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Potential impacts of climate Change on dengue fever distribution using RCP scenarios in China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2019年第1期10卷 1-8页

作者： FAN Jing-Chun LIU Qi-Yong School of Public Health Gansu University of Chinese MedicineLanzhou730000China State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatinent of Infectious DiseasesNational Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(China CDC)Beijing102206China Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center School of Public HealthShandong UniversitJinan250012China

This study projected dengue distribution risk map using representative concentration pathways(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,RCP8.5)in China in 2020s,2030s,2050s and 2100s.Based on the biological characteristics of Aedes albopictus and the dengue epidemic process,dengue transmission biological model was developed to project the risk epidemic areas.Observational temperature data in 1981-2016 at 740 stations and grid data of 0.5°×0.5°(15°-55.5°N,70°-140.5E)under selected RCPs in 2020s,2030s,2050s and 2100s were used.Relative to 142 counties and 168 million people living in the projected high risk area of dengue in the climate condition of 1981-2016,dengue high risk areas in China would expand under same RCP scenarios in the 21st century with time past except RCP2.6 with a turning down point in 2050s.Especially under RCP8.5 which global mean temperature would increase by 4.9 C till 2100s,the high risk area and population for dengue transmission would expand additional 34 counties(20 million)in 2020s,114 counties(60 million)in 2030s,208 counties(160 million)in 2050 and 456 counties(490 million)in 2100s respectively than those of 1981-2016.For RCP8.5 in 2100s,the population and expanded high risk areas would increase 4.2-fold and 2.9-fold than the 1981-2016 mean.The newly added high risk areas should prepare for controlling and preventing dengue in different period according to projected dengue risk map.

关键词： Dengue fever Climate Change Aedes albopictus Representative concentration pathways(RCPs) Risk distribution

Integrated impacts of climate Change on glacier tourism

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2019年第2期10卷 71-79页

作者： WANG Shi-Jin ZHOU Lan-Yue State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100000 China

Glacier tourism is an important type of nature-based tourism with great global potential. However, glacial landscapes and environments are seriously affected by global warming. This study used a scoping review method to explore integrated impacts of climate Change on glaciers from the academic literature. All reviewed literature included a wide range of both research and non-research-based data or information. All literature was reviewed by summarizing findings of relevant research. It showed that climate warming has led to rapid melting and retreat of glacier landscapes, which has resulted in a huge impact on economic and social systems. The findings indicated that some glacial landscapes are declining in aesthetics or attractiveness while some landscapes face the prospect of sustained decline or even disappearance. This not only affects glacial cultural appreciation or mountain residents' beliefs, but increases the difficulty in entering and experiencing glaciers. Some points of tourism even face the risk of glacial disaster. Rapid glacial retreat or even disappearance will bring a loss of tourism revenues. At present, it is urgent to anticipate and adapt to these integrated impacts. In short, this study provides a general review of the impacts of climate Change on glacial tourism and also some references for the adaptation of future glacial tourism to climate Change.

关键词： Climate Change Glacier tourism Integrated impacts

Enhancing coastal areas governance for sustainable tourism in the context of urbanization and climate Change in eastern Thailand

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2019年第1期10卷 47-58页

作者： Vilas NITIVATTANANON Sirinapha SRINONIL Department of Development and Sustainabiliry School of EnvironmentResources and DevelopmentAsian Institute of TechnologyPathum Thani12120Thailand

Coastal areas in the eastern sub-region of Thailand,a popular destination in Southeast Asia,are facing rapid tourism-related urbanization and associated consequences of environment and climate Change(CC).Thus,this study aims to analyze the relationships between tourism,coastal areas,the environment,and CC in the context of tourism urbanization;and recommend strategies for enhancing the governance of coastal areas.Three popular destinations were selected as study areas,Koh Chang,Koh Mak,and Pattaya.Group discussions,questionnaire surveys,in-terviews,and observation were used for primary data collection together with secondary data.The results show that the development of these destinations has been incompatible with the coastal environment and CC patterns.Rapid urbanization from tourism development is the main driver of environmental Changes and makes the areas vulnerable to CC-related risks.While water scarcity and pollution are found the most critical environmental issues of the destinations,coastal areas are negatively affected in terms of increased air and water pollution and resource degradation.They have also been exposed to different CC-related problems while the risks of accumulative impacts of both environment and CC have not been adequately recognized or addressed.Although some measures have provided synergies of improved environment and increased climate resilience,possible conflicts and gaps were also found.Public infrastructure integration and optimization to enhance coastal areas'environment and climate resilience are suggested.

