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Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks of a New Coupled Model CAMS-CSM to Idealized CO_2 Forcing: A Comparison with CMIP5 Models

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第1期33卷 31-45页

作者： Xiaolong CHEN Zhun GUO tianjun zhou Jian LI Xinyao RONG Yufei XIN Haoming CHEN Jingzhi SU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological Administration

Climate sensitivity and feedbacks are basic and important metrics to a climate system. They determine how large surface air temperature will increase under CO_2 forcing ultimately, which is essential for carbon reduction policies to achieve a specific warming target. In this study, these metrics are analyzed in a climate system model newly developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM) and compared with multi-model results from the Coupled Model Comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5). Based on two idealized CO_2 forcing scenarios, i.e.,abruptly quadrupled CO_2 and CO_2 increasing 1% per year, the equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS) and transient climate response(TCR) in CAMS-CSM are estimated to be about 2.27 and 1.88 K, respectively. The ECS is near the lower bound of CMIP5 models whereas the TCR is closer to the multi-model ensemble mean(MME) of CMIP5 due to compensation of a relatively low ocean heat uptake(OHU) efficiency. The low ECS is caused by an unusually negative climate feedback in CAMS-CSM, which is attributed to cloud shortwave feedback(λSWCL) over the tropical Indo-Pacific *** CMIP5 ensemble shows that more negative λSWCL is related to larger increase in low-level(925–700 hPa)cloud over the tropical Indo-Pacific under warming, which can explain about 90% of λSWCL in CAMS-CSM. Static stability of planetary boundary layer in the pre-industrial simulation is a critical factor controlling the low-cloud response and λSWCL across the CMIP5 models and CAMS-CSM. Evidently, weak stability in CAMS-CSM favors lowcloud formation under warming due to increased low-level convergence and relative humidity, with the help of enhanced evaporation from the warming tropical Pacific. Consequently, cloud liquid water increases, amplifying cloud albedo, and eventually contributing to the unusually negative λSWCL and low ECS in CAMS-CSM. Moreover, the OHU may influence climate feedbacks and then the ECS by modulating regional sea surface temperature r

关键词： climate sensitivity climate feedback cloud shortwave feedback the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences climate system model(CAMS-CSM) Coupled Model Comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)

Holocene thermal maximum mode versus the continuous warming mode:Problems of data-model comparisons and future research prospects

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第8期66卷 1683-1701页

作者： Fahu CHEN Yanwu DUAN Shuo HAO Jie CHEN Xiaoping FENG Juzhi HOU Xianyong CAO Xu ZHANG tianjun zhou Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation(ALPHA) Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Resources and Environment(TPESRE)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The Holocene,the most recent interglacial,provides an important time window for evaluating current global warming and predicting future temperature *** the development of new temperature proxies and improvements in climate models,significant progress has been made in understanding Holocene temperature ***,a major debate persists about whether global temperatures during the Holocene followed a pattern of gradual warming from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum,which culminated in a temperature maximum in the early to middle Holocene,followed by gradual cooling in the late Holocene(the thermal maximum mode);or whether there was a continuous warming trend that continued to the present day(the continuous warming mode).Significant discrepancies exist between different proxy records as well as between proxy records and models,which have resulted in the “Holocene temperature conundrum” that has challenged paleoclimatologists for the past ***,we summarize the progress made to date in the study of Holocene temperature change via proxy reconstructions,climate model simulations,and paleoclimate data *** emphasize that the current research has limitations in terms of the multiplicity and seasonality of proxy records,the spatial heterogeneity of temperature records,and the incorporation of feedback processes(e.g.,vegetation,cloudradiation feedback) in climate *** limitations have hindered a comprehensive understanding of the processes and mechanisms of Holocene temperature *** solve the “Holocene temperature conundrum”,it is necessary to strengthen theoretical research on climate proxies from the perspective of the underlying processes and mechanisms,elucidate the seasonal response of various temperature proxies,emphasize regional differences in temperature changes,and expand quantitative temperature reconstructions to areas with limited ***,it is also necessary to improve the simulation performance of complex

关键词： Holocene temperature change Thermal maximum mode Continuous warming mode Seasonality of proxies Climate simulations

Volcanoes and Climate:Sizing up the Impact of the Recent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption from a Historical Perspective

