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葵花-8卫星AOD资料在CMA-MESO/CUACE CW 3DVar同化系统中的个例应用研究

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高原气象 2024年第5期43卷 1259-1270页

作者：田伟红庄照荣韩威沈学顺中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心北京100081 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081 中国气象局地球系统数值预报重点开放实验室北京100081

CMA-MESO/CUACE CW化学天气耦合模式是自主研发的大气化学耦合模式,目前CMA-MESO/CUACE CW3DVar同化系统实现了地面气溶胶观测可吸入颗粒物PM_(2.5)和PM10的同化,为增强耦合同化系统非常规观测的同化能力,文中在CMA-MESO大气化学天气耦... 详细信息

CMA-MESO/CUACE CW化学天气耦合模式是自主研发的大气化学耦合模式,目前CMA-MESO/CUACE CW3DVar同化系统实现了地面气溶胶观测可吸入颗粒物PM_(2.5)和PM10的同化,为增强耦合同化系统非常规观测的同化能力,文中在CMA-MESO大气化学天气耦合三维变分同化框架基础上,利用查表法获得气溶胶消光系数,然后建立气溶胶光学厚度(AerosolOpticalDepth,AOD)和气溶胶组分之间关系的观测算子、切线性观测算子和伴随观测算子,实现AOD观测资料的同化应用。针对2016年12月18-20日华北、黄淮地区一次污染天气过程进行同化预报试验,试验结果表明同化葵花-8卫星(Hi‐mawari-8)气溶胶光学厚度观测后,PM_(2.5)分析的重污染区范围有所扩大,山西东南部分析与实况分布更为接近,但是山东大部地区PM_(2.5)分析偏强,与观测相比PM_(2.5)质量浓度存在高估。同时同化Himawari-8 AOD观测和地面气溶胶站点观测的PM_(2.5)分析最优,分析与观测距平相关系数最高,平均偏差、均方根误差及标准差最小。重污染区的PM_(2.5)预报检验结果表明,同化Himawari-8AOD观测对大于350µg·m^(-3)量级PM_(2.5)预报正贡献可以持续到48 h,但整体来说,同时同化Himawari-8AOD观测和地面气溶胶站点观测对各个量级的PM_(2.5)质量浓度预报质量最优。

关键词：气溶胶光学厚度观测(AOD) CMA-MESO三维变分 CUACE 葵花-8(Himawari-8)

Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 767-776页

作者： Guo DENG xueshun shen Jun DU Jiandong GONG Hua TONG Liantang DENG Zhifang XU Jing CHEN Jian SUN Yong WANG Jiangkai HU Jianjie WANG Mingxuan CHEN Huiling YUAN Yutao ZHANG Hongqi LI Yuanzhe WANG Li GAO Li shenG Da LI Li LI Hao WANG Ying ZHAO Yinglin LI Zhili LIU Wenhua GUO China Meteorological Administration Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA College ParkMD 20740USA Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Tsinghua University Beijing 100084China

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and *** made providing meteorological services for this event particularly *** China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical *** key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was *** of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in *** meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and *** included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 *** 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting *** accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the *** program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather

关键词： Beijing Winter Olympic Games CMA national forecasting system data assimilation ensemble forecast bias correction and downscaling machine learning-based fusion methods

一种基于成对显式龙格-库塔时间积分的大气平流算法

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高原气象 2024年第2期43卷 520-528页

作者：孙朝阳陈春刚李兴良沈学顺西安交通大学力学系陕西西安710049 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心北京100081

为解决大气输送仿真中保形、正定及计算效率等问题,本研究发展了基于水平-多矩有限体积/垂直-有限差分混合格式和显式成对龙格-库塔方法的高效、高保真平流方程时空离散方案。为去除高阶算法在间断分布附近产生的数值振荡,平流方案在水... 详细信息

