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Threshold autoregression models for forecasting El Nino events

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1990年第1期9卷 61-67页

作者： pu shuzhen and yu huiling first institute of oceanography. state oceanic administration. qingdao, china

-In this paper, monthly mean SST data in a large area are used. After the spacial average of the data is carried out and the secular monthly means are substracted, a time series (Jan. 1951-Dec. 1985) of SST anomalies of the cold tongue water area in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is obtained. On the basis of the time series, an autoregression model, a self-exciting threshold autoregression model and an open loop autoregression model are developed respectively. The interannual variations are simulated by means of those models. The simulation results show that all the three models have made very good hindcasting for the nine El Nino events since 1951. In order to test the reliability of the open loop threshold model, extrapolated forecast was made for the period of Jan. 1986-Feb. 1987. It can be seen from the forecasting that the model could forecast well the beginning and strengthening stages of the recent El Nino event (1986-1987). Correlation coefficients of the estimations to observations are respectively 0. 84, 0. 88 and 0. 89. It is obvious that all the models work well and the open loop threshold one is the best. So the open loop threshold autoregression model is a useful tool for monitoring the SSTinterannual variation of the cold tongue water area in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and for estimating the El Nino strength.

关键词： Nino EI SSTA Threshold autoregression models for forecasting El Nino events El

Abnormality of thermal structure and current in the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean and its effect on subtropical high

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1992年第1期11卷 67-82页

作者： pu shuzhen yu huiling first institute of oceanography. state oceanic administration. P. O. Box 98, qingdao 266003, china

-Mainly on the basis of the data obtained during PRC/US bilateral TOGA cruises, abnormal variation occurred during the 1986/1987 El Nino is shown in this paper about the thermal structure and circulation of the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean. The effects of the abmormal variation on the subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean are discussed. During the El Nino: (1) In the east part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 165° E section are taken as an example), the water wanner than 29 C in the upper layer spread on the longitudinal section and positive temperature anormalies appeared in a large area of the sea surface. (2) In the west part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 137°E section are representative ), the cross section occupied by the upper layer warmer water ( T >28 ℃ ) became shrunk, and the sea surface temperature showed negative amomalies. (3) The eastward flows in the upper layer of the 165°E section strengthened. (4)The northward flow volume of warm water from the origin area of Kuroshio, i. e. , the tropical oceanic area south of 18?0' N and from the west of 130?E to the Philippine coast, decreased. When those kinds of abnomal variation occurred, air divergence on the low level (1 000 hPa) over the Northwest Pacific Ocean was intensified, favourable to the strengthening of subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

关键词： Abnormality of thermal structure and current in the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean and its effect on subtropical high Nino

Scaling of motion and governing equations for baroclinic large-scale motions in equatorial ocean

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2000年第1期19卷 15-24页

作者： Fan Zhisong and pu shuzhen (1. Marine Environment College, Ocean University of qingdao, qingdao 266003, china 2. first institute of oceanography. state oceanic administration. qingdao 266003, china) Marine Environment College Ocean University of Qingdao Qingdao 266003 China first institute of oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266003 China

An obvious characteristic of the baroclinic large-scale motions in the equatorial ocean is that the meridional scale H of motion is far smaller than the zonal scale L. The scaling of motion carefully with this striking characteristic in this paper results in two conclusions, i. e., the Coriolis terms associated with the horizontal component of the rotation vector cannot be neglected in the governing equations; and the use of the absence of heating is not suitable to the equatorial region. In this paper the equatorial β-plane nondimensional governing equations with the small parametersδ_0 andδ_1 have been Obtained.

关键词： Baroclinic large-scale motions in equatorial ocean horizontal component of rotation vector equatorial B-plane

Features of physical oceanography.in the oceans near the Prydz Bay during the 1998/1999 austral summer

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2006年第6期25卷 1-14页

作者： pu shuzhen hu xiaomin DONG Zhaoqian XIANG Baoqiang yu Weidong first institute of oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China Polar Research institute of china State Oceanic Administration Shanghai 200136 China

