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Modeling West Nile Virus transmission in birds and humans:Advantages of using a cellular automata approach

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第1期9卷 278-297页

作者： Baki Cissé David R.Lapen KChalvet-Monfray nicholas h.ogden Antoinette Ludwig Public health Sciences Division National Microbiology LaboratoryPublic Health Agency of CanadaSt-HyacintheCanada Groupe de Recherche enÉpidémiologie des Zoonoses et SantéPublique(GREZOSP) Facultéde Médecine VétérinaireUniversitéde MontréalSaint-HyacintheQuébecCanada Ottawa Research and Development Centre Science and Technology BranchAgriculture and Agri-Food CanadaOttawaK1A 0C6Canada Universitéde Lyon INRAEVetAgro SupUMR EPIAMarcy l’EtoileFrance UniversitéClermont Auvergne INRAEVetAgro SupUMR EPIASaint-Genès-ChampanelleFrance

In Canada,the periodic circulation of West Nile Virus(WNV)is difficult to predict and,beyond climatic factors,appears to be related to the migratory movements of infected birds from the southern United *** hypothesis has not yet been explored in a spatially distributed *** main objective of this work was to develop a spatially explicit dynamic model for the transmission of WNV in Canada,that allows us to explore non-climate related hypotheses associated with WNV transmission.A Cellular Automata(CA)approach for multiple hosts(birds and humans)is used for a test region in eastern Ontario,*** tool is designed to explore the role of host and vector spatial heterogeneity,host migration,and vector feeding *** developed a spatialized compartmental SEIRDS-SEI model for WNV transmission with a study region divided into 4 rectangular *** used 2010–2021 bird data from the eBird project and 2010–2019 mosquito data collected by Ontario Public health to mimic bird and mosquito seasonal *** considered heterogeneous bird densities(high and low suitability areas)and homogeneous mosquito and human *** high suitability areas for birds,we identified 5 entry points for WNV-infected *** compared our simulations with pools of WNV-infected field collected *** and sensitivity analyses were performed using MATLAB *** results showed good correspondence between simulated and observed epidemics,supporting the validity of our model assumptions and *** analysis showed that a 5%increase or decrease in each parameter of our model except for the biting rate of bird by mosquito(c^(B,M)and mosquito natural mortality rate(d^(M)),had a very limited effect on the total number of cases(newly infected birds and humans),prevalence peak,or date of *** demonstrate the utility of the CA approach for studying WNV transmission in a heterogeneous landscape with multiple hosts.

关键词： Cellular automata Mosquito-borne diseases SEIRDS-SEI modeling West Nile Virus

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Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 123-132页

作者： Brendan P.Dougherty Ben A.Smith Carolee A.Carson nicholas h.ogden Centre for Food-borne and Environmental Zoonotic Infectious Diseases Public Health Agency of Canada370 Speedvale Ave W.GuelphONN1H 7M7Canada Public health Risk Sciences Division National Microbiology LaboratoryPublic Health Agency of Canada370 Speedvale Ave W.GuelphONN1H 7M7Canada Public health Risk Sciences Division National Microbiology LaboratoryPublic Health Agency of CanadaSt.HyacintheQCJ2S 2M2Canada

While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space,sections of the population at risk,and the efficacy of public health measures,reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of *** primary objective was to estimate the percentage of cases reported in the general community,considered as those that occurred outside of long-term care facilities(LTCFs),in specific provinces and Canada as a *** applied a methodology using the delay-adjusted case fatality ratio(CFR)to all cases and deaths,as well as those representing the general *** second objective was to assess whether the assumed CFR(mean=1.38%)was appropriate for calculating underestimation of cases in *** were developed for the period from March 11th,2020 to September 16th,*** of the percentage of cases reported(PrCR)and CFR varied spatially and temporally across *** the majority of provinces,and for Canada as a whole,the PrCR increased through the early stages of the *** estimated PrCR in general community settings for all of Canada increased from 18.1%to 69.0%throughout the entire study *** were greater when considering only those data from outside of *** estimated upper bound CFR in general community settings for all of Canada decreased from 9.07%on March 11th,2020 to 2.00%on September 16th,***,the true CFR in the general community in Canada was likely less than 2%on September *** to our analysis,some provinces,such as Alberta,Manitoba,Newfoundland and Labrador,Nova Scotia,and Saskatchewan reported a greater percentage of cases as of September 16th,compared to British Columbia,Ontario,and *** could be due to differences in testing rates and criteria,demographics,socioeconomic factors,race,and access to healthcare among the *** investigation into these factors could reveal differences among provinc