为解决大气输送仿真中保形、正定及计算效率等问题,本研究发展了基于水平-多矩有限体积/垂直-有限差分混合格式和显式成对龙格-库塔方法的高效、高保真平流方程时空离散方案。为去除高阶算法在间断分布附近产生的数值振荡,平流方案在水平和垂直方向分别使用了基于加权本质无振荡(weighted essentially non-oscillatory,WENO)和总变差减小(total variation diminishing,TVD)方法的斜率限制器。在时间积分中,算法使用了二阶成对显式龙格-库塔方法,通过在垂直方向增加内循环中空间离散调用次数增大求解器可用CFL数。成对龙格-库塔时间积分方法能有效缓解大气模式垂直小网格距对积分时间步长的限制,使水平、垂直方向稳定性条件允许的最大时间步长尽可能接近,从而改善模式计算效率。论文中还设计了可用于库朗(Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy,CFL)数大于1情形的迭代正定修正算法,能保证平流方程计算结果严格非负。本文采用二维标准算例对所提出的平流方程算法进行了测试和比较分析。数值试验结果表明:本文提出的算法为解决高分辨、可扩展非静力大气模式中平流输送高保真计算难题提供了一条有效途径。

关键词：平流方程成对显式龙格-库塔方法斜率限制器正定算法多矩方法

An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem:PartⅡ——Systematic Model Error Correction

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第11期32卷 1493-1503页

作者： XUE Haile shen xueshun CHOU Jifan State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences School of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Center for Numerical Prediction China Meteorological Administration

An online systematic error correction is presented and examined as a technique to improve the accuracy of real-time numerical weather prediction, based on the dataset of model errors （MEs） in past intervals. Given the analyses, the ME in each interval （6 h） between two analyses can be iteratively obtained by introducing an unknown tendency term into the prediction equation, shown in Part I of this two-paper series. In this part, after analyzing the 5-year （2001-2005） GRAPES- GFS （Global Forecast System of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） error patterns and evolution, a systematic model error correction is given based on the least-squares approach by firstly using the past MEs. To test the correction, we applied the approach in GRAPES-GFS for July 2009 and January 2010. The datasets associated with the initial condition and SST used in this study were based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results indicated that the Northern Hemispheric systematically underestimated equator-to-pole geopotential gradient and westerly wind of GRAPES-GFS were largely enhanced, and the biases of temperature and wind in the tropics were strongly reduced. Therefore, the correction results in a more skillful forecast with lower mean bias and root-mean-square error and higher anomaly correlation coefficient.

关键词： model error past data inverse problem error estimation model correction GRAPES-GFS

An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem:Part I—Model Error Estimation by Iteration

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第10期32卷 1329-1340页

Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model （model error, denoted as ME）. In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES-GFS） for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature （SST） were both based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.

关键词： model error past data inverse problem error estimation model correction GRAPES-GFS

On the development of the GRAPES――A new generation of the national operational NWP system in China

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第22期53卷 3429-3432页

作者： ZHANG RenHe shen xueshun State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) has become one of the most important means for weather fore-casts in the world. It also mirrors a nation's comprehensive strength in meteorology. In 2000, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) established the National Innovative Base for Meteorological Numerical Prediction in the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), to work on developing a new generation of the national operational NWP system――Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES), to enhance meteorological services in China in the new century. In recent years, the GRAPES has witnessed a fast development. The GRAPES has been set up as an integration of the model framework, data assimilation, regional and global NWP system, which can be commonly used for both operation and research. In this paper, a brief review is made for illustrating the GRAPES system, including the advanced designs of the GRAPES, its diverse applications in multifields, and efficiencies of the regional and global GRAPES in operational applications based on hindcast results.

