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demographic Dilemma

China Report ASEAN 2023年第2期8卷 58-61页

作者： Chen Ke 不详

China needs a proactive response to negative population growth The year 2022 will most likely be remembered as a turning point in any future discussion on China’s demographics.That year,the world’s most populous country entered an“era of negative population growth.”Its natural population growth rate slid to 0.6 per thousand from 2021’s 0.34 per thousand,the nation’s overall population declined by 850,000 people year-on-year,and new births fell below 10 million for the first time since 1950,data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

关键词： demographic remember likely

Phenomenological Models of the Global demographic Dynamics and Their Usage for Forecasting in 21^st Century

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Applied Mathematics 2022年第7期13卷 612-649页

作者： Askar Akaev Prigogine Institute of Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems Moscow State University Moscow Russia

A great discovery made by H. von Foerster, P. M. Mora and L. W. Amiot was published in a 1960 issue of “Science”. The authors showed that existing data for calculating the Earth’s population in the new era (from 1 to 1958) could be described with incredibly high proximity by a hyperbolic function with the point of singularity on 13 November 2026. Thus, empirical regularity of the rise of the human population was established, which was marked by explosive demographic growth in the 20th century when during only one century it almost quadrupled: from 1.656 billion in 1900 to 6.144 billion in 2000. Nowadays, the world population has already overcome 7.8 billion people. Immediately after 1960, an active search for phenomenological models began to explain the mechanism of the hyperbolic population growth and the following demographic transition designed to stabilize its population. A significant role in explaining the mechanism of the hyperbolic growth of the world population was played by S. Kuznets (1960) and E. Boserup (1965), who found out that the rates of technological progress historically increased in proportion to the Earth’s population. It meant that the growth of the population led to raising the level of life-supporting technologies, and the latter in its turn enlarged the carrying capacity of the Earth, making it possible for the world population to expand. Proceeding from the information imperative, we have developed the model of the demographic dynamics for the 21st century for the first time. The model shows that with the development and spread of Intelligent Machines (IM), the number of the world population reaching a certain maximum will then irreversibly decline. Human depopulation will largely touch upon the most developed countries, where IM is used intensively nowadays. Until a certain moment in time, this depopulation in developed countries will be compensated by the explosive growth of the population in African countries located south of the Sahara. Calculations in our mode

关键词： Explosive Population Growth demographic Transition demographic Technological and Information Imperatives Phenomenological Models of The demographic Dynamics demographic Forecast in the Age of Intelligent Machines

Applicability of the second demographic transition in Asia

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China Population and Development Studies 2022年第3期6卷 223-227页

作者： Baochang Gu Center for Population and Development Policy Studies and Academy of Aging Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina

The special issue was initiated with the intention for a discussion of the possible applicability of the conceptual framework of Second demographic Transition(SDT)in Asian countries as a means to analyzing and predicting the population dynamics in the 21st century under the scenario of the fertility down below the replacement in Asia.

关键词： demographic fertility initiated

How Does Trade Openness Affect Regional demographic Transitions？ Evidence from China＇s Provincial Panel Data

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China & World Economy 2017年第3期25卷 112-130页

作者： Shujin Zhu Renyu Li Tenglong Zhong School of Economics and Trade Hunan University China. Lecturer School of Economics and Trade Hunan University China.

This paper investigates the effect of trade openness and other variables on thedemographic transition in China using the instrumental variables regression methodbased on provincial panel data for the period between 1981 and 2013. The resultsindicate that trade openness is one of the determinants of China＇s demographictransition and has two distinct effects：（i） an income effect that accelerated thedemographic transition by increasing per capita income; and （ii） a human capital effectthat suppressed the demographic transition by reducing human capital accumulation.The effects of trade on demographic transition vary across different regions. This studyidentifies the important determinants of demographic transition in China＇s regions, andhas rich policy implications for demographic transition and the upgrading of tradestructure.

关键词： demographic transition, human capital, per capita income, trade openness

Activities of Daily Living-Related Functional Impairment Among Population Aged 65 and Older—China,2011–2050

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China CDC weekly 2023年第27期5卷 593-598页

作者： Binbin Su Panliang Zhong Chen Chen Yu Wu Xiaoying Zheng School of Population Medicine and Public Health Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina Department of Population Health and Aging Science School of Population Medicine and Public HealthChinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina

Summary What is already known about this topic?The elevated prevalence of functional impairment among elderly individuals in China contributes to an increased burden of care.What is added by this report?This report presents a comprehensive evaluation of trends in functional impairment related to activities of daily living(ADL)among the elderly population in China.Furthermore,it offers insights for future projections of these trends in this demographic group.What are the implications for public health practice?Addressing the care needs and functional impairment issues among the aging population in China necessitates interdepartmental collaboration.

关键词： Population demographic elderly

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Population Close-Up

Beijing Review 2024年第19期67卷 2-2页

China's total population dropped for a second consecutive year in 2023,adding fuel to an ongoing demographic debate.In this context,it is important to take a closer look by observing shifting demographics across the c... 详细信息

关键词： demographic Population closer

Disease Burden:Progresses Made,Current State,Future Challenges,and Opportunities

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China CDC weekly 2022年第13期4卷 280-283页

作者： Haidong Wang Department of Health Metrics Sciences and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of WashingtonSeattleUnited States

demographic AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRANSITIONS AND CURRENT STATE OF DISEASE BURDEN IN CHINA Over the past three decades,the world has witnessed perhaps the most dramatic demographic and epidemiological transitions in China.During this period,the population of China has grown by a quarter of its size in 1990 to 1.41 billion in 2020(1).

关键词： demographic Challenges witnessed

Pre-existing frailty in the elderly and long-term mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention

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Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2023年第11期20卷 832-836页

作者： Muhammad Ali Tariq Zoha Khalid Minhail Khalid Malik Department of Medicine Dow University of Health SciencesKarachiPakistan

With global improvements in life expectancy,the proportion of the world’s population over 60 years of age has grown by 3%annually,and it is expected that by 2050,this population segment will nearly double.[1]This demographic transition carries profound impact on public health,with far-reaching economic implications for healthcare delivery,social and inhome care.[2]One of the most troublesome health manifestations of an ageing population is frailty,a multidimensional syndrome of accumulated ageand disease-related deficits that results in reduced resilience and increased vulnerability to stressors.

关键词： demographic annually population

Building a Chronic Diseases Prevention and Rehabilitation System Throughout the Life Span to Proactively Respond to the Challenges of Accelerated Population Aging

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China CDC weekly 2022年第39期4卷 863-865页

作者： Erdan Dong Xiaoying Zheng Department of Cardiology and Institute of Vascular Medicine Peking University Third HospitalBeijingChina Key Laboratory of Molecular Cardiovascular Science Ministry of EducationBeijingChina Research Center of Population Health and Social Development University of Health and Rehabilitation SciencesBeijingChina School of Population Medicine and Public Health Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina APEC Health Science Academy Peking UniversityBeijingChina

Population aging has emerged as one of the most pressing global demographic issues.Rapid population aging is being caused by a sharp drop in fertility rates over time,as well as a significant increase in life expectancy in the past decades.The World Health Organization(WHO)estimates that the proportion of those aged 60 years and older in the world’s population will almost double from approximately 12%in 2015 to 22%in 2050,with an absolute increase of 900 million to a total of 2 billion older adults(1).At the same time,the burden of global disease has changed greatly and the main diseases affecting human health have switched from acute and chronic infectious diseases to chronic non-communicable diseases(NCDs)(2).Such changing demographics and disease spectrum will profoundly affect all aspects of human society.

关键词： Population demographic fertility