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第12期39卷 1986-1993页

作者： Meng ZUO tianjun zhou Wenmin MAN Xiaolong CHEN Jian LIU Fei LIU Chaochao GAO State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment Ministry of EducationJiangsu Provincial State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment EvolutionSchool of Geography ScienceNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing 210023China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-Sen University Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Educationand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratoryZhuhai 519082China College of Environmental and Resource Science Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China

An undersea volcano at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai(HTHH)near the South Pacific island nation of Tonga,erupted violently on 15 January *** climate impact of the HTHH volcanic eruption is of great concern to the public;here,we intend to size up the impact of the HTHH eruption from a historical *** influence of historical volcanic eruptions on the global climate are firstly reviewed,which are thought to have contributed to decreased surface temperature,increased stratospheric temperature,suppressed global water cycle,weakened monsoon circulation and El Niño-like sea surface *** understanding of the impacts of past volcanic eruptions on global-scale climate provides potential implication to evaluate the impact of the HTHH *** on historical simulations,we estimate that the current HTHH eruption with an intensity of 0.4 Tg SO_(2)injection will decrease the global mean surface temperature by only 0.004℃in the first year after eruption,which is within the amplitude of internal variability at the interannual time scale and thus not strong enough to have significant impacts on the global climate.

关键词： Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption global climate surface temperature monsoon ENSO

Atmospheric oscillations over the last millennium

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第22期55卷 2469-2472页

作者： HUANG JianBin WANG ShaoWu GONG DaoYi zhou tianjun WEN XinYu ZHANG ZiYin ZHU JinHong Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology College of Resources Science and Technology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100871 China

The variations of global atmospheric oscillations over the last millennium, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) highly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), are studied and compared in this paper based on observations and reconstructed data. The cross correlation analysis of AAO, NAO and NPO shows that there is no significant relationship on interannual variation among them. However, the consistency on decadal variability is prominent. During A.D.1920–1940 and A.D.1980–2000, the positive (strong) phase was dominant and the negative (weak) one noticeable during A.D.1940–1980. In addition, the reconstructed atmospheric oscillations series demonstrate that the positive phase existed in the early of the last millennium for NAO and in the late of the last millennium for AAO, respectively; while it occurred in the mid-late of the last millennium for PDO and ENSO.

关键词：大气振荡太平洋年代际振荡北大西洋涛动北太平洋涛动交叉相关分析 AAO模板年代际变化原产地保护

The Asymmetric Effects of El Ni?o and La Ni?a on the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Their Simulation by CMIP5 Atmospheric Models

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第1期31卷 82-93页

作者： Zhun GUO tianjun zhou Bo WU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） events significantly affect the year-by-year variations of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）. However, the effect of La Nifia events on the EAWM is not a mirror image of that of E1 Nifio events. Although the EAWM becomes generally weaker during El Nifio events and stronger during La Nifia winters, the enhanced precipitation over the southeastern China and warmer surface air temperature along the East Asian coastline during E1 Nifio years are more significant. These asymmetric effects are caused by the asymmetric longitudinal positions of the western North Pacific （WNP） anticyclone during El Nifio events and the WNP cyclone during La Nifia events; specifically, the center of the WNP cyclone during La Nifia events is westward-shifted relat- ive to its El Nifio counterpart. This central-position shift results from the longitudinal shift of remote E1 Nifio and La Nifia anomalous heating, and asymmetry in the amplitude of local sea surface temperature anomalies over the WNP. However, such asymmetric effects of ENSO on the EAWM are barely reproduced by the atmospheric models of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5）, although the spatial patterns of anomalous circula- tions are reasonably reproduced. The major limitation of the CMIP5 models is an overestimation of the anomalous WNP anticyclone/cyclone, which leads to stronger EAWM rainfall responses. The overestimated latent heat flux an- omalies near the South China Sea and the northern WNP might be a key factor behind the overestimated anomalous circulations.

