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Was There a Contagion during the Asian crises?

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Applied Mathematics 2013年第1期4卷 29-39页

作者： Hossein S. Kazemi Ayla Ogus Department of Economics Izmir University of Economics Izmir Turkey Department of Economics Stonehill College Easton USA

The contagion of financial crises surrounding the markets around the world has been in the forefront of academic and public discussions. In this paper, we attempt to study the “contagion effect” of the stock market crises around the world by studying the correlations of global stock returns and volatility. We analyze the daily returns of major stock indexes around the world to discover the timing and path of the transmission of shocks that manifest themselves in stock market returns. We construct VARs of major stock market index returns and volatilities. Our work differs from the literature in analyzing spillover effects between emerging markets and other major stock markets.

关键词： Financial crises Contagion Global Stock Returns and Volatility

Communicating in Product Harm crises: Do the Right Thing

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Journal of Food Science and Engineering 2019年第6期9卷 225-230页

作者： Paola Cane Mia Solution srl Torino 10122Italy

Food recalls can have very serious aftermath from many points of view: starting from the outbreak consequences on public health, on company’s reputation, sell-out, finance, up to putting at risk the survival of the firm itself. From a formal point of view, a product harm crisis presents similarities with other emergency situations: both of them consist in unpredictable events, often due to unknown or undervalued causes, which can significantly alter normal business and compromise the safety of the company, of its employees and customers. Given the potential damage resulting from a dangerous product crisis, it is surprising that in the food industry alongside mere procedures (often reducible to botched manuals compiled solely because their presence reassures auditors and authorities) there is still little attention to an approach based on a method. Formal corporate procedures (manuals and crisis management plans) are important, but can cause a false sense of security and preparedness, if executives do not possess an adequate crisis management culture, which depends, as well as on experience and training, also on the ability to assume the correct behavioral posture, and which involves psychological, organizational and communicational skills that can not be undervalued. The purpose of this article is to provide a practical approach based on the experience of crisis-management (applied in emergency situations by health professionals, armed forces and civil protection) useful to support food industry during a food recall, in order to avoid the most classic errors that can undermine speed of reaction, corrective measures effectiveness and leadership, in the most delicate moments for a company life. If it is true the way a firm manages the recall affects its impact, it is necessary to assess the fundamental factors to be observed at such times: timeliness, lucidity, responsibility, leadership.

关键词： Communication management crisis communication product harm crises recall.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Parents in the Vaso-Occlusive crises of the Sick Children in Brazzaville

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Open Journal of Pediatrics 2017年第3期7卷 205-213页

作者： A. R. Okoko M. T. Eouolo J. Kambourou E. Moyen G. Ekouya-Bowassa B. Diall A. Mbika-Cardorelle G. Moyen Department of Pediatrics Congo University Hospital Brazzaville Congo Department of Doctoral Studies Faculty of Health Sciences Marien Ngouabi University Brazzaville Congo

Objectives: to evaluate the parents’ knowledge of vaso-occlusive crises, to identify their attitudes and practices. Method: a retrospective, transversal, descriptive and analytical study carried out between January and June 2016 at the HUC of Brazzaville. The parents of sickle cell children aged 2 to 17 years, followed for at least one year, were interviewed. Results: a total of 319 parents were interviewed, including 221 women (69.3%) and 98 men (30.7%) with a mean age of 40.8 ± 9 years. They were unschooled 65 cases (20.4%), had primary education 41 cases (12.9%), secondary 149 cases (46.7%) and higher level 64 cases (20.1%). They had one child sickle cell 258 cases (80.9%). They knew sickle cell disease 283 cases (88.7%), its genetic transmission 249 cases (78.1%). The source of information was a health worker 211 cases (66.1%). They had a good knowledge of the vaso-occlusive crisis 101 cases (31.7%). In a vaso-occlusive crisis, they used a health facility 207 cases (64.8%), self-medicated 66 cases (20.7%). Their home practices were good 99 cases (31%), fairly good 135 cases (42.3%) and bad 85 cases (26.5%). Parents aged 25 to 34 (OR = 1.8 95% 1 - 3), secondary (OR = 1.7 95% 1 - 2.7) and with good practices (OR = 4.5 95% 2.7 - 7.5) are those who have a good knowledge of vaso-occlusive crises. Conclusion: The importance and severity of vaso-occlusive crises in the sickle-cell child’s life experience, the crucial role played by parents in their care requires that the information, education and communication of these children be strengthened To improve their quality of life.

