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Correlation analysis between the occurrence of epidemic in ancient China and solar activity

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第1期66卷 161-168页

作者： Si CHEN Yong WEI Xin’an YUE Kaihua XU Mingkun LI Wei LIN Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Beijing Institute of Genomics Chinese Academy of Sciencesand China National Center for BioinformationBeijing 100101China Center for Excellence in Animal Evolution and Genetics Chinese Academy of SciencesKunming 650223China

As the globe has witnessed the pandemic,epidemic diseases exert a strong impact on human beings and *** the Sun is the primary energy source of the Earth,some scientific pioneers attempted to search for the discernible relation between solar activity and the incidence of *** this study,the periodic changes and trends of ancient Chinese epidemic data were analyzed in comparison with those of sunspot numbers,a solar activity *** results show that the epidemic and solar activity changes are in good agreement to a certain extent,especially during the Gleissberg and the de Vries *** wavelet coherence shows that the frequency of the epidemic data and sunspot numbers are highly *** addition,results from the ensemble empirical mode decomposition illustrate consistent variations in low-frequency *** study has important implications for further understanding of the potential impact of solar activity on Earth’s biosphere,the underlying mechanism of which needs further exploration.

关键词： epidemic Ancient China Solar activity Spectrum analysis

STAGED PROGRESSION MODEL FOR epidemic SPREAD ON HOMOGENEOUS AND HETEROGENEOUS NETWORKS

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2011年第4期24卷 619-630页

作者： Haifeng ZHANG Michael SMALL Xinchu FU School of Mathematical Sciences Anhui University Hefei 230039 China. Department of Electronic and Information Engineering Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hung HornKowloon Hong Kong China. Department of Mathematics Shanghai University Shanghai 200444 China.

In this paper, epidemic spread with the staged progression model on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks is studied. First, the epidemic threshold of the simple staged progression model is given. Then the staged progression model with birth and death is also considered. The case where infectivity is a nonlinear function of the nodes＇ degree is discussed, too. Finally, the analytical results are verified by numerical simulations.

关键词： Complex network epidemic heterogenous homogeneous the staged progression model.

Periodic Solution and Ergodic Stationary Distribution of Stochastic SIRI epidemic Systems with Nonlinear Perturbations

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2019年第4期32卷 1104-1124页

作者： ZHANG Weiwei MENG Xinzhu DONG Yulin College of Electrical Engineering and Automation Shandong University of Science and TechnologyQingdao 266590China College of Mathematics and Systems Science Shandong University of Science and TechnologyQingdao 266590China State Key Laboratory of Mining Disaster Prevention and Control Co-founded by Shandong Province and the Ministry of Science and Technology Shandong University of Science and TechnologyQingdao 266590China

This paper formulates two stochastic nonautonomous SIRI epidemic systems with nonlinear *** main aim of this study is to investigate stochastic dynamics of the two SIRI epidemic systems and obtain their *** the nonautonomous stochastic SIRI epidemic system with white noise,the authors provide analytic results regarding the stochastic boundedness,stochastic permanence and persistence in ***,the authors prove that the system has at least one nontrivial positive T-periodic solution by using Lyapunov function and Hasminskii’s *** the system with Markov conversion,the authors establish sufficient conditions for positive recurrence and existence of ergodic stationary *** addition,sufficient conditions for the extinction of disease are ***,numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate the main results.

关键词： Extinction and stochastic permanence Markov chain periodic solution stationary distribution and ergodicity stochastic SIRI epidemic model

Zero-Hopf bifurcation for an infection-age structured epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate

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Science China Mathematics 2017年第8期60卷 1371-1398页

作者： LIU ZhiHua YUAN Rong School of Mathematical Sciences Beijing Normal University

An infection-age structured epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate is *** formulate the model as an abstract non-densely defined Cauchy problem and derive the condition which guarantees the existence and uniqueness for positive age-dependent equilibrium of the *** analyzing the associated characteristic transcendental equation and applying the normal form theory presented recently for non-densely defined semilinear equations,we show that the SIR(susceptible-infected-recovered)epidemic model undergoes Zero-Hopf bifurcation at the positive equilibrium which is the main result of this paper.

关键词： infection-age structured epidemic non-densely defined stability normal form zero-Hopf bifurcation

Effects of Variant Rates and Noise on epidemic Spreading

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Chinese Physics Letters 2011年第5期28卷 282-284页

作者： LI Wei GAO Zong-Mao GU Jiao Complexity Science Center and Institute of Particle Physics Huazhong Normal UniversityWuhan 430079 Max-Planck-Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences

We introduce variant rates,for both infection and recovery and noise into the susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)modelfor epidemic *** changing rates are taken mainly due to the changing profiles of an epidemic during its ***,the noise parameter which is taken from a given distribution,*** can describe the fluctuations of the infection and recovery *** numerical simulations show that the SIR model with variant rates and noise and can improve the fitting with real SARS data in the near-stationary stage.

