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Seasonal prediction of extreme high-temperature days over the Yangtze River basin

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2137-2147页

作者： Shifeng PAN zhicong yin Mingkeng DUAN Tingting HAN Yi FAN Yangyang HUANG Huijun WANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

Extreme high temperatures occur frequently over the densely populated Yangtze River basin(YRB)in China during summer,significantly impacting the local economic development and ecological ***,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days in this region remains a ***,the Climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)exhibits poor performance in this ***,based on the interannual increment approach,we develop a hybrid seasonal prediction model over the YRB(HM_(YRB))to improve the prediction of extreme high-temperature days in *** HM_(YRB)relies on the following four predictors:the observed preceding April-May snowmelt in north western Europe;the snow depth in March over the central Siberian Plateau;the CFSv2-forecasted concurrent summer sea surface temperatures around the Maritime Continent;and the 200-hPa geopotential height over the Tibetan *** HM_(YRB)indicates good capabilities in predicting the interannual variability and trend of extreme high-temperature days,with a markable correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a percentage of the same sign(PSS)of 76% during 1983-2015 in the one-year-out ***,the HM_(YRB) maintains high PSS skill(86%)and robustness in the independent prediction period(2016-2022).Furthermore,the HM_(YRB) shows a good performance for years with high occurrence of extreme high-temperature days,with a hit ratio of 40%.These predictors used in HM_(YRB)are beneficial in terms of the prediction skill for the average daily maximum temperature in summer over the YRB,albeit with biases existing in the *** study provides promising insights into the prediction of 2022-like hot extremes over the YRB in China.

关键词： Hot extremes Yangtze River basin CFSv2 Seasonal prediction One-year-out cross-validation

三大洋海温异常对2022年2月中国南方持续低温雨雪的影响

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大气科学 2024年第5期48卷 1837-1854页

作者：钱卓蕾马洁华尹志聪赵驰宇绍兴市气象台绍兴312000 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044 中国科学院大气物理研究所气候变化研究中心北京100029 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢—南森国际研究中心北京100029 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海) 珠海519000 绍兴市气象服务中心绍兴312000

2022年2月,中国南方出现持续低温雨雪天气:区域平均降水量126.6 mm,较多年(1981~2020年)平均偏多99.7%;日最低气温5.1℃,较多年平均偏低2.6℃。分析表明,该地区700 hPa到925 hPa异常强的经向风垂直切变是2月持续低温雨雪期间的关键环流... 详细信息

2022年2月,中国南方出现持续低温雨雪天气:区域平均降水量126.6 mm,较多年(1981~2020年)平均偏多99.7%;日最低气温5.1℃,较多年平均偏低2.6℃。分析表明,该地区700 hPa到925 hPa异常强的经向风垂直切变是2月持续低温雨雪期间的关键环流特征。经向风垂直切变与三大洋的海温异常均有联系:在赤道中东太平洋海温偏冷的背景下,热带西太平洋和北太平洋中部海温偏暖可导致东亚槽加深和对流层低层到近地面出现偏北风异常;北大西洋中部海温偏暖可通过西欧—东亚沿岸的北支Rossby波列加强乌拉尔山高压脊和东亚槽,使得西伯利亚高压和中国南方低层偏北风增强;东南印度洋海温偏暖有利于南支槽加深和西北太平洋异常反气旋加强,对流层中层偏南风加强。海温对环流的影响有明显的季内变化,北太平洋中部和北大西洋中部海温与西伯利亚高压仅在2月显著相关,有利于2月气温偏低;东南印度洋海温与1月和2月的南支槽显著相关,与2月西北太平洋异常反气旋显著相关,中国南方地区降水从1月中旬起增多可能与该海域海温持续偏暖有关。因此,上述三个海区的海温异常可能与2021/2022年冬季暖干到冷湿的季内转折以及2022年2月持续低温雨雪有关。

关键词：持续低温雨雪经向风垂直切变北太平洋中部海温北大西洋中部海温东南印度洋海温季内转折

Impacts of the SSTs over Equatorial Central–Eastern Pacific and Southeastern Indian Ocean on the Cold and Rainy/Snowy/Icy Weather in Southern China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第2期37卷 248-261页

作者： Zhuolei QIAN Jiehua MA zhicong yin Shaoxing Meteorological Office Shaoxing312000 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(KLME) Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044 Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029 Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029 Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519000