关键词： SARS-CoV-2 Underestimation Coronavirus disease Long term care facilities Case fatality ratio

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Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 664-677页

作者： Tara Sadeghieh Jan M.Sargeant Amy L.Greer Olaf Berke Guillaume Dueymes Philippe Gachon nicholas h.ogden Victoria Ng Population Medicine University of GuelphGuelphOntarioCanada Centre for Public health and Zoonoses Ontario Veterinary CollegeUniversity of GuelphGuelphOntarioCanada Public health Risk Sciences Division National Microbiology LaboratoryPublic Health Agency of CanadaGuelphOntarioSt.HyacintheQuebecCanada ESCER(Etude et Simulation du Climata l’Echelle Regionale)Centre Universite du Quebec a MontrealQuebecCanada

Introduction:Yellow fever(YF)is primarily transmitted by haemagogus species of *** climate change,mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster,potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF *** aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate,using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods:2011-2040(short-term),2041-2070(mid-term),and 2071-2100(long-term).Methods:A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares *** explore the impact of climate change,temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011-2040,2041-2070,and 2071-2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends.A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results,and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in ***:Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied,including the peak clinical case incidence,cumulative clinical case incidence,time to peak incidence,and the outbreak ***,a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was *** the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070-2100,for RCP4.5,the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161,and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 *** RCP8.5,the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147,and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 *** observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing

关键词： Yellow fever Mosquito-borne disease Climate change Infectious disease model Temperature

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Assessing the mechanism of citywide test-trace-isolate Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2022年第5期11卷 97-98页

作者： Pei Yuan Yi Tan Liu Yang Elena Arufo nicholas h.ogden Guojing Yang haixia Lu Zhigui Lin Weichuan Lin Wenjun Ma Meng Fan Kaifa Wang Jianhe Shen Tianmu Chen huaiping Zhu Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems(LAMPS) Department of Mathematics and StatisticsYork University4700 Keele StreetTorontoON M3J1P3Canada Key Laboratory of Tropical Translational Medicine of Ministry of Education and School of Tropical Medicine and Laboratory Medicine The First Afliated Hospital of Hainan Medical UniversityHainan Medical UniversityHaikouHainanChina 不详

Background:Countries that aimed for eliminating the cases of COVID-19 with test-trace-isolate policy are found to have lower infections,deaths,and better economic performance,compared with those that opted for other mitigation ***,the continuous evolution of new strains has raised the question of whether COVID-19 eradication is still possible given the limited public health response capacity and fatigue of the *** aim to investigate the mechanism of the Zero-COVID policy on outbreak containment,and to explore the possibility of eradication of Omicron transmission using the citywide test-trace-isolate(CTTI)***:We develop a compartmental model incorporating the CTTI Zero-COVID policy to understand how it contributes to the SARS-CoV-2 *** employ our model to mimic the Delta outbreak in Fujian Province,China,from September 10 to October 9,2021,and the Omicron outbreak in Jilin Province,China for the period from March 1 to April 1,*** and sensitivity analyses were conducted using dynamical system and Latin hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation Coefcient(PRCC).Results:Calibration results of the model estimate the Fujian Delta outbreak can end in 30(95%confdence interval CI:28–33)days,after 10(95%CI:9–11)rounds of citywide *** emerging Jilin Omicron outbreak may achieve zero COVID cases in 50(95%CI:41–57)days if supported with sufcient public health resources and population compliance,which shows the efectiveness of the CTTI Zero-COVID ***:The CTTI policy shows the capacity for the eradication of the Delta outbreaks and also the Omicron ***,the implementation of radical CTTI is challenging,which requires routine monitoring for early detection,adequate testing capacity,efcient contact tracing,and high isolation compliance,which constrain its benefts in regions with limited ***,these challenges become even more acute in the face of more contagious variant