关键词： Climate Change Coastal urbanization Environment Governance Infrastructure and services Sustainable tourism

Relationship between sea surface salinity and ocean circulation and climate Change

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第5期62卷 771-782页

作者： Yan DU Yuhong ZHANG Jiancheng SHI State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth Chinese Academy of Sciences

Based on Argo sea surface salinity(SSS) and the related precipitation(P), evaporation(E), and sea surface height data sets, the climatological annual mean and low-frequency variability in SSS in the global ocean and their relationship with ocean circulation and climate Change were analyzed. Meanwhile, together with previous studies, a brief retrospect and prospect of seawater salinity were given in this work. Freshwater flux(E-P) dominated the mean pattern of SSS, while the dynamics of ocean circulation modulated the spatial structure and low-frequency variability in SSS in most regions. Under global warming, the trend in SSS indicated the intensification of the global hydrological cycle, and featured a decreasing trend at low and high latitudes and an increasing trend in subtropical regions. In the most recent two decades, global warming has slowed down, which is called the"global warming hiatus". The trend in SSS during this phase, which was different to that under global warming, mainly indicated the response of the ocean surface to the decadal and multi-decadal variability in the climate system, referring to the intensification of the Walker Circulation. The significant contrast of SSS trends between the western Pacific and the southeastern Indian Ocean suggested the importance of oceanic dynamics in the cross-basin interaction in recent decades. Ocean Rossby waves and the Indonesian Throughflow contributed to the freshening trend in SSS in the southeastern Indian Ocean, while the increasing trend in the southeastern Pacific and the decreasing trend in the northern Atlantic implied a long-term linear trend under global warming. In the future, higher resolution SSS data observed by satellites, together with Argo observations, will help to extend our knowledge on the dynamics of mesoscale eddies, regional oceanography, and climate Change.

关键词： Sea surface salinity Ocean circulation Climate Change Multi-scale interaction

Fabrication and characterization of novel meso-porous carbon/n-octadecane as form-stable phase Change materials for enhancement of phase-Change behavior

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Journal of Materials Science & Technology 2019年第5期35卷 939-945页

作者： Yurong Liu Yongpeng Xia Kang An Chaowei Huang Weiwei Cui Sheng Wei Rong Ji Fen Xu Huanzhi Zhang Lixian Sun School of Material Science & Engineering Guilin University of Electronic Technology Guilin 541004 China Guangxi Key Laboratory of Information Materials and Guangxi Collaborative Innovation Center of Structure and Property for New Energy and Materials Guilin University of Electronic Technology. Guilin 541004 China

In this study, series of novel composite phase Change materials(PCMs) were prepared through vacuum impregnation by using meso-porous carbon as a supporting matrix and n-octadcane as PCMs.The meso-porous carbon material was prepared through one-pot co-assembly method, using resorcinol and formaldehyde as carbon precursor, tetraethoxysilane as silica sources and triblock copolymer F127 as a template. And the phase behaviors of n-octadcane confined in the nano-porous structure of the meso-porous carbon were further investigated. Fourier transform-infrared spectroscopy spectra show that n-octadecane was effectively encapsulated in the porous structure of mesoporous carbon and the composite PCMs were successfully prepared. Differential scanning calorimetry results confirm that the composite PCMs possess a good phase Change behavior, fast thermal-response rate and excellent thermal cycling stability. In addition, the composite PCMs possess expected heat storage and heat release properties. All these results demonstrate that the composite PCMs possess good comprehensive property so that they can be used widely in energy storage systems.

关键词： Phase Change materials Meso-porous carbon Microstructure Thermal performance

Magnetic properties and magnetic entropy Change of perovskite manganites La_(0.9-x)Eu_xSr_(0.1)MnO_3(x=0.000,0.075) by experimental method and numerical fitting

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Journal of Rare Earths 2019年第6期37卷 622-627页

作者： Xiang Jin Jianjun Zhao Hongye Wu Bao Xu Yunbin Sun Xiaodong Sun Fengze Cao Kai Wang Wenxing Wang Yutong Zhang Yi Lu Key Laboratory of Magnetism and Magnetic Materials at Universities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Baotou Teachers College

Polycrystalline samples La_(0.9-x)EuxSr_(0.1)MnO_3(x = 0.000, 0.075) were prepared by the standard solid-state reaction method. The results show that the samples preform a characteristic of clusters spin-glass state at low temperature. The samples show a characteristic of ferromagnetism(FM) characteristic in the temperature range of 15-125 K and 15-150 K respectively; the samples show preformed clusters in the temperature range of 125-343 K and 150-325 K, respectively, the samples show paramagnetism(PM)characteristic above 343 and 325 K, respectively. The second-order transitions are found at 118 and 135 K for undoped and doped sample, respectively. When the applied magnetic field is 7 T, the maximum magnetic entropy Change |△S_M| value of the samples is near the Curie temperature(Tc), and the value of|△S_M| reaches 2.76 and 3.03 J/(K kg), respectively. In addition, the relative cooling power(RCP) is found to be 425.28 and 443.53 J/kg. The numerical fitting data fit well with experimental data. These results indicate that both the samples have the potential to realize magnetic refrigeration in the high temperature region(T > 77 K).