Thermohaline features, spatial extensions, and depths of the antarctic circumpolar deep water, the antarctic bottom water, and the upper layer water near the Prydz Bay （ including the Prydz Bay *** surface water, the antarctic winter water, and the Prydz Bay shelf water ） are analyzed and studied by use of the full depth CTD data obtained in the Southern Ocean near the Prydz Bay during the 1998/1999 austral summer. The northward extension of the shelf water, the thickness of the temperature inversion layer, the minima in the vertical temperature profile and the vertical temperature gradient are interpreted. On the basis of analysis of gravitational potential field, the geostrophic current and the geostrophic volume transport are calculated to determine the location of the strongest current in the zonal circulation near the Prydz Bay and to find the spatial variability of the volume transport in the64° -66.5°S zone. In addition, the central location, the frontal strength, the vertical depth and thickness of the continental water boundary （CWB） are estimated from the CTD data to expound the spatial variability of CWB in the study area （64° -66.5°S, 70° -75°E）.

关键词： circulation front Prydz Bay Southern Ocean water masses

普里兹湾附近绕极深层水和底层水及其运动特征

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海洋学报 2002年第3期24卷 1-8页

作者：蒲书箴胡筱敏董兆乾于非陈幸荣国家海洋局第一海洋研究所山东青岛266061 中国极地研究所上海200129

利用中国第 1 5次南极科学考察科学考察队的CTD全深度观测资料 ( 1 998年1 1月至 1 999年 2月 ) ,分析并讨论了普里兹湾以北的南大洋海域内 ,绕极深层水(CDW )和南极底层水 (AABW )的物理特性及其空间分布 .同时还与历史上其他学者的发...

利用中国第 1 5次南极科学考察科学考察队的CTD全深度观测资料 ( 1 998年1 1月至 1 999年 2月 ) ,分析并讨论了普里兹湾以北的南大洋海域内 ,绕极深层水(CDW )和南极底层水 (AABW )的物理特性及其空间分布 .同时还与历史上其他学者的发现进行了比较 .指出了在研究海域内 ,CDW在 1 0 0～ 2 0 0 0m之间从北向南扩展 ,其高温核 (t>1 2℃ )和高盐核 (S >34 7)在 75°E断面上最为深厚 ,向南扩展得最远 ;而AABW则在 2 50 0m以深由陆坡底部向北扩展 ,σθ>2 7 875的高密度水体在 70°E断面上最为深厚 ,向北扩展得最远 .此外还通过实测的CTD资料证实了CDW和AABW的经向环流特征 ,以及它们与迪肯流环 (Deaconcell)、亚极地流环和深层流环的一致性 .

关键词：普里兹湾绕极深层水南极底层水 CDW AABW 空间分布

Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Nina Conditions

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第3期39卷 373-385页

作者： Lijing chenG John ABRAHAM Kevin ETRENBERTH John FASULLO Tim BOYER Michael EMANN Jiang Zhu Fan WANG Ricardo LOCARNINI yuanlong LI Bin ZHANG Zhetao TAN Fujiang yu Liying WAN xingrong chen Xiangzhou SONG yulong LIU Franco RESEGHETTI Simona SIMONCELLI Viktor GOURETSKI Gengxin chen Alexey MISHONOV Jim REAGAN International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Ocean Mega-Science Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China University of St.Thomas School of EngineeringMinnesota 55105USA National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderColorado 80307USA National oceanic and Atmospheric administration National Centers for Environmental InformationSilver SpringMaryland 20910USA Department of Meteorology&Atmospheric Science The Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvania 16802USA institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Ministry of Natural Resources of ChinaBeijing 100081China College of oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China National Marine Data and Information Service Tianjin 300171China Italian National Agency for New Technologies Energy and Sustainable Economic DevelopmentS.Teresa Research CenterLerici 19032Italy Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sede di BolognaBologna 40128Italy South china Sea institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China ESSIC/CISESS-MD University of MarylandCollege ParkMD 20742USA

The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content(OHC). Here, we provide the first analysis of recent OHC changes through 2021 from two international groups. The world ocean, in 2021, was the hottest ever recorded by humans, and the 2021 annual OHC value is even higher than last year’s record value by 14 ± 11 ZJ(1 zetta J = 1021 J) using the IAP/CAS dataset and by16 ± 10 ZJ using NCEI/NOAA dataset. The long-term ocean warming is larger in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans than in other regions and is mainly attributed, via climate model simulations, to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The year-to-year variation of OHC is primarily tied to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). In the seven maritime domains of the Indian, Tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, North Pacific, Southern oceans,and the Mediterranean Sea, robust warming is observed but with distinct inter-annual to decadal variability. Four out of seven domains showed record-high heat content in 2021. The anomalous global and regional ocean warming established in this study should be incorporated into climate risk assessments, adaptation, and mitigation.