关键词： Sickle-Cell Disease Vaso-Occlusive crises Children Knowledge Attitudes Practices Brazzaville

A Nonlinear Dynamic Model of the Financial crises Contagions

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Intelligent Information Management 2011年第1期3卷 17-21页

作者： Ke Chen Yirong Ying College of Management Shanghai University College of Finance and Economics Chongqing Jiaoting University

Employing the Differential Dynamics Method, a nonlinear dynamic model is set up to describe the international financial crises contagion within a short time between two countries. The two countries’ control force depending on the timely financial assistance, the positive attitude and actions to rescue other infected countries, and investor confidence aggregation, and the immunity ability of the infected country are considered as the major reasons to drive the nonlinear fluctuations of the stock return rates in both countries during the crisis. According to the Ordinary Differential Equations Qualitative Theory, we found that there are three cases of financial crises contagion within a brief time between two countries: weak contagion with instability but inhibition, contagion with limit and controllable oscillation, and strong contagion without control in a brief time.

关键词： Financial crises Contagion Stock Return Rate Nonlinear Dynamics Model Limit Cycle

The Organizer Dilemma: Outcomes from a Collaboration Exercise

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2019年第2期10卷 261-269页

作者： Jarle Lowe Sorensen Eric D.Carlstrom Glenn-Egil Torgersen Atle M.Christiansen Tae-Eun Kim Stig Wahlstrom Leif Inge Magnussen Department of Business History and Social SciencesSchoolof BusinessUniversity of South-Eastern NorwayCampusVestfold3199BorreNorway Institute of Health and Care Sciences University ofGothenburgSE-40530GoteborgSweden Department of Military Leadership and Management TheNorwegian Defence University CollegeN-0151OsloNorway Department of Maritime Operations Faculty of TechnologyNatural Sciences and Maritime SciencesUniversity ofSouth-Eastern NorwayCampus Vestfold3199BorreNorway Norwegian Coastal Administration N-6025 AlesundNorway

In crisis management, cross-sector collaboration exercises are perceived as improving preparedness and develop team-integration efforts. However, studies show that exercises may tend to produce results with limited learning and usefulness. The purpose of this nonexperimental, survey-based study was to measure the difference in perceived exercise effect between participants belonging to the exercise planning organizations and participants belonging to other participating groups. Surveys were distributed and collected from participants in a 2017 chemical oil-spill exercise set off the southern coast of Norway. The target population was operational staff,excluding exercise management and directing staff. The sample population consisted of operatives associated with the exercise organizer organization and others belonging to external public and nongovernmental emergency organizations. The data collection instrument was the 'Collaboration, Learning, and Utility Scale’’(CLU-scale). Findings indicated that the levels of CLU were higher among external participants than among those individuals who belong to the exercise planning organizations. This study recommends the development and adoption of a national maritime collaboration exercise framework. A practical implication is a recommendation to evaluate exercises to secure the outcome regarding collaboration skill using the same instrument.

关键词： Collaboration exercise Collaboration,Learning,and Utility Scale Crisis management Maritime emergencies and crises Norway

Measuring Social Solidarity During Crisis:The Role of Design Choices

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Journal of Social Computing 2022年第2期3卷 139-157页

作者： Steffen Eger Dan Liu Daniela Grunow the Center for Cognitive Interaction Technology(CITEC) Bielefeld UniversityBielefeld 33615Germany the Computer Science Department Technical University DarmstadtDarmstadt 64289Germany the Faculty of Social Sciences Goethe University FrankfurtFrankfurt 60629Germany

