How Does Trade Openness Affect Regional Demographic Transitions？ Evidence from China＇s Provincial Panel Data

作     者：Shujin Zhu Renyu Li Tenglong Zhong 

作者机构：School of Economics and Trade Hunan University China. Lecturer School of Economics and Trade Hunan University China. 

出 版 物：《China & World Economy》 (中国与世界经济（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2017年第25卷第3期

页      面：112-130页

核心收录：

学科分类：02[经济学] 

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars [13JJ1011] 

主　　题：demographic transition, human capital, per capita income, trade openness 

摘      要：This paper investigates the effect of trade openness and other variables on thedemographic transition in China using the instrumental variables regression methodbased on provincial panel data for the period between 1981 and 2013. The resultsindicate that trade openness is one of the determinants of China＇s demographictransition and has two distinct effects： （i） an income effect that accelerated thedemographic transition by increasing per capita income; and （ii） a human capital effectthat suppressed the demographic transition by reducing human capital *** effects of trade on demographic transition vary across different regions. This studyidentifies the important determinants of demographic transition in China＇s regions, andhas rich policy implications for demographic transition and the upgrading of tradestructure.