关键词： COVID-19 Transmission model Zero-COVID policy Citywide testing Test-trace-isolate Exit strategy

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Aggregation-induced emission polymers via reversible-deactivation radical polymerization Special Collection:Distinguished Australian Researchers

Aggregate

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Aggregate 2024年第1期5卷 16-46页

作者： nicholas Kai Shiang Teo Bo Fan Aditya Ardana San h.Thang School of Chemistry Monash UniversityClaytonVictoriaAustralia

Aggregation-induced emission(AIE)is a unique phenomenon whereby aggregation of molecules induces fluorescence emission as opposed to the more commonly known aggregation-caused quenching(ACQ).AIE has the potential to be utilized in the large-scale production of AIE-active polymeric materials because of their wide range of practical applications such as stimuli-responsive sensors,biological imaging agents,and drug delivery *** is evident from the increasing number of publications over the years since AIE was first *** addition,the evergrowing interest in this field has led many researchers around the world to develop new and creative methods in the design of monomers,initiators and crosslinkers,with the goal of broadening the scope and utility of AIE *** of the most promising approaches to the design and synthesis of AIE polymers is the use of the reversible-deactivation radical polymerization(RDRP)techniques,which enabled the production of well-controlled AIE materials that are often difficult to achieve by other *** this review,a summary of some recent works that utilize RDRP for AIE polymer design and synthesis is presented,including(i)the design of AIE-related monomers,initiators/crosslinkers;the achievements in preparation of AIE polymers using(ii)reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer(RAFT)technique;(iii)atom transfer radical polymerization(ATRP)technique;(iv)other techniques such as Cu(0)-RDRP technique and nitroxide-mediated polymerization(NMP)technique;(v)the possible applications of these AIE polymers,and finally(vi)a summary/perspective and the future direction of AIE polymers.

关键词： aggregation-induced emission atom transfer radical polymerization nitroxide-mediated polymerization reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer reversible-deactivation radical polymerization

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Analytical model for predicting folding stable state of bistable deployable composite boom

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2024年第8期37卷 460-469页

作者： Tianwei LIU Jiangbo BAI nicholas FANTUZZI School of Transportation Science and Engineering Beihang UniversityBeijing 100191China Jingdezhen Research Institute of Beihang University Jingdezhen 333000China DICAM Department University of BolognaBologna 40136Italy

Bistable Deployable Composite Boom(Bi-DCB)can achieve bistable function by storing and releasing strain energy,which has a good application prospect in space *** example,it serves as the main support section of deployable structures(e.g.,solar arrays and antennas).This paper investigates folding stable state of Bi-DCB through the analytical *** on Archimedes’helix and energy principle,an analytical model for predicting folding stable state of Bi-DCB was *** failure index of Bi-DCB in folding stable state were analyzed using the Tsai-hill criterion and the maximum stress ***,a 2400 mm long Bi-DCB was fabricated using autoclave *** prediction results of the proposed model were compared with experiments and results of two other analytical *** is shown that the proposed model shows good prediction ***,the effect of geometric parameters on folding stable state of Bi-DCB was further investigated with the aid of the proposed model.