Low temperature together with snow/freezing rain is disastrous in winter over southern *** studies suggest that this is related to the sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,especially La Nina conditions,over the equatorial central–eastern Pacific Ocean(EP).In reality,however,La Nina episodes are not always accompanied by rainy/snowy/icy(CRSI)days in southern China,such as the case in winter 2020/*** there any other factor that works jointly with the EP SST to affect the winter CRSI weather in southern China?To address this question,CRSI days are defined and calculated based on station observation data,and the related SST anomalies and atmospheric circulations are examined based on the Hadley Centre SST data and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for winters of1978/1979–2017/*** results indicate that the CRSI weather with more CRSI days is featured with both decreased temperature and increased winter precipitation over southern *** SSTs over both the EP and the southeastern Indian Ocean(SIO)are closely related to the CRSI days in southern China with correlation coefficients of-0.29 and 0.39,significant at the 90%and 95%confidence levels,*** SST over EP affects significantly air temperature,as revealed by previous studies,with cooler EP closely related to the deepened East Asian trough,which benefits stronger East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM)and lower air temperature in southern ***,this paper discovers that the SST over SIO affects precipitation of southern China,with a correlation coefficient of 0.42,significant at the 99%confidence level,with warmer SIO correlated with deepened southern branch trough(SBT)and strengthened western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone(WNPAC),favoring more water vapor convergence and enhanced precipitation in southern *** presence of La Ni?a in both winters,compared to the winter of 2020/2021,the winter of 2021/2022 witnessed more CRSI days,perhaps due to the warmer SIO.

关键词： the cold and rainy/snowy/icy(CRSI)days sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies equatorial central–eastern Pacific Ocean(EP) southeastern Indian Ocean(SIO)

Meteorological influences on co-occurrence of O_(3) and PM_(2.5)pollution and implication for emission reductions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第6期66卷 1258-1267页

作者： Xiaoqing MA zhicong yin Bufan CAO Huijun WANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Co-occurrence of surface ozone(O_(3))and fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))pollution(CP)was frequently observed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH).More than 50%of CP days occurred during April-May in BTH,and the CP days reached up to 11 in two months of *** PM_(2.5)or O_(3) concentration associated with CP was lower than but close to that in O_(3) and PM_(2.5)pollution,indicating compound harms during CP days with double-high concentrations of PM_(2.5)and O_(3).CP days were significantly facilitated by joint effects of the Rossby wave train that consisted of two centers associated with the Scandinavia pattern and one center over North China as well as a hot,wet,and stagnant environmental condition in *** 2018,the number of CP days decreased sharply while the meteorological conditions did not change ***,changes in meteorological conditions did not really contribute to the decline of CP days in 2019 and *** implies that the reduction of PM_(2.5)emission has resulted in a reduction of CP days(about 11 days in 2019 and 2020).The differences in atmospheric conditions revealed here were helpful to forecast the types of air pollution on a daily to weekly time *** reduction in PM_(2.5)emission was the main driving factor behind the absence of CP days in 2020,but the control of surface O_(3) must be stricter and deeper.

关键词： Co-occurrence pollution Ozone PM_(2.5) Meteorology Emission reduction

Why super sandstorm 2021 in North China?

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National Science Review 2022年第3期9卷 119-127页

作者： zhicong yin Yu Wan Yijia Zhang Huijun Wang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationJoint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Severe sandstorms reoccurred in the spring of 2021 after an absence for more than 10 years in North *** dust source area,located in Mongolia,suffered destructive cooling and warming in early and late winter,which loosened the land.A lack of precipitation,excessive snow melt and strong evaporation resulted in dry soil and exiguous spring vegetation.A super-strong Mongolian cyclone developed on the bare and loose ground,and easily blew and transported large amounts of sand particles into North ***,top-ranking anomalies(sea ice shift in the Barents and Kara Sea,and sea surface temperatures in the east Pacific and northwest Atlantic) were found to induce the aforementioned tremendous climate anomalies in the dust source *** es,based on large-ensemble Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,yield results identical to the reanalysis ***,the climate variabilities at different latitudes and synoptic disturbances jointly facilitated the strongest spring sandstorm over the last decade.

关键词： sandstorm dust source Arctic sea ice La Niña cyclone

Monthly Variations of Atmospheric Circulations Associated with Haze Pollution in the Yangtze River Delta and North China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第4期38卷 569-580页

作者： Xinyu ZHANG zhicong yin Huijun WANG Mingkeng DUAN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were investigated and compared over the YRD and NC in each month. Results showed that the YRD(NC) is dominated by the so-called Scandinavia(East Atlantic/West Russia)pattern in December, and these circulations weaken in January. The East Asian December and January monsoons over the YRD and NC have negative correlations with the number of haze days. The local descending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over the YRD, while the local ascending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over NC in January, despite a weaker relationship in December. Additionally, the monthly variations of atmospheric circulations showed that adverse meteorological conditions restrict the vertical(horizontal) dispersion of haze pollution in December(January) over the YRD, while the associated local weather conditions are similar in these two months over NC.

