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Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

Chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第18期51卷 2260-2267页

作者： XU Yinlong ZHANG Yong lin erda lin Wantao DONG Wenjie Richard Jones David Hassell Simon Wilson Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China National Climate Center Beijing 100081 China Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Exeter EXI 3PB UK

The PRECIS,a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Cen- tre for Climate Prediction and Research,which is nested in one-way mode within the HadAM3P,a higher-resolution version of the atmospheric com- ponent of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3,is employed to simulate the baseline (1961—1990) climate for evaluation of model’s capacity of simu- lating present climate and analyze the future climate change responses in the time-slice of 2071—2100 (2080s) under SRES B2 scenario over China relative to baseline average. It is indicated from the com- parison of the simulated baseline climate with in situ observation that PRECIS can simulate the local dis- tribution characteristics of surface air temperature over China quite well; generally speaking,the simu- lation for precipitation in the north of China and in winter is better than in the south of China and in summer,respectively; the simulation of precipitation in summer is sensitive to topography,and the simu- lated precipitation values are lower than observations over southeast coastal areas. It is shown from the analyses on the simulated climate change responses in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to base- line that there would be an obvious surface air tem- perature increase in the north of China relative to that in the south of China,and especially in Northwest China and Northeast China,the amplitude ofsummer mean surface air temperature increments could reach 5℃; there would be an overall increase of the simulated precipitation in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario over most areas of China,while there would be significant precipitation decreases in South China in winter; there would be obvious precipitation decreases in Northeast China and North China in summer with high surface air temperature increase. However,it presents an obvious precipitation in- crease over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer.

关键词：地面气温降水 PRECIS 气候变化中国

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Northward-shift of temperature zones in China＇s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2010年第5期20卷 643-651页

作者： WU Shaohong ZHENG Du YIN Yunhe lin erda XU Yinlong Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research CAS Beijing 100085 China Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture CAAS Beijing 100081 China

Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species＇ ranges, eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems. Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario. Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961-2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS. The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10℃ and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones, which are sensitive to climate change. Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period （1961-1990）. Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical, Subtropical, Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate, Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced. Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century. North bor- derlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change, especially in East China. Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate, Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1°, 5.3° and 6.6° latitude respectively. Moreover, northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased.

关键词： temperature zone climate change shift eco-geographical study

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Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第8期56卷 729-737页

作者： YAO FengMei QIN PengCheng ZHANG JiaHua lin erda BOKEN Vijendra College of Earth Science Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100094 China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China School of Geoscience Yangtze University Jingzhou 434025 China Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 China Department of Geography and Earth Science University of Nebraska at Kearney Kearney NE 68849 USA

Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on *** assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties,impeding effective decision-making to climate *** the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels,this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection,the assessment process,and the crop models linking to climate ***,techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced,and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed ***,in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture,improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.

关键词：不确定性模型影响评估气候变化农业影响模型模拟不确定性传播气候预测气候模型

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The Core Conclusions and Interpretation of Working Group Ⅱ Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies 2015年第1期 53-62页

作者： LI Xiucang JIANG Tong CHAO Qingchen XU Hongmei YUAN Jiashuang lin erda National Climate Center Department of Science and Climate Change China Meteorological Administration Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) released the Working Group Ⅱ contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report(WGII AR5) IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability in March 2014. This paper introduces and interprets this report, making well organization of the main conclusions, analyzing the new enlightenment to China’s response to climate change. WGII AR5 focuses on the assessment and management of climate change risks. According to the latest scientific literature and evidences, this report elaborates climate change’s broader impacts on water resource, food production, and other natural and human social systems since2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report(AR4). Via the assessment of different areas, regions, and key risks in the future, the report indicates the risk level of climate change faced with the globe under different temperature rise; aiming at risk management, the report emphasizes the significance of promoting and establishing the sustainable development society with recovery capacity through adaptation and mitigation of climate change. As an important scientific basis for international community to recognize and cope with climate change, the publication of IPCC AR5 one after another will have a significant influence on Durban Platform negotiations on post-2020 international climate regime which have been in a difficult stage, and the 2014 United Nations climate change summit [IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impact Adaptation, and *** of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press].