关键词： evolution infection epidemic

Reduced clinical severity during 2022 Shanghai Spring epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 omicron BA.2 variant infection——an integrated account of virus pathogenicity and vaccination effectiveness

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National Science Review 2024年第4期11卷 24-27页

作者： Xingyue Wu Yao Chen Kangli Cao Yao Shen Xueling Wu Yilin Yang Zhongshu Kuang Qingrun Li Zhenzhen Lu Yichen Jia Mian Shao Guorong Gu Xiangwei Wang Ye Yao Ying Wang Shaodie Chen Zhigao Yu Wei Wei Longfei Ding Lulu Lan Tianwen Gu Xiangyu Long Jian Sun Lingyu Xing Jiayuan Shen Yi Han Yue Luo Sucheng Mu Mengna Lin Xiaoyan Zhang Rong Zeng Jianqing Xu Guoping Zhao Lihong Huang Zhenju Song Department of Emergency Medicine Clinical Center for Bio-Therapy Department of Biostatistics and Department of UrologyShanghai Key Laboratory of Lung Inflammation and Injury Zhongshan Hospital Fudan University Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Shanghai Pudong Hospital Fudan University Department of Pulmonology Renji Hospital Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine Key Laboratory of Systems Biology Center for Excellence in Molecular Cell Science Shanghai Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center Fudan University Department of Biostatistics School of Public Health Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education and Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity School of Public Health Fudan University Shanghai Institute of Immunology Department of Immunology and Microbiology Shanghai Institute of Virology Key Laboratory of Cell Differentiation and Apoptosis of Chinese Ministry of EducationSchool of Medicine Shanghai Jiao Tong University State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering Fudan Microbiome CenterSchool of Life Sciences Fudan University Bio-Med Big Data Center Shanghai Institute of Nutrition and Health Chinese Academy of Sciences

The emergence of SARS-Co V-2 variant of concern omicron BA.2 led to high infection incidence rates as well as reduced severity of COVID-19 during the Shanghai Spring epidemic of 2022 [1]. We assessed the role of viral pathogenicity and the effectiveness of inactivated vaccines in a retrospective observational study including 10 258 confirmed COVID-19cases identified between April and June of 2022, from four COVID-19 designated hospitals located in two areas of Shanghai, namely the West Bund and the East Bund, where the populations’ demographic characteristics varied significantly (Table S1, Fig. S1).

关键词： sars-cov-2 effectiveness epidemic shanghai integrated spring clinical variant virus account

Cholera:an overview with reference to the Yemen epidemic

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Frontiers of Medicine 2019年第2期13卷 213-228页

作者： Ali A.Rabaan Molecular Diagnostic Laboratory Johns Hopkins Aramco HealthcareDhahran 31311Saudi Arabia

Cholera is a secretory diarrhoeal disease caused by infection with Vibrio cholerae, primarily the V. cholerae O1 El Tor biotype. There are approximately 2.9 million cases in 69 endemic countries annually, resulting in 95 000 deaths. Cholera is associated with poor infrastructure and lack of access to sanitation and clean drinking water. The current cholera epidemic in Yemen, linked to spread of V. cholerae O1 (Ogawa serotype), is associated with the ongoing war. This has devastated infrastructure and health services. The World Health Organization had estimated that 172 286 suspected cases arose between 27th April and 19th June 2017, including 1170 deaths. While there are three oral cholera vaccines prequalified by the World Health Organization, there are issues surrounding vaccination campaigns in conflict situations, exacerbated by external factors such as a global vaccine shortage. Major movements of people complicates surveillance and administration of double doses of vaccines. Cholera therapy mainly depends on rehydration, with use of antibiotics in more severe infections. Concerns have arisen about the rise of antibiotic resistance in cholera, due to mobile genetic elements. In this review, we give an overview of cholera epidemiology, virulence, antibiotic resistance, therapy and vaccines, in the light of the ongoing epidemic in Yemen.

关键词： cholera epidemic multi-drug resistant catechin luteolin ToxT CTXФ

epidemic status of Angiostrongylus cantonensis in Hainan island,China

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2011年第4期4卷 275-277页

作者： Ximin Hu Jianwei Du Chongjin Tong Shanqing Wang Jian Liu Yuchun Li Changhua He Hainan Provincial Center for Diseases Control and Prevention 570203Haikou HainanPeople's Republic of China

Objective:To understand the current epidemiological status of Angiostrongylus cantonensis in Hainan island and provide the scientific evidences for prevention and control of the ***:The investigation on nature infection condition of intermediate hosts and final hosts of Angiostrongylus cantonensis were carried out in five counties,Hainan Province, and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA) was employed to detect antibodies of Angiostrongylus cantonensis in human ***:A total of 1 612 molluscs were examined, 21.3%of which harbored L3 of Angiostrongylus *** them,the infection rates of Pomacea canaliculata,Achatina fulica,Cepaea and Phlegm bilineatus were 12.3696(64/518), 22.66%(121/534),20.93%(9/43),and 28.24%(146/517),*** the 118 rats trapped,13 Rattus norvegicus were found to be infected with Angiostrongylus cantonensis.A total of 459 serum samples were collected and tested.92 serum samples were Angiostrongylus cantonensis ***:The survey revealed a wide distribution of Angiostrongylus cantonensis in Hainan *** canaUculata and Achatina fulica are main intermediate hosts of Angiostrongylus *** novegicus is a nature definitive host,indicating that a considerable number of people are at risk of *** education,rigorous food inspection and surveillance are all needed to prevent angiostrongyliasis outbreaks in future.

关键词： Angiostrongylus cantonensis epidemic focus Survey

Large and moderate deviation principles for susceptible-infected-removed epidemic in a random environment

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Frontiers of Mathematics in China 2021年第4期16卷 1117-1161页

作者： Xiaofeng XUE Yumeng SHEN School of Science Beijing Jiaotong UniversityBeijing 100044China

We are concerned with SIR epidemics in a random environment on complete graphs,where edges are assigned with i.i.d,*** main results give large and moderate deviation principles of sample paths of this *** results generalize large and moderate deviation principles of the classic SIR models given by *** and ***-Kepgnou[***.,2017,54:905-920]and ***[Stochastic ***.,2019,140:49-80].

关键词： large deviation moderate deviation susceptible-infected-removed(SIR) epidemic random environment