关键词： AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) East Asian winter monsoon ENSO asymmetriceffects cloud precipitation

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气候变化与碳中和

自然杂志 2024年第1期46卷 1-11页

作者：周天军陈晓龙张文霞张丽霞中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029

工业化以来化石燃料的广泛使用使大气中的二氧化碳浓度急剧升高,造成全球气候变暖、极端天气气候事件频发。为有效应对和减缓气候变化,国际社会通过《巴黎协定》设定了2℃和1.5℃温控目标,由此提出了碳中和的概念。文章介绍了全球变暖... 详细信息

工业化以来化石燃料的广泛使用使大气中的二氧化碳浓度急剧升高,造成全球气候变暖、极端天气气候事件频发。为有效应对和减缓气候变化,国际社会通过《巴黎协定》设定了2℃和1.5℃温控目标,由此提出了碳中和的概念。文章介绍了全球变暖的基本事实、人类碳排放对工业化以来全球变暖的作用,归纳了关于未来气候变化的主要结果,阐释了1.5/2℃温升阈值与碳中和的关系,概述了国际社会为有效应对全球变暖而在减少碳排放方面的努力。

关键词：气候变化碳中和极端气候事件气候模拟气候预估

Preface to Special Issue on CMIP6 Experiments: Model and Dataset Descriptions

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第10期37卷 1033-1033页

作者： tianjun zhou Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP)supports research in climate change and assessment,including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Assessment Report(AR),through providing enormous datasets mainly produced by Earth system models(ESMs)and climate system models(CSMs).The newest(sixth)phase of CMIP(CMIP6)has been launched,including the DECK(Diagnostic,Evaluation and Characterization of Klima)and 23 endorsed MIP experiments,to address new scientific questions in climate fields(Eyring et al.,2016).Now,the datasets simulated by the new versions of ESMs and CSMs have been/will be published on the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF).Hence,descriptions of the CMIP6 models,experiment designs and datasets are important for the community;evaluations and comparisons of the models with other CMIP models are useful to understand the progress and simulation biases of models.

关键词： Earth climate CMIP

Increasing impacts from extreme precipitation on population over China with global warming

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Science Bulletin 2020年第3期65卷 243-252页

作者： Wenxia Zhang tianjun zhou State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Precipitation-related extremes are among the most impact-relevant consequences of a warmer climate,particularly for China,a region vulnerable to global warming and with a large *** the impacts and risks induced by future extreme precipitation changes is critical for mitigation and adaptation ***,extreme precipitation changes under different levels of global warming and their associated impacts on populations in China are investigated using multimodel climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and population projections under Shared Socioeconomic *** precipitation would intensify with warming across China at a rate of 6.52%(5.22%-8.57%)per degree of global *** longest dry spell length would increase(decrease)south(north)of-34°*** low warming target of the Paris Agreement could substantially reduce the extreme precipitation related impacts compared to higher warming *** the area weighted average changes,the intensification in wet extremes could be reduced by 3.22%,9.42%and 16.70%over China,and the lengthening of dry spells could be reduced by 0.72%,4.75%and 5.31%in southeastern China,respectively,if global warming is limited to 1.5℃as compared to 2,3 and 4℃The Southeastern China is the hotspot of enhanced impacts due to the dense *** impacts on populations induced by extreme precipitation changes are dominated by climate change,while future population redistribution plays a minor role.

关键词： Global warming Extreme precipitation Impact Population Paris Agreement

2021:A Year of Unprecedented Climate Extremes in Eastern Asia,North America,and Europe

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1598-1607页

作者： tianjun zhou Wenxia ZHANG Lixia ZHANG Robin CLARK Cheng QIAN Qinghong ZHANG Hui QIU Jie JIANG Xing ZHANG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Met Office Hadley Centre ExeterEX13PBUK Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

The year 2021 was recorded as the 6th warmest since *** addition to large-scale warming,2021 will be remembered for its unprecedented climate ***,a review of selected high-impact climate extremes in 2021,with a focus on China,along with an extension to extreme events in North America and Europe is *** extreme events that occurred in 2021 in China are highlighted,including a rapid transition from cold to warm extremes and sandstorms in spring,consecutive drought in South China and severe thunderstorms in eastern China in the first half of the year,extremely heavy rainfall over Henan Province and Hubei Province during summer,as well as heatwaves,persistent heavy rainfall,and a cold surge during *** links of extremes in China to four global-scale climate extremes and the underlying physical mechanisms are discussed here,providing insights to understand climate extremes from a global *** serves as a reference for climate event attribution,process understanding,and high-resolution modeling of extreme events.

关键词： climate extremes detection and attribution climate change natural internal variability