关键词： Bistable Deployable composite boom Solar arrays Antennas Archimedes’helix Folding Failure analysis

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SRMD:Sparse Random Mode Decomposition

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Communications on Applied Mathematics and Computation 2024年第2期6卷 879-906页

作者： nicholas Richardson hayden Schaeffer Giang Tran University of Waterloo WaterlooONCanada University of British Columbia VancouverBCCanada University of California Los AngelesCAUSA

Signal decomposition and multiscale signal analysis provide many useful tools for timefrequency *** proposed a random feature method for analyzing time-series data by constructing a sparse approximation to the *** randomization is both in the time window locations and the frequency sampling,which lowers the overall sampling and computational *** sparsification of the spectrogram leads to a sharp separation between time-frequency clusters which makes it easier to identify intrinsic modes,and thus leads to a new data-driven mode *** applications include signal representation,outlier removal,and mode *** benchmark tests,we show that our approach outperforms other state-of-the-art decomposition methods.

关键词： Sparse random features Signal decomposition Short-time Fourier transform

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Cell-type resolved transcriptomic approaches for dissecting selective vulnerability in neurodgeneration

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Neural Regeneration Research 2024年第7期19卷 1411-1413页

作者： Caleb A.Wood nicholas M.Tran Department of Neuroscience Baylor College of MedicineHoustonTXUSA Department of Molecular and human Genetics Baylor College of MedicineHoustonTXUSA

A common feature among neurodegenerative conditions is that ce rtain neuronal populations are selectively vulnerable to loss(Fu et al.,2018).By corollary,other neurons are selectively resilient,suggesting they may possess unique features that support their survival.U nderstanding the basis of neuronal resilience or vulnerability would provide a logical strategy to identify factors that could be targeted therapeutically.

关键词： selective targeted

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Invasive weed disrupts facilitation of nutrient uptake in grass-clover assemblage

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Soil Ecology Letters 2024年第1期6卷 89-96页

作者： Wei Zhang Rick Muir nicholas Dickinson Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences Lincoln UniversityLincoln 7647New Zealand

Nutrient constraints in low-fertility soil were modified by different species ***-clover assemblages benefited both species in terms of nutrient *** of competition and facilitation is *** invasive weed removed essential nutrients from the grazing *** investigate the interplay of competition and facilitation between plants in low-fertility pasture grasslands of New Zealand,we compared nutrient uptake and acquisition of key nutrients of three species from different func-tional *** of Pilosella officinarum(mouse-eared hawk-weed,an invasive weed),Trifolium repens(white clover,a nitrogen fixer)and Dactylis glomerata(cocksfoot,a pasture grass)were planted into a soil with low-to-deficient concentrations of key *** yields were achieved by the grass growing alone but,when the clover and grass had grown together,there were complementary benefits in terms of procurement of a wide range of nutrients from soil despite lower root *** inva-sive weed negated these benefits,and soil nutrients were exploited less efficiently when Pilosella had grown alone or in a mixture with the other *** from the weed removed the benefits of grass-legume *** findings are interpreted to suggest that requirements for legumes to be the main source of nitrogen in pasture grasslands may be compromised unless competitive weeds are controlled to avoid disrupted procurement of key *** is likely these constraints to nutrient procurement would similarly impact conservation grasslands.

关键词： soil ferility facilitation species coexistence weed invasion legumes

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Anthropogenic Influence on Decadal Changes in Concurrent hot and Dry Events over China around the Mid-1990s

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 233-246页

作者： Qin SU Buwen DONG Fangxing TIAN nicholas P.KLINGAMAN Yunnan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters and Climate Resources in the Great Mekong Subregion Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingRG66BBUK Geofysisk Institut University of BergenBergen 5007Norway Citadel Investment Group Moor House120 London WallLondonRG66BBUK

The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(hDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in hDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China(SEC), northern China(NC), and northeastern China(NEC). The frequency of hDEs averaged over China in the present day(PD,1994–2011) is double that in the early period(EP, 1964–81);the duration of hDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model(MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to hDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes,suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on hDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas(GhG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes,increasing the frequency and duration of hDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol(AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of hDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GhGs. The changes in hDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of hDEs to GhG and AA changes are also revealed.

关键词： concurrent hot and dry events decadal variation greenhouse gases aerosol emissions

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