Modelling the probability of presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Iran until 2070
作者机构：Department of Vector Biology&ControlSchool of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of GISFaculty of Geodesy and Geomatics EngineeringK.N.Toosi University of TechnologyTehranIran Zoonoses Research CenterTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran
出 版 物：《Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine》 (亚太热带医药杂志（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2023年第16卷第1期
页 面：16-25页
核心收录：
学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学]
基 金：Research Deputy Tehran University of Medical Sciences grant No.46857
主 题：Aedes aegypti Aedes albopictus Dengue fever Chikungunya Ecological Niche Modeling Climate change
摘 要：Objective:To determine the suitable ecological habitats of Aedes(Ae.)aegypti and *** in Iran due to climate change by the ***:All data relating to the spatial distribution of *** and *** worldwide,which indicated the geographical coordinates of the collection sites of these mosquitoes,were extracted from online scientific websites and entered into an Excel *** effect of climatic and environmental variables on these mosquitoes was evaluated using the MaxEnt model in the current and future climatic conditions in the 2030s,2050s,and ***:The most suitable areas for the establishment of *** are located in the southern and northern coastal areas of Iran,based on the model *** modelling result for suitable ecological niches of *** shows that in the current climatic conditions,the southern half of Iran from east to west,and parts of the northern coasts are prone to the presence of this *** the future,some regions,such as Gilan and Golestan provinces,will have more potential to exist/establish ***,according to the different climate change scenarios,suitable habitats for this species will gradually change to the northwest and west of the *** temperature of the wettest season of the year(Bio8)and average annual temperature(Bio1)were the most effective factors in predicting the model for *** and ***,***:It is required to focus on entomological studies using different collection methods in the vulnerable areas of *** future modelling results can also be used for long-term planning to prevent the entry and establishment of these invasive Aedes vectors in the country.
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