Building on our previous work,we assess how social solidarity towards migrants and refugees has changed before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic,by collecting and analyzing a large,novel,and longitudinal dataset of migration-related *** this end,we first annotate above 2000 tweets for(anti-)solidarity expressions towards immigrants,utilizing two annotation approaches(experts ***).On these annotations,we train a BERT model with multiple data augmentation strategies,which performs close to the human upper *** use this high-quality model to automatically label over 240000 tweets between September 2019 and June *** then assess the automatically labeled data for how statements related to migrant(anti-)solidarity developed over time,before and during the COVID-19 *** findings show that migrant solidarity became increasingly salient and contested during the early stages of the pandemic but declined in importance since late 2020,with tweet numbers falling slightly below pre-pandemic levels in summer *** the same period,the share of anti-solidarity tweets increased in a sub-sample of COVID-19-related *** findings highlight the importance of long-term observation,pre-and post-crisis comparison,and sampling in research interested in crisis related *** one of our main contributions,we outline potential pitfalls of an analysis of social solidarity trends:for example,the ratio of solidarity and anti-solidarity statements depends on the sampling design,i.e.,tweet language,Twitter-user accounts’national identification(country known or unknown)and selection of relevant *** our sample,the share of anti-solidarity tweets is higher in native(German)language tweets and among“anonymous”Twitter users writing in German compared to English-language tweets of users located in Germany.

关键词： social solidarity crises COVID-19 natural language processing

THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IS THE KEY TO VIGOROUSLY DEVELOP THE FORESTRY

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Journal of Northeast Forestry University 1991年第2期2卷 111-114页

作者： Jiang Minyuan Pan Haiying Northeast Forestry University 1. Northeast Forestry University China

The forestry is the main department of the national economy. During forty years development of the forestry , it has made a lot of contribution for the national economic construction and society development. However, paying more attention to the logging than to the silviculture for a long time lead that the felling amount has been more than the growth in volume of forest. And the forest resources have much decreased. The forestry is now faced to many difficulties. The forestry problems should be tackled by relying on the progress of science and technology. The achievements of science and technology should be first spread in forest zone. And the second task is that the step of the progress of science and technology in forestry enterprises should be quicken. In order to raise the economic benefits of forestry enterprises. The key problems of science and technology in forestry should be tackled by cooperation. Raising, the level of forestry science and technology and enlarging the international exchange are the other important aspect of vigorously developing the forestry.

关键词： Forestry crises Development Technology

An Agenda for Reforming Economic Theory

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Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities 2019年第2期14卷 149-167页

作者： Joseph E.Stiglitz Business School Graduate School of Arts and Sciences (Department of Economics) and School of International and Public AffairsColumbia UniversityNew YorkNY 10027USA The Roosevelt Institute

In this article, Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz argues that the standard macro-economic paradigm has failed not only to predict the crisis but also to provide insights into the design of a regulatory framework that would make a recurrence less likely. He points out that many of the underlying assumptions of the standard paradigm always seemed implausible and many of its predictions, such as those concerning the micro-economic behavior of the constituents (firms and households), are inconsistent with the empirical evidence. He then identifies a number of key modeling challenges, what he views as key ingredients that have to be incorporated in any model that is going to describe economic fluctuations or be the basis of a well-designed regulatory or monetary framework.

关键词： macro-economic models market failures financial crises systemic risk regulatory framework

An Econophysics Model of Financial Bubbles

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Natural Science 2015年第1期7卷 55-63页

作者： Bodo Herzog Department of Economics ESB Business School Reutlingen Germany

Usually financial crises go along with bubbles in asset prices, such as the housing bubble in the US in 2007. This paper attempts to build a mathematical model of financial bubbles from an econophysics, and thus a new perspective. I find that agents identify bubbles only with a time delay. Furthermore, I demonstrate that the detection of bubbles is different on either the individual or collective point of view. Second, I utilize the findings for a new definition of asset bubbles in finance. Finally, I extend the model to the study of asset price dynamics with news. In conclusion, the model provides unique insights into the properties and developments of financial bubbles.

关键词： Financial Bubbles Econophysics Wave Equation Financial crises