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Modelling the probability of presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Iran until 2070

Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2023年第1期16卷 16-25页

作者： Mohammad Mehdi Sedaghat Faramarz Bozorg Omid Mohammad Karimi Sajjad Haghi Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd Department of Vector Biology&Control School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of GIS Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics EngineeringK.N.Toosi University of TechnologyTehranIran Zoonoses Research Center Tehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran

Objective:To determine the suitable ecological habitats of Aedes(Ae.)aegypti and *** in Iran due to climate change by the ***:All data relating to the spatial distribution of *** and *** worldwide,which indicated the geographical coordinates of the collection sites of these mosquitoes,were extracted from online scientific websites and entered into an Excel *** effect of climatic and environmental variables on these mosquitoes was evaluated using the MaxEnt model in the current and future climatic conditions in the 2030s,2050s,and ***:The most suitable areas for the establishment of *** are located in the southern and northern coastal areas of Iran,based on the model *** modelling result for suitable ecological niches of *** shows that in the current climatic conditions,the southern half of Iran from east to west,and parts of the northern coasts are prone to the presence of this *** the future,some regions,such as Gilan and Golestan provinces,will have more potential to exist/establish ***,according to the different climate change scenarios,suitable habitats for this species will gradually change to the northwest and west of the *** temperature of the wettest season of the year(Bio8)and average annual temperature(Bio1)were the most effective factors in predicting the model for *** and ***,***:It is required to focus on entomological studies using different collection methods in the vulnerable areas of *** future modelling results can also be used for long-term planning to prevent the entry and establishment of these invasive Aedes vectors in the country.

关键词： Aedes aegypti Aedes albopictus Dengue fever Chikungunya Ecological Niche Modeling Climate change

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