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Modelling the preventive treatment under media impact on tuberculosis:A comparison in four regions of China

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第2期9卷 483-500页

作者： Jun Zhang Yasuhiro Takeuchi Yueping Dong zhihang peng School of Mathematics and Statistics and Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Analysis&Applications(Ministry of Education)Central China Normal UniversityWuhan430079China College of Science and Engineering Aoyama Gakuin UniversityKanagawa252-5258Japan National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing102206China

Preventive treatment for people with latent Tuberculosis infection(LTBI)has aroused our great *** this paper,we propose and analyze a novel mathematical model of TB considering preventive treatment with media *** basic reproduction number R_(0)is defined by the next generation matrix *** the case without media impact,we prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable(unstable)if R_(0)1).Furthermore,we obtain that a unique endemic equilibrium exists when R_(0)>1,which is globally asymptotically stable in the case of permanent immunity and no media *** fit the model to the newly reported TB cases data from 2009 to 2019 of four regions in China and estimate the *** we estimatedR_(0)=0.50131 in Henan,R_(0)=1.282>1 in Jiangxi andR_(0)=1.930>1 in Xinjiang imply that TB will continue to persist in these three regions without further prevention and control ***,sensitivity analysis is carried out to illustrate the role of model parameters for TB *** finding reveals that appropriately improving the rate of timely treatment for actively infected people and increasing the rate of individuals with LTBI seeking preventive treatment could achieve the goal of TB *** addition,another interesting finding shows that media impact can only reduce the number of active infections to a limited extent,but cannot change the prevalence of TB.

关键词： Latent tuberculosis infection Preventive treatment Media impact Mathematical model Tuberculosis elimination

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Impact of COVID-19 Interventions on Respiratory and Intestinal Infectious Disease Notifications-Jiangsu Province,China,2020–2023

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China CDC weekly 2024年第41期6卷 1059-1064,I0003页

作者： Ziying Chen Xin Liu Jinxing Guan Yingying Shi Wendong Liu zhihang peng Jianli Hu School of Public Health Nanjing Medical UniversityNanjing CityJiangsu ProvinceChina Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionNanjing CityJiangsu ProvinceChina National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina Jiangsu Province Engineering Research Center of Health Emergency Nanjing CityJiangsu ProvinceChina.

Introduction:Many measures implemented to control the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic have reshaped the epidemic patterns of other infectious *** study estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases and potential changes following ***:The optimal intervention and counterfactual models were selected from the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA),neural network autoregression(NNAR),and hybrid models based on the minimum mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)in the test *** relative change rate between the actual notification rate and that predicted by the optimal model was calculated for the entire COVID-19 epidemic prevention period and the“reopening”***:Compared with the predicted notification rate based on the counterfactual model,the total relative change rates for the 9 infectious diseases were−44.24%,respiratory infections(−55.41%),and intestinal infections(−26.59%)during 2020–*** with the predicted notification rate based on the intervention model,the total relative change rates were+247.98%,respiratory infections(+389.59%),and intestinal infections(+50.46%)in *** them,the relative increases in influenza(+499.98%)and hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)(+70.97%)were ***:Measures taken in Jiangsu Province in response to COVID-19 effectively constrained the spread of respiratory and intestinal infectious *** and HFMD rebounded significantly after the lifting of COVID-19 intervention restrictions.

关键词： Impact lifting prevention

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The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts:A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling

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Journal of Biomedical Research 2024年第2期38卷 175-188,I0016-I0018页

作者： Ziyu Zhao Yi Zhou Jinxing Guan Yan Yan Jing Zhao zhihang peng Feng Chen Yang Zhao Fang Shao Department of Biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjingJiangsu 211166China Nanjing Hanwei Public Health Research Institute Co. LtdNanjingJiangsu 210005China China International Cooperation Center for Environment and Human Health Center for Global HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjingJiangsu 211166China The Center of Biomedical Big Data and the Laboratory of Biomedical Big Data Nanjing Medical UniversityNanjingJiangsu 211166China Jiangsu Key Lab of Cancer Biomarkers Prevention and TreatmentCollaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Personalized MedicineNanjing Medical UniversityNanjingJiangsu 211166China

Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic ***,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well *** present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling *** demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and *** on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter *** advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of ***,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time ***,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of *** model offered a balance between computational efficiency and *** results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic ***,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both ***,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

关键词： compartment models agent-based models compartment-agent mixed models comparative study COVID-19

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Epidemic intelligence trinity:Detection,risk assessment,and early warning

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Chinese Medical Journal 2024年第11期137卷 1313-1315页

作者： Ting Zhang Luzhao Feng Shengjie Lai zhihang peng Yajia Lan Weizhong Yang Department of Infectious Diseases School of Population Medicine and Public HealthChinese Academy of Medical Science&Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100730China WorldPop School of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonSO171BJUK Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjingJiangsu 211166China Department of Occupational Health and Environmental Health West China School of Public HealthSichuan UniversityChengduSichuan 610041China

Emerging infectious diseases have been frequently *** occurrence of infectious diseases is highly uncertain because of the unpredictability of pathogen,the complexity of occurrence time and site,and the characteristics of *** detection and immediate implementation of effective interventions within a reasonable time are the keys to preventing pandemics.[1]However,due to the insufficiency of the traditional surveillance and early warning,which relied heavily on passive reporting by healthcare institutions,[2]the early warning time lags behind the risk factor identification,syndrome differentiation(pneumonia of unknown cause),and suspected case confirmation of the infectious disease at the gateway of clustered *** paper aimed to face the challenges mentioned above and propose a universal epidemic intelligence model to establish a novel infectious disease surveillance and early warning system based on the trinity of surveillance and detection,risk assessment,and early warning.

关键词： mentioned warning intelligence

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Dynamic evolution of an SVEIR model with variants and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19

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Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity 2024年第2期6卷 67-75页

作者： Ruiyang Zhou Shaojian Cai Guangmin Chen Senzhong Huang Zhen Jin zhihang peng Weichuan Lin Fengying Wei Kuicheng Zheng School of Mathematics and Statistics Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Fuzhou 350012FujianChina School of Statistics and Data Science ZhiYing Research Center for Health DataNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Complex Systems Research Center Shanxi UniversityTaiyuan 030006ShanxiChina Department of Biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166JiangsuChina School of Mathematics and Statistics Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007FujianChina Center for Applied Mathematics of Fujian Province Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research Fuzhou 350001FujianChina Teaching Base of the School of Public Health of Fujian Medical University Fuzhou 350001FujianChina

The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).All reported cases in the Putian epidemic(September 8–October 2,2021,Delta variant B.1.617.2)and Fuzhou epidemic(October 22–November 18,2022,Omicron variant BA.5.2)were classified by sex,age group,occupation,and location in this *** surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,we established a virus-oriented SVEIR(Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered)model to investigate the dynamic evolution features of these two variants and the effects of *** optimal simulations were carried out with variants and scenario *** scenario investigations showed that NPIs significantly reduced the transmission risk and infection scales of COVID-19,and that the Omicron variant was more infectious than the Delta ***,the dynamic investigations revealed the increasing tendencies from Delta to Omicron,such as the basic reproduction number,infection rate,percentage of high-risk cases,and the growth *** tendencies were also identified,such as the average recovery period,the awareness delay,and the percentage of symptomatic *** study highlighted that NPIs played critical roles in successfully containing the two *** interventions are strongly recommended to public health policymakers.