关键词： monthly haze pollution atmospheric circulations Yangtze River Delta North China

Hybrid Seasonal Prediction of Meridional Temperature Gradient Associated with“Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia”

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第9期40卷 1649-1661页

作者： Tianbao XU zhicong yin Xiaoqing MA Yanyan HUANG Huijun WANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The meridional gradient of surface air temperature associated with“Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia”(GradTAE)is closely related to climate anomalies and weather extremes in the mid-low ***,the Climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)shows poor capability for GradTAE *** on the year-to-year increment approach,analysis using a hybrid seasonal prediction model for GradTAE in winter(HMAE)is conducted with observed September sea ice over the Barents–Kara Sea,October sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic,September soil moisture in southern North America,and CFSv2 forecasted winter sea ice over the Baffin Bay,Davis Strait,and Labrador *** demonstrates good capability for predicting GradTAE with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.84,and the percentage of the same sign is 88%in cross-validation during 1983−*** also maintains high accuracy and robustness during independent predictions of 2016−***,HMAE can predict the GradTAE in 2021 well as an experiment of routine ***,well-predicted GradTAE is useful in the prediction of the large-scale pattern of“Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia”and has potential to enhance the skill of surface air temperature occurrences in the east of China.

关键词： warm Arctic-cold Eurasia year-to-year increment climate prediction sea ice SST

5-HT_(2A)受体反向激动剂LPM6690061改善普拉克索致PD小鼠躁狂

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烟台大学学报（自然科学与工程版） 2024年第3期37卷 317-325页

作者：张红尹智聪郭春敏于昕烟台大学药学院分子药理和药物评价教育部重点实验室(烟台大学)新型制剂与生物技术药物研究山东省高校协同创新中心山东烟台264005

为探讨5-HT_(2A)受体反向激动剂LPM6690061对普拉克索引起的帕金森病(PD)躁狂小鼠的症状改善作用及作用机制,采用1-甲基-4-苯基-1,2,3,6,-四氢吡啶(MPTP)建立小鼠PD模型,同时腹腔注射PPX建立小鼠PD躁狂模型,后灌胃给予2.0,6.0,18.0 mg/k... 详细信息

为探讨5-HT_(2A)受体反向激动剂LPM6690061对普拉克索引起的帕金森病(PD)躁狂小鼠的症状改善作用及作用机制,采用1-甲基-4-苯基-1,2,3,6,-四氢吡啶(MPTP)建立小鼠PD模型,同时腹腔注射PPX建立小鼠PD躁狂模型,后灌胃给予2.0,6.0,18.0 mg/kg LPM6690061进行治疗。转棒、爬杆实验检测PD小鼠的运动障碍;悬尾、强迫游泳实验检测PD躁狂小鼠的情绪障碍;旷场实验检测PD躁狂小鼠的过度活动;Y迷宫实验检测PD躁狂小鼠的空间记忆;苏木精-伊红染色法检测海马体齿状回(DG)区细胞的损伤;蛋白免疫印迹法检测小鼠海马体糖原合酶激酶3β(GSK-3β)、磷酸化GSK-3β(P-GSK-3β)、丝氨酸/苏氨酸激酶(Akt)、磷酸化Akt(P-Akt)、细胞外调节蛋白激酶(Erk)、磷酸化Erk(P-Erk)、环磷腺苷效应元件结合蛋白(CREB)、磷酸化CREB(P-CREB)的表达。结果表明,5-HT_(2A)受体反向激动剂LPM6690061可改善普拉克索引起的PD小鼠的躁狂症状,抑制Akt/GSK-3β信号通路,降低海马体P-GSK-3β、P-Akt蛋白的表达;增强Erk/CREB通路,增加海马体P-Erk和P-CREB蛋白的表达,减少神经元凋亡,改善PD躁狂小鼠的空间记忆能力,减轻海马体DG区的颗粒细胞损伤。

关键词：帕金森病普拉克索躁狂 5-HT_(2A)受体反向激动剂

Remote impacts from the tropical Indian Ocean on haze pollution in January over the Yangtze River Delta

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第3期14卷 49-53页

作者： Shuwei Xia zhicong yin Huijun Wang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Haze events in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region have recently been occurring more frequently and with dramatic damages inflicted on human and ecosystem *** this study,observational analyses and numerical experiments are used to investigate the meteorological conditions associated with haze pollution,with the main emphasis on the impacts of the preceding sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO).The results show that the December SST in the TIO has a significant positive correlation with the number of haze days in January over the YRD,especially during 1999–*** December,the positive SST anomalies in the TIO heat the overlying air,and then in the following January provoke a Matsuno–Gill-like pattern and a series of Rossby wave–like trains in the upper troposphere,transmitting signals to the YRD and downstream through the Sea of Japan and Aleutian *** cyclonic anomalies in the YRD seem to significantly weaken the East Asian jet stream by means of anomalous easterlies,and subsequently affect the climate in the *** the surface,the increased surface air temperature and southerly winds,along with the decreased surface wind speed,accompanied by influences from upstream areas,are conducive to the occurrence of *** observational results were also reproduced well in CESM-LE simulations.

关键词： Sea surface temperature Tropical indian ocean Haze pollution CESM-LE