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Forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya using SEIR and ARIMA models

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第2期7卷 179-188页

作者： Joyce Kiarie Samuel Mwalili rachel Mbogo Institute of Mathematical Sciences Strathmore UniversityNairobiKenya School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and TechnologyNairobiKenya

COVID-19,a coronavirus disease 2019,is an ongoing pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2).The first case in Kenya was identified on March 13,2020,with the pandemic increasing to about 237,000 confirmed cases and 4,746 deaths by August *** developed an SEIR model forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya using an Autoregressive Integrated moving averages(ARIMA)*** average time difference between the peaks of wave 1 to wave 4 was observed to be about 130 *** 4th wave was observed to have had the least number of daily cases at the *** to the forecasts made for the next 60 days,the pandemic is expected to continue for a *** 4th wave peaked on August 26,2021(498th day).By October 26,2021(60th day),the average number of daily infections will be 454 new cases and 40 severe cases,which would require hospitalization,and 16 critically ill cases requiring intensive care unit *** findings of this study are key in developing informed mitigation strategies to ensure that the pandemic is contained and inform the preparedness of policymakers and health care workers.

关键词： ARIMA COVID-19 Infectious disease model Forecasting SEIR Kenya pandemic

Microstructure refinement in biodegradable Zn-Cu-Ca alloy for enhanced mechanical properties,degradation homogeneity,and strength retention in simulated physiological condition

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Journal of Materials Science & Technology 2022年第30期125卷 1-14页

作者： Nan Yang Nagasivamuni Balasubramani Jeffrey Venezuela Helle Bielefeldt-Ohmann rachel Allavena Sharifah Almathami Matthew Dargusch Queensland Centre for Advanced Materials Processing and Manufacturing(AMPAM)School of Mechanical and Mining Engineering The University of QueenslandAdvanced Engineering BuildingBld 49Staff House Rd.St LuciaQLD 4072Australia School of Veterinary Science The University of QueenslandGattonQLD 4343Australia School of Chemistry and Molecular Biosciences The University of QueenslandQLD 4072Australia

Zn-1.0Cu-0.5Ca(TA15)alloy has shown promising characteristics of enhanced mechanical properties and biodegradability for absorbable cardiovascular stents,endovascular devices,and wound closure devices *** this study,the TA15 alloy for bioabsorbable biomedical applications is *** the conventionally cast TA15(TA15-C)alloy,CaZn_(13) phase are present as a large dendritic network with an average size of 73.25±112.84μm,Hot rolling of the TA15-C alloy has broken the long and dendritic network of the CaZn_(13) phases,however,the refined phases are observed as segregations and the distribution is *** segregated CaZn_(13) suffered heavy localised corrosion which lead to poor mechanical properties in the as-fabricated condition and after *** treatment(UST)during casting is identified as an effective technique for the refinement and redistribution of CaZn_(13) particles in TA15 alloy,which successfully reduce the size of the CaZn_(13) phase to 10.91±4.65μm in the as-solidified *** hot rolling,the UST processed TA15(TA15-UST)shows improved mechanical properties due to grain refinement and the reduction in microstructural defects,*** broken CaZn_(13) *** of 8-week immersion corrosion tests showed that both alloys possess very similar corrosion ***,TA15-UST has markedly improved corrosion homogeneity compared to TA15-N which favours the retention of mechanical properties even after prolonged exposure to physiological fluids.

关键词： Biodegradable Zn alloy Peritectic phase refinement In vitro corrosion Mechanical property retention Cytocompatibility

A paradigm shift in models of oral health care:An example and a call to action

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Family Medicine and Community Health 2015年第4期3卷 32-37页

作者： Bradley Christian Martin Hall rachel Martin Oral Health North Richmond Community Health LimitedRichmondVIC 3121Australia

The consequences of oral disease are wide-ranging and can have a major impact on an indi-vidual’s and that person’s family’s quality of life.A range of factors interact to determine a person’s oral and general *** factors can be biological,social,economic,political,cultural,or environmental,in addition to knowledge,attitudes and *** models of oral health care,however,have generally ignored these factors and instead have focused on the treatment and management of existing pathology(tertiary prevention/downstream approach).This has had no effect on the rate of hospitalization or the inequitable distribution of dental *** reduce the prevalence and severity of oral diseases at the individual and population levels,holistic evidence-informed prevention-based health-promoting models of care that focus on upstream determinants of health are *** Oral Health Program at North Richmond Community Health in the state of Victoria,Australia,has developed an innovative model of oral health care based on the follow-ing principles:health promotion,disease prevention,risk-based access to care,client-and family-centered care,team-based provision of care,multidisciplinary care,and *** of this approach is currently being conducted to study the sustainability of such a model under the current public dental service funding model.