关键词： Perovskite Magnetic properties Magnetic entropy Change Preforming cluster phase Least square method Rare earths

Reflection and operationalization of the common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities principle in the transparency framework under the international climate Change regime

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2018年第4期9卷 253-263页

作者： WANG Tian GAO Xiang National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation Ministry of Ecology and Environment Beijing 100038 China Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission Beijing 100038 China

“Common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities”(CBDRRC) is the most significant guiding principle in the international climate Change regime, created by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and inherited by the Paris Agreement 24 years later. This paper examines the operationalization of the CBDRRC principle in one of the cornerstone rules of the regimedits transparency provisions, both in existing practice under the convention and possible evolvement in negotiations under the Paris Agreement, from the perspectives of both international rule-making and domestic implementation. The authors have found a continuous enhancement of the transparency framework since the 1990s, and gradual consolidation of a bifurcated system between developed and developing countries into a common one. The authors argue that the transparency framework, as part of the procedural rules, should be designed to facilitate transparent information sharing in accordance with substantive commitments under international climate Change laws. Thus, it indirectly reflects historical responsibilities for climate Change, while the framework should also be designed as feasible and reflective of the respective capabilities of nations. Finally, the evolution of the transparency framework will aim to enact common and enhanced provisions while differentiating between developed and developing countries in the near term, and greater transparency-related capacity-building for developing countries.

关键词： International climate Change law UNFCCC Paris agreement Transparency Common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities principle

Review of Chinese atmospheric science research over the past 70 years: Climate and climate Change

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第10期62卷 1514-1550页

作者： Jianping HUANG Wen CHEN Zhiping WEN Guangjun ZHANG Zhaoxin LI Zhiyan ZUO Qingyun ZHAO College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou730000China Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100190China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai200438China Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of CaliforniaSan Diego92093USA Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéParis75005France Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing100081China

Climate and climate Change have always been a research focus of atmospheric sciences. This paper summaries research efforts, achievements and international contributions of the Chinese scientific community on climate and climate Change over the past 70 years. The review is based on papers published officially in national or international scientific journals,and is organized to cover six aspects:(1) general climate studies;(2) impact of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau;(3) impact of the East Asian monsoon;(4) influences of teleconnection oscillation and westerlies;(5) climate dynamics and development of climate models;and(6) climate Change. It is, however, to be noted that the present review can not be considered as an exhaustive one, since there is a huge body of literature in the field.

关键词： Climate of China Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau East Asian Monsoon Climate Change

Impact of climate Change on hydropower generation in Rio Jubones Basin, Ecuador

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Water Science and Engineering 2018年第2期11卷 157-166页

作者： Mohammad Mehedi Hasan Guido Wyseure Hydraulic Research Directorate River Research Institute Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences KU Leuven

This study attempted to use the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT), integrated with geographic information systems(GIS), for assessment of climate Change impacts on hydropower generation. This methodology of climate Change impact modeling was developed and demonstrated through application to a hydropower plant in the Rio Jubones Basin in Ecuador. ArcSWAT 2012 was used to develop a model for simulating the river flow. The model parameters were calibrated and validated on a monthly scale with respect to the hydro-meteorological inputs observed from 1985 to 1991 and from 1992 to 1998, respectively. Statistical analyses produced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies(NSEs) of 0.66 and 0.61 for model calibration and validation, respectively, which were considered acceptable. Numerical simulation with the model indicated that climate Change could alter the seasonal flow regime of the basin, and the hydropower potential could Change due to the changing climate in the future.Scenario analysis indicates that, though the hydropower generation will increase in the wet season, the plant will face a significant power shortage during the dry season, up to 13.14% from the reference scenario, as a consequence of a 17% reduction of streamflow under an assumption of a 2.9℃ increase in temperature and a 15% decrease in rainfall. Overall, this study showed that hydrological processes are realistically modeled with SWAT and the model can be a useful tool for predicting the impact of climate Change.

关键词： SWAT Hydropower generation Climate Change Sensitivity analysis Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)