关键词： COVID-19 SVEIR model Transmission dynamics Non-pharmaceutical interventions Delta variant Omicron variant

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Al_(2)O_(3)f/Al_(2)O_(3)陶瓷基复合材料研究进展

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材料导报 2024年第18期38卷 1-9页

作者：莫琛向阳陈坤张稳彭志航文瑾曹建辉国防科技大学空天科学学院新型陶瓷纤维及其复合材料重点实验室长沙410073 湖南人文科技学院精细陶瓷与粉体材料湖南省重点实验室湖南娄底417000 湖南省新化县鑫星电子有限责任公司湖南娄底417000

目前,航空发动机等高温部件对热结构材料性能要求日渐严苛。Al_(2)O_(3)f/Al_(2)O_(3)陶瓷基复合材料(Al_(2)O_(3)f/Al_(2)O_(3)CMCs)因具有优异的力学性能和抗氧化性,成为了热结构材料体系的研究热点。本文综述了Al_(2)O_(3)f/Al_(2)O_... 详细信息

目前,航空发动机等高温部件对热结构材料性能要求日渐严苛。Al_(2)O_(3)f/Al_(2)O_(3)陶瓷基复合材料(Al_(2)O_(3)f/Al_(2)O_(3)CMCs)因具有优异的力学性能和抗氧化性,成为了热结构材料体系的研究热点。本文综述了Al_(2)O_(3)f/Al_(2)O_(3)CMCs的组成体系、主要性能和制备方法,并分析了该材料在相关领域的应用以及未来的发展趋势。

关键词： Al_(2)O_(3)f /Al_(2)O_(3) CMCs 组成体系抗氧化制备方法发展趋势

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冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病患者静态行为研究的范围综述

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护理与康复 2024年第4期23卷 79-84页

作者：周涛杨丽黎周琪邓顺凤彭志杭浙江大学医学院附属第四医院浙江义乌310030

目的对冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病患者静态行为影响因素、测评及干预进行范围综述,为今后冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病患者静态行为的管理提供借鉴。方法选用Arksey范围综述方法,检索PubMed、Embase、Cochrane Library、CINAHL、Web of Sc... 详细信息

目的对冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病患者静态行为影响因素、测评及干预进行范围综述,为今后冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病患者静态行为的管理提供借鉴。方法选用Arksey范围综述方法,检索PubMed、Embase、Cochrane Library、CINAHL、Web of Science核心数据集、维普资讯中文期刊服务平台、中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台,检索时限从建库至2023年8月,文献导入NoteExpress进行分析。结果纳入15篇文献,包含队列研究2篇、随机对照研究5篇、横断面研究6篇、纵向研究2篇,静态行为测量工具包括主观测量工具和客观测量工具,影响因素主要有体力活动、社会人口学因素、环境因素、生理因素及心理因素等,干预方法包含中断久坐提醒设备、短信提醒、制定静态行为干预方案、有氧锻炼及电子健康干预。结论冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病患者静态行为缺乏特异性评估工具,行为受多因素影响。我国护理学者需规范冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病患者静态行为测评方法,制定科学、合理的静态行为干预方案。

关键词：冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病静态行为范围综述

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中青年群体流感疫苗知信行水平及接种驱动因素调查

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中华疾病控制杂志 2024年第5期28卷 540-546页

作者：周思佳陈紫颖江欣刘文马宇航王凯胡建利彭志行南京医科大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系南京211166 南京医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学系南京211166 江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所南京210009 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室北京102206

目的了解中青年群体流感疫苗知信行水平、疫苗接种现状和接种意愿,并探究其影响因素,帮助推进疫苗接种工作。方法 2023年5―8月,采取多阶段分层抽样方法从南昌市、长沙市及昆明市常住居民中抽取4 895人进行问卷调查。采用多因素logisti... 详细信息

目的了解中青年群体流感疫苗知信行水平、疫苗接种现状和接种意愿,并探究其影响因素,帮助推进疫苗接种工作。方法 2023年5―8月,采取多阶段分层抽样方法从南昌市、长沙市及昆明市常住居民中抽取4 895人进行问卷调查。采用多因素logistic回归分析流感疫苗知信行水平的影响因素和驱动因素。结果中青年群体对于流感疫苗的认知和态度一般,接种水平较低。流感疫苗知信行水平在不同性别、受教育程度、职业、年收入、是否患基础疾病、吸烟和饮酒间的差异均具有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。多因素分析结果显示部分职业(均P<0.05)、患基础疾病(OR=1.309, 95%CI:1.073~1.597,P=0.008)、良好的认知(OR=1.574, 95%CI:1.322~1.874,P<0.001)和良好的态度(OR=2.379, 95%CI:1.616~3.502,P<0.001)是流感疫苗接种行为的促进因素。流感季情况严重、担心感染后影响家人和同事、疫苗免费/优惠和政府及卫生当局建议接种是导致中青年群体流感疫苗接种意愿改变的主要因素。结论中青年群体对于流感疫苗的知信行水平较低,应加强对流感疫苗相关知识的宣传科普工作。通过分层次、分阶段实施接种优惠政策,完善基层接种服务人员激励机制,鼓励临床医师开具疫苗处方等多项举措促进疫苗接种。