关键词： Delivery of health care health promotion oral health dental health services dentistry

Late and very late onset group B Streptococcus sepsis:one and the same?

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World Journal of Pediatrics 2014年第1期10卷 24-28页

作者： Joseph B Cantey Courtney Baldridge rachel Jamison Leticia A Shanley Department of Pediatrics University of Texas Southwestern Medical CenterDallasTXUSA

Background:This study aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of group B Streptococcus(GBS)sepsis in infants aged 4–90 days[late onset(LO)]compared to infants>90 days of age[very late onset(VLO)].Methods:Microbiology records at Children’s Medical Center Dallas were ***,clinical,and outcome data were collected for infants with GBS recovered from blood or cerebrospinal fluid culture from January 1,2006 to July 1,***:Totally 48 infants were identified(42 LO,6 VLO).Infants with VLO sepsis had lower median gestational age(28.5 vs.39 weeks gestation,P<0.001)and longer median nursery admissions(8.8 vs.0.5 weeks,P=0.004).When gestational age was controlled for,there were no differences in clinical presentation,intensive care unit admission,length of stay,neurodevelopmental outcome,and *** with VLO sepsis were more likely to receive vancomycin(83%vs.33%,P=0.02)or third-generation cephalosporins(83%vs.24%,P=0.009),and more likely to continue on those agents even after GBS was ***:Infants with VLO sepsis had lower gestational ages and longer nursery stays than infants with LO *** age at presentation,there were no significant differences in clinical presentations,hospital course,frequency of neurodevelopmental sequelae,and mortality in infants presenting with LO *** GBS *** with VLO sepsis were more likely to receive empiric broad spectrum antimicrobials and more likely to continue receiving broad therapy even following GBS identification.

关键词： group B Streptococcus infant meningitis sepsis

Acorn size and tolerance to seed predators:the multiple roles of acorns as food for seed predators,fruit for dispersal and fuel for growth

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Integrative Zoology 2018年第3期13卷 251-266页

作者： Andrew W.BARTLOW Salvatore JAGOSTA rachel CURTIS Xianfeng YI Michael ASTEELE Department of Biology and The WIESS Institute for Environmental Science and Sustainability Wilkes UniversityWilkes BarrePennsylvaniaUSA Present address:Department of Biology University of UtahSalt Lake CityUtahUSA Center for Environmental Studies and Department of Biology Virginia Commonwealth UniversityRichmondVirginiaUSA Present address:Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationTexasUSA College of Life Sciences Jiangxi Normal UniversityNanchangJiangxiChina.

Fitness of parents and offspring is affected by offspring *** oaks(Quercus spp.),acorns vary considerably in size across,and within,*** size influences dispersal and establishment of oaks,but it is not known whether size imparts tolerance to seed ***,we examine the relative extent to which cotyledon size serves as both a means for sustaining partial consumption and energy reserves for developing seedlings during early stages of *** of 6 oak species were damaged to simulate acorn predation by vertebrate and invertebrate seed *** germination/emergence and growth rates were used to assess seedling *** predicted that if cotyledons are important for dispersal,acorns should show tolerance to partial seed ***,if the cotyledon functions primarily as an energy reserve,damage should significantly influence seedling *** of each species germinated and produced seedlings even after removing>50%of the *** mass explained only some of the variation in *** species,larger acorns performed better than smaller acorns when *** acorns performed as well or better than damaged *** was no pattern among individual species with increasing amounts of *** some species,simulated invertebrate damage resulted in the poorest performance,suggesting alternative strategies of oaks to sustain *** cotyledons in acorns may be important for attracting seed dispersers and sustaining partial damage,while also providing energy to young *** of oak establishment may follow from the resilience of acorns to sustain damage at an early stage.

关键词： acorns damage tolerance dispersal Quercus seed size

Challenges of modern day transition care in inflammatory bowel disease: From inflammatory bowel disease to biosimilars

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2017年第25期23卷 4473-4479页

作者： Ali Hakizimana Iftikhar Ahmed rachel Russell Mark Wright Nadeem A Afzal Department of Paediatrics University Hospital Southampton Department of Gastroenterology University Hospital Southampton Department of Hepatology University Hospital Southampton

In this article we discuss the challenges of delivering a high quality Transition care. A good understanding of the adolescent needs with good communication between Transition care physicians and the patient is essential for good continuity of care. Despite availability of several guidelines, one model doesn't fit all and any transition service development should be determined by the local need and available healthcare facilities.

