Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios

作     者：Brendan P.Dougherty Ben A.Smith Carolee A.Carson Nicholas H.Ogden 

作者机构：Centre for Food-borne and Environmental Zoonotic Infectious DiseasesPublic Health Agency of Canada370 Speedvale Ave W.GuelphONN1H 7M7Canada Public Health Risk Sciences DivisionNational Microbiology LaboratoryPublic Health Agency of Canada370 Speedvale Ave W.GuelphONN1H 7M7Canada Public Health Risk Sciences DivisionNational Microbiology LaboratoryPublic Health Agency of CanadaSt.HyacintheQCJ2S 2M2Canada 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期

页      面：123-132页

学科分类：1204[管理学-公共管理] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This work was funded by the Public Health Agency of Canada 

主　　题：SARS-CoV-2 Underestimation Coronavirus disease Long term care facilities Case fatality ratio 

摘      要：While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space,sections of the population at risk,and the efficacy of public health measures,reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of *** primary objective was to estimate the percentage of cases reported in the general community,considered as those that occurred outside of long-term care facilities(LTCFs),in specific provinces and Canada as a *** applied a methodology using the delay-adjusted case fatality ratio(CFR)to all cases and deaths,as well as those representing the general *** second objective was to assess whether the assumed CFR(mean=1.38%)was appropriate for calculating underestimation of cases in *** were developed for the period from March 11th,2020 to September 16th,*** of the percentage of cases reported(PrCR)and CFR varied spatially and temporally across *** the majority of provinces,and for Canada as a whole,the PrCR increased through the early stages of the *** estimated PrCR in general community settings for all of Canada increased from 18.1%to 69.0%throughout the entire study *** were greater when considering only those data from outside of *** estimated upper bound CFR in general community settings for all of Canada decreased from 9.07%on March 11th,2020 to 2.00%on September 16th,***,the true CFR in the general community in Canada was likely less than 2%on September *** to our analysis,some provinces,such as Alberta,Manitoba,Newfoundland and Labrador,Nova Scotia,and Saskatchewan reported a greater percentage of cases as of September 16th,compared to British Columbia,Ontario,and *** could be due to differences in testing rates and criteria,demographics,socioeconomic factors,race,and access to healthcare among the *** investigation into these factors could reveal differences among provinc