关键词：流感疫苗中青年知信行影响因素驱动因素

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Linking key intervention timings to rapid declining effective reproduction number to quantify lessons against COVID-19

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Frontiers of Medicine 2020年第5期14卷 623-629页

作者： zhihang peng Wenyu Song Zhongxing Ding Quanquan Guan Xu Yang Qiaoqiao Xu Xu Wang Yankai Xia Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166China Key Laboratory of Modern Toxicology of Ministry of Education School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166China

Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is currently under a global pandemic *** efficiency of containment measures and epidemic tendency of typical countries should be *** this study,the efficiency of prevention and control measures in China,Italy,Iran,South Korea,and Japan was assessed,and the COVID-19 epidemic tendency among these countries was *** showed that the effective reproduction number(Re)in Wuhan,China increased almost exponentially,reaching a maximum of 3.98 before a lockdown and rapidly decreased to below 1 due to containment and mitigation strategies of the Chinese *** Re in Italy declined at a slower pace than that in China after the implementation of prevention and control *** Re in Iran showed a certain decline after the establishment of a national epidemic control command,and an evident stationary phase occurred because the best window period for the prevention and control of the epidemic was *** epidemic in Japan and South Korea reoccurred several times with the Re fluctuating *** epidemic has hardly rebounded in China due to the implementation of prevention and control strategies and the effective enforcement of *** countries suffering from the epidemic could learn from the Chinese experience in containing COVID-19.

关键词： COVID-19 epidemic control comparison Chinese experience

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Prevalence and risk factors of HIV and syphilis,and knowledge and risk behaviors related to HIV/AIDS among men who have sex with men in Chongqing,China

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The Journal of Biomedical Research 2016年第2期30卷 101-111页

作者： Wenzhe Ma Guohui Wu Hui Zheng Wenjuan Zhang zhihang peng Rongbin Yu NingWang Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public Health Nanjing Medical University Nanjing Jiangsu 211166 China Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention Chongqing China National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing China

High HIV prevalence and incidence burdens have been reported in men who have sex with men（MSM）in Chongqing,*** aimed to estimate the prevalence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections（STIs）,to appraise the knowledge and risk behaviors related to HIV/AIDS among MSM,and to analyze the possible causes of deviation between behavior and knowledge to make better *** recruited 617 MSM from February to July in 2008 by using a respondent-driven sampling（RDS） method in Chongqing,*** the collection of questionnaire-based data and biological testing results from all objects,we launched a crosssectional ***/SE was used for data analysis by frequency,ANOVA,rank sum test and logistic regression *** with syphilis（OR=4.16,95%CI：2.35-7.33,P〈0.0001） were more likely to be HIV *** a company employee（OR=3.64,95%CI：1.22-10.08,P〈0.0001） and having bought male for sex（OR=3.52,95%CI：1.10-11.32,P〈0.034） were associated with a higher probability of *** with younger age,higher education and greater monthly income had a higher mean knowledge *** who had HIV testing had a higher mean knowledge score than those who never ***,venues for finding sex partners by Internet and homosexuals in MSM had a higher mean knowledge score compared to other occupations,venues for finding sex partners and sexual *** is an urgent need for delivery of barrier and biomedical interventions with coordinated behavioral and structural strategies to improve the effect of HIV interventions among MSM.

关键词： HIV/AIDS men who have sex with men Chongqing China

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