关键词： Transition Adolescent Inflammatory bowel disease Biosimilar

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A bend in the stars

A bend in the stars

Energy expenditure and muscular activation patterns through active sitting on compliant surfaces

作者： rachel Barenbaum.

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Journal of Sport and Health Science 2017年第2期6卷 207-212页

作者： D.Clark Dickin rachel K.Surowiec Henry Wang Biomechanics Laboratory Ball State UniversityMuncieIN 47306USA

Purpose: To test the effectiveness of sitting surfaces with varied amounts of stability on muscle activity and energy ***: Using a within-participants repeated measures design, 11 healthy young-adult females(age = 20.0 ± 1.8 years) were measured using indirect calorimetry to assess energy expenditure, and electromyography to assess muscular activation in trunk and leg musculature under 3different sitting surfaces: flat-firm surface, air-filled cushion, and a stability ball. Data were analyzed using repeated measures analysis of variance with follow-up pairwise contrasts used to determine the specific effects of sitting surface on muscle activation and energy ***: Significantly greater energy expenditure was recorded for the stability ball(p = 0.01) and the cushion(p = 0.03) over the flat surface(10.4% and 9.6% greater, respectively), with no differences between the ball and the cushion. Both the ball and the cushion produced higher tibialis anterior activation over the flat surface(1.09 and 0.63 root-mean-square millivolts(RMSmv), respectively), while the stability ball produced higher soleus activity over both cushion and flat surfaces(3.97 and 4.24 RMSmv, respectively). Additionally, the cushion elicited higher adductor longus activity over the ball and flat surfaces(1.76 and 1.81 RMSmv, respectively), but no trunk musculature differences were ***: Compliant surfaces resulted in higher levels of muscular activation in the lower extremities facilitating increased caloric *** the increasing trends in sedentary careers and the increases in obesity, this is an important finding to validate the merits of active sitting facilitating increased caloric expenditure and muscle activation.

关键词： Energy metabolism Electromyography Female Posture Sedentary lifestyle Workplace

Key factors determining biochar sorption capacity for metal contaminants:a literature synthesis

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Biochar 2020年第2期2卷 151-163页

作者： Evert Thomas Nils Borchard Christian Sarmiento rachel Atkinson Brenton Ladd Bioversity International c/o CIP Avenida La Molina 1895La MolinaLima 12Peru Natural Resources Institute Finland(Luke) Latokartanonkaari 900790 HelsinkiFinland Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales Universidad Científica del SurLima 33Peru

The sorption capacity and affinity of biochar for metals are both important attributes that determine biochar’s suitability as a soil amendment for contaminant mitigation,yet few analyses have considered both characteristics *** present a systematic review of literature published between 2010 and 2018 to test the hypothesis that sorption capacity and affinity are affected by biochar properties,attributes of the metal contaminant,and experimental conditions,in that *** used random forest(RF)and multi-objective optimization to analyze data of 559 individual Langmuir adsorption isotherms extracted from 133 studies covering the sorption capacity(C_(max))and affinity(K_(L))of biochar for 17 different metals,elabo-rated from six different feedstock classes,three different types of feedstock pretreatment,and five types of post-pyrolysis *** sorption values were obtained for Pb(II),Cr(IV),and Cd(II).The feedstock used was the key determinant influencing biochar’s capacity and affinity to sorb metal contaminants(first and fourth most important variable in RF mod-els for C_(max) and K_(L),respectively)with best results obtained for biochar elaborated from nutrient-dense feedstocks(animal biowaste,sludge,and manure).Biochars that had both high sorption capacity and affinity were the result of a longer dura-tion of pyrolysis;they had lower C and higher N and O content,as well as lower C/N and higher O/C and H/C ratios,higher pore volumes and higher *** some form of pretreatment was better than none,whereas chemical modification was the best of the post-treatment methods *** review demonstrates clearly that multiple parameters during the preparation process influence the effectiveness of biochar to immobilize metal *** research that focuses on mechanisms and the underlying factors for the correlations observed should allow the development of biochar formulations that are even more effective at immobilizing metal

关键词： Biochar Sorption affinity Maximum sorption capacity Metal Aluminum Arsenic Langmuir absorption coefficients