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The effect of the infection within the individual host on its propagation in the population

Infectious Disease Modelling 2018年第1期3卷 345-361页

作者： Franciane Azevedo marcos amaku Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho Luis Fernandez Lopez Eduardo Massad Faculdade de Engenharia da Computaçaoe Engenharia Eletrica Universidade Federal do Sul e Sudeste do ParaMarabaPABrazil Faculdade de Medicina Universidade de Sao Pauloe LIM01-HCFMUSPAv.Dr.Arnaldo 455Sao PauloSP01246-903Brazil Faculdade de Medicina Veterinariae Zootecnia Universidade de Sao PauloSao PauloSP05508-270Brazil London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine LondonUK Escola de Matematica Aplicada Fundaçao Getúlio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil College of Natural and Life Sciences The University of DerbyDerbyUK

We consider nested or multiscale models to study the effect of the temporal evolution of the disease within the host in the population dynamics of the disease,for one and two infectious agents.We assumed a coupling between the within-host infection rate and the between-host transmission rate.The age of infection within each individual in a population affects the probability of transmission of the disease to a susceptible host and this will affect the temporal evolution of the disease in the host population.To analyze the infection within the host,we consider bacterial-like and viral-like infections.In the model for two infectious agents,we found that,when strain 2 has a basic reproduction number R02 greater than the basic reproduction number R01 of strain 1,strain 2 replaces strain 1 in the population.However,if R02>R01 but the values are closer,the replacement does not occur immediately and both strains can coexist for a long time.We applied the model to a scenario in which patients infected with the hepatitis C virus(HCV)are cleared of HCV when super-infected with the hepatitis A virus(HAV).We compared the time for the replacement of HCV by HAV in the population considering instantaneous and noninstantaneous replacement within the individuals.The model developed can be generalized for more than two infectious agents.

关键词： Nested model Multiscale model Within-host infection Between-host transmission Infectious disease

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Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 46-55页

作者： marcos amaku Dimas Tadeu Covas Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho Raymundo Soares Azevedo Neto Claudio Struchiner Annelies Wilder-Smith Eduardo Massad School of Medicine University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSPSao PauloBrazil Instituto Butantan Sao PauloBrazil School of Applied Mathematics Fundacao Getulio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil School of Veterinary Medicine University of Sao PauloSao PauloBrazil Department Public Health and Clinical Heidelberg Institute of Global HealthUniversity of HeidelbergGermany Medicine Epidemiology and Global HealthUmeåUniversitySE-90185UmeåSweden Department of Disease Control London School of Hygiene and TropicalMedicineUK

Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society.In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-andquarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo,Brasil.The State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy,reaching at most 59%in late March and started to relax the measures in late June,dropping to 41%in 08 August.Therefore,São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the epidemic.Two alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were simulated.One strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State,reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD,that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%.The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts e this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%.The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st,it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90%at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Testing Cost-analysis Modelling

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Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2017年第4期2卷 441-454页

作者： Eduardo Massad marcos amaku Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho Claudio JoséStruchiner Luis Fernandez Lopez Annelies Wilder-Smith Marcelo Nascimento Burattini School of Medicine University of Sao PauloBrazil London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine UK College of Life and Natural Sciences The University of DerbyUK Programme of Scientific Computation Fundação Oswaldo CruzRio de JaneiroBrazil Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute St Michael's HospitalTorontoCanada Institute of Public Health University of HeidelbergGermany Department Public Health and Clinical Medicine Epidemiology and Global HealthUmeåUniversitySE-90185 UmeåSweden Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine Nanyang Technological UniversitySingapore Hospital São Paulo Escola Paulista de MedicinaUniversidade Federal de São PauloSão PauloSPBrazil

In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue.The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections,from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived straightforwardly.Further derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes'densities,the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes'density.The method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.

关键词： Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes'densities Dengue Zika virus Yellow fever

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Dengue Epidemiology in a Brazilian Community

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Open Journal of Epidemiology 2020年第1期10卷 43-54页

作者： Wilson Mansho Fernando Ferreira Iná Kakitani Raymundo Soares Azevedo marcos amaku Zoonosis Control Center Municipal Health Secretariat Guarulhos City Hall Guarulhos Brazil Department of Preventive Veterinary Medicine and Animal Health School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil Department of Epidemiology School of Public Health University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil Department of Pathology School of Medicine University of São Paulo and LIM01/HCFMUSP São Paulo Brazil

Dengue is a major vector-borne disease and has motivated health surveillance systems to implement various measures to control it. The epidemiological characterization of dengue occurrence in a community is an important step to foster control activities. We carried out an epidemiological study of the notified and confirmed cases of dengue, from 2000 to 2005, in Guarulhos, State of São Paulo, Brazil. A statistical analysis was performed to test the differences, by sex and age, between the database and the individuals of the population. We also performed a time series analysis of the cases from 2000 to 2007. No statistically significant differences (P > 0.05) were observed between the proportions for each sex in the data base and in the city population, and in the categories of 15 - 19 years, 20 - 24 years, 25 - 29 years, 55 - 59 years, 60 - 64 years and 70 - 74 years when compared with the corresponding age intervals in the population. In the other age intervals, statistically significant differences were observed (P < 0.05). We observed a cyclic variation in the dengue incidence, between 2000 and 2007, with an alternation of two years with a smaller number of cases (2000-2001 and 2004-2005) and two years with a larger number of cases (2002-2003 and 2006-2007). In the seasonality analysis, the number of cases between February and May was higher than the monthly average. Analyzing the spatial distribution of the cases, we observed the process of increasing endemicity of dengue.

关键词： Dengue Seasonality Cyclic Variation Endemicity Guarulhos

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Analogy between the Formulation of Ising-Glauber Model and Si Epidemiological Model

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Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics 2019年第5期7卷 1052-1066页

作者： Cristina Gabriela Aguilar Lara Eduardo Massad Luis Fernandez Lopez marcos amaku Faculty of Medicine University of S&#227 o Paulo S&#227 o Paulo Brazil

From the mathematical point of view, the modeling of epidemics—in other words, the spread of infectious diseases transmitted from individual to individual—is very similar to the modeling of the magnetic systems studied by statistical physics. In this work, we use this analogy between mathematical epidemiology and statistical physics to study the classical mathematical model of epidemiology SI (Susceptible-Infected) approached through the Ising-Glauber model, in which individuals would be represented by atoms with spins -1 (susceptible) and 1 (infected). A Monte Carlo computational simulation was also performed for the Ising-Glauber model in a square network, where each network point represents an individual and the down and up spins represent susceptible and infected individuals.

关键词： Ising-Glauber Model Epidemiology Computer Simulation

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