关键词：数值天气预报 NWP 气象学天气预测

New Version of the CMA-GFS Dynamical Core Based on the Predictor–Corrector Time Integration Scheme

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第3期37卷 273-285页

作者： xueshun shen Yong SU Hongliang ZHANG Jianglin HU CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

The operational numerical weather prediction system established by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)model,adopts the classical semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian(SISL)time integration *** paper describes a major upgrade to the dynamical core of the CMA global forecast system(CMA-GFS),which was successfully incorporated into operation in *** the upgrade,the classical SISL is further developed into a predictor–corrector scheme,a three-dimensional(3D)reference profile instead of the original isothermal reference profile is applied when implementing the semi-implicit algorithm,and a hybrid terrain-following vertical coordinate system is also *** new version of the dynamical core greatly improves the model performance,the time integration reaches second-order accuracy,the time step can be extended by 50%,and the efficiency is greatly improved(by approximately 30%).Atmospheric circulation simulation is systematically improved,and deviations in temperature,wind,and humidity are *** new version of the dynamical core provides a solid foundation for further development of the entire operational system of the CMA.

关键词： Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES) China Meteorological Administration global forecast system(CMA-GFS) predictor-corrector three-dimensional(3D)reference profile

Model Uncertainty Representation for a Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System Based on CNOP-P

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第8期37卷 817-831页

作者： Lu WANG xueshun shen Juanjuan LIU Bin WANG Asset Operation Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Numerical Weather Prediction Center/National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Institute of Atmosphere Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Formulating model uncertainties for a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system(CAEPS)is a much more challenging problem compared to well-utilized approaches in synoptic weather forecasting.A new approach is proposed and tested through assuming that the model uncertainty should reasonably describe the fast nonlinear error growth of the convection-allowing model,due to the fast developing character and strong nonlinearity of convective *** Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameters(CNOP-P)is applied in this ***,an ensemble approach is adopted to solve the CNOP-P *** using five locally developed strong convective events that occurred in pre-rainy season of South China,the most sensitive parameters were detected based on CNOP-P,which resulted in the maximum variations in precipitation.A formulation of model uncertainty is designed by adding stochastic perturbations into these sensitive *** comparison ensemble experiments by using all the 13 heavy rainfall cases that occurred in the flood season of South China in 2017,the advantages of the CNOP-P-based method are examined and verified by comparing with the well-utilized stochastically perturbed physics tendencies(SPPT)*** results indicate that the CNOP-P-based method has potential in improving the under-dispersive problem of the current CAEPS.

关键词： CNOP-P convective scale model uncertainty ensemble forecastforecast

A Positivity-preserving Conservative Semi-Lagrangian Multi-moment Global Transport Model on the Cubed Sphere

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第9期38卷 1460-1473页

作者： Jie TANG Chungang CHEN xueshun shen Feng XIAO Xingliang LI National Meteorological Center/Center of Numerical Weather Predication China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory for Strength and Vibration of Mechanical Structures&School of Aerospace Engineering Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710049China Department of Mechanical Engineering Tokyo Institute of TechnologyTokyo 152-8850Japan

A positivity-preserving conservative semi-Lagrangian transport model by multi-moment finite volume method has been developed on the cubed-sphere *** kinds of moments(i.e.,point values(PV moment) at cell interfaces and volume integrated average(VIA moment) value) are defined within a single *** PV moment is updated by a conventional semi-Lagrangian method,while the VIA moment is cast by the flux form formulation to assure the exact numerical *** from the spatial approximation used in the CSL2(conservative semi-Lagrangian scheme with second order polynomial function) scheme,a monotonic rational function which can effectively remove non-physical oscillations is reconstructed within a single cell by the PV moments and VIA *** achieve exactly positive-definite preserving,two kinds of corrections are made on the original conservative semi-Lagrangian with rational function(CSLR)*** resulting scheme is inherently conservative,non-negative,and allows a Courant number larger than ***,the spatial reconstruction can be performed within a single cell,which is very efficient and economical for practical *** addition,a dimension-splitting approach coupled with multi-moment finite volume scheme is adopted on cubed-sphere geometry,which benefitsthe implementation of the 1 D CSLR solver with large Courant *** proposed model is evaluated by several widely used benchmark tests on cubed-sphere *** results show that the proposed transport model can effectively remove nonphysical oscillations and preserve the numerical nonnegativity,and it has the potential to transport the tracers accurately in a real atmospheric model.

关键词： global transport model cubed-sphere grid multi-moment method single-cell-based scheme conservative semi-Lagrangian method