关键词： La Nina ocean heat ocean warming attribution observation

两次非典型厄尔尼诺期间热带太平洋主流系和赤道行星波研究

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海洋学报 1999年第4期21卷 27-34页

作者：石强蒲书箴苏洁尹杰国家海洋局北海分局青岛266033 国家海洋局第一海洋研究所青岛266003

两次非典型厄尔尼诺事件发生期间，Ｗａｌｋｅｒ环流中的西太平洋部分显著减弱，Ｈａｄｌｅｙ环流中的东太平洋部分显著增强．西太平洋距平西风应力增强向东伸展；东太平洋距平北风应力增强向南伸展．西太平洋暖池的能量可以两种方式向...

两次非典型厄尔尼诺事件发生期间，Ｗａｌｋｅｒ环流中的西太平洋部分显著减弱，Ｈａｄｌｅｙ环流中的东太平洋部分显著增强．西太平洋距平西风应力增强向东伸展；东太平洋距平北风应力增强向南伸展．西太平洋暖池的能量可以两种方式向东传播：赤道Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波温跃层模态和流速模态．温跃层模态向东输送的总能量大于流速模态向东输送的总能量．１９８２～１９８３年厄尔尼诺事件中，赤道Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波温跃层模态起主要作用，赤道潜流减弱；１９８６～１９８７年厄尔尼诺事件中，赤道Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波流速模态起主要作用，赤道潜流增强。厄尔尼诺事件期间，赤道潜流消失、反向现象是一种局地性海洋响应，这种现象不伴随赤道Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波向东传播．

关键词：风应力赤道潜流赤道行星波厄尔尼诺太平洋

Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第2期37卷 137-142页

作者： Lijing chenG John ABRAHAM Jiang Zhu Kevin ETRENBERTH John FASULLO Tim BOYER Ricardo LOCARNINI Bin ZHANG Fujiang yu Liying WAN xingrong chen Xiangzhou SONG yulong LIU Michael EMANN International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Ocean Mega-Science Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China University of St.Thomas School of EngineeringMinnesota 55105USA National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderColorado 80307USA National oceanic and Atmospheric administration National Centers for Environmental InformationSilver SpringMaryland 20910USA institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Ministry of Natural Resources of ChinaBeijing 100081China College of oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China National Marine Data and Information Service Tianjin 300171China Department of Meteorology&Atmospheric Science The Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvania 16802USA state Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of OceanographyHangzhou 310012China

human-emitted greenhouse gases(GHGs)have resulted in a long-term and unequivocal warming of the planet(IPCC,2019).More than 90%of the excess heat is stored within the world's oceans,where it accumulates and causes inc... 详细信息

关键词： greenhouse warming ocean

The distribution and composition of hydrocarbons in sediments of the South Mid-Atlantic Ridge

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2018年第1期37卷 89-96页

作者： huANG Xin chen Shuai WANG Xiaoyuan ZHANG Shuwen chen Fajin pu Xiaoqiang Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Coastal Ocean Variation and Disaster Prediction Guangdong Ocean University Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratory for Marine Mineral Resources Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology

Sediment samples obtained from the South Mid-Atlantic Ridge are analyzed by a gas chromatography-mass spectrometer（GC-MS） for the abundances and distributions of hydrocarbons. The hydrocarbons in the samples exhibit a bimodal distribution of n-alkanes and are rich in 3-methylalkanes, 8-methylalkanes and 2, 4,（n-1）-trimethylalkanes, which may be the result of metabolic activity of benthic microorganism. Terpanes, hopanes and steranes are all enriched in the samples, which also support the microbial origin of hydrocarbons in *** and hydrocarbons in the samples show a trend that the contents are the highest in the Samples 22V-TVG10 and 26V-TVG05 collected near hydrothermal areas, and the lowest in samples 22IV-TVG01, 22V-TVG11,and 22V-TVG14 collected far from the hydrothermal areas, which suggest the possible influence on the samples by hydrothermal activity.

关键词： hydrocarbons South Mid-Atlantic Ridge sediment hydrothermal activity