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Responses of food production systems to climate change:sensitivity and vulnerability

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2014年第3期12卷 227-232页

作者： Liyong Xie Yue Li Fengkui Qian Hongliang Zhao Xue Han erda lin College of Agronomy Shenyang Agricultural University College of Land and Environment Shenyang Agricultural University Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Climate warming has prolonged the optimization of crop-growing seasons,shortened actual growth periods,and changed crop-planting *** also has boosted crop yields in certain regions while compromising crop quality and affected the occurrence of meteorological disasters and pest diseases damage,which has resulted in reduction in grain *** production systems will evidence more sensitivity to climate change in future;for example,with an increase of 1°C in temperature,the average growth period will be shortened by 17 days for winter wheat and 7-8 days for maize and *** course regional differences will *** change will threaten crop yield stability and affect crop *** will be addressed in regard to extreme climatic events,which include reducing exposure and improving adaptive capacity,because the exposure of rain-fed agriculture is greater than that of irrigated ***,we propose three suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of crop production systems to climate ***,strengthen the evaluation capacity construction of sensitivity,which includes(1)refining and improving all types of evaluation indicator systems and models;(2)innovating and developing evaluation methods and tools;and(3)combining field observation and case studies,so that(1)the impact of climate change and sensitivity can be assessed scientifically;(2)uncertainty in the study can be identified and reduced;and(3)improved understanding of climate systems and their changes,climate change impact,and sensitivity will be ***,strengthen adaptive capacity construction for crop production systems,which includes(1)rebuilding existing farmland infrastructure to improve meteorological disaster defences;(2)adjusting agriculture structure and adopting new crop varieties with enhanced resistance;(3)popularizing water-saving technology and dry farming technology;and(4)further researching interdisciplinary theories and ***,strengthen

关键词： climate change food production impact and adaptation sensitivity vulnerability exposure resilience

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中国农业温室气体减排交易的机遇与挑战

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气候变化研究进展 2012年第1期8卷 54-59页

作者：孙芳林而达中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所北京100081 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所北京100081

在介绍国际碳市场情况的基础上,总结潜在的农业温室气体减排交易项目类型,探讨中国如何在国际碳市场前景不明朗、自愿碳市场刚刚起步,以及国内实现节能减排目标和实施生态补偿机制的机遇中,克服农业温室气体减排项目所面临的单位减排量... 详细信息

在介绍国际碳市场情况的基础上,总结潜在的农业温室气体减排交易项目类型,探讨中国如何在国际碳市场前景不明朗、自愿碳市场刚刚起步,以及国内实现节能减排目标和实施生态补偿机制的机遇中,克服农业温室气体减排项目所面临的单位减排量小、交易成本高、方法学和独立的第三方认证机构缺乏,以及国内交易平台尚不规范的困难,积极探索利用市场机制控制农业温室气体排放的方法。

关键词：农业温室气体碳减排市场机制

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Grassland degradation in Northern Tibet based on remote sensing data

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2006年第2期16卷 165-173页

作者： GAO Qingzhu LI Yu＇e WAN Yunfan lin erda XIONG Wei JIANGCUN Wangzha WANG Baoshan LI Wenfu Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development for Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081China Naqu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Bureau Tibet Autonomous RegionNaqu 852100China

This study selected vegetation cover as the main evaluation index, calculated the grassland degradation index （GDI） and established the remote sensing monitoring and evaluation system for grassland degradation in Northern Tibet, according to the National Standard （GB19377-2003）, based on the remote sensing data such as NDVI data derived from NOAA/AVHRR with a spatial resolution of 8 km of 1981-2000, from SPOT/VGT with a spatial resolution of 1 km of 2001 and from MODIS with a spatial resolution of 0.25 km of 2002-2004 respectively in this area, in combination with the actual condition of grassland degradation. The grassland degradation processes and their responses to climate change during 1981-2004 were discussed and analyzed in this paper. The result indicated that grassland degradation in Northern Tibet is very serious, and the mean value of GDI in recent 20 years is 2.54 which belongs to the serious degradation grade. From 1981 to 2004, the GDI fluctuated distinctly with great interannual variations in the proportion of degradation degree and GDI but the general tendency turned to severe-grade during this period with the grassland degradation grade changed from light degraded to serious degraded in Northern Tibet. The extremely serious degraded and serious degraded grassland occupied 1.7% and 8.0% of the study area, the moderate and light degraded grassland accounted for 13.2% and 27.9% respectively, and un-degraded grassland occupied 49.2% of the total grassland area in 2004. The grassland degradation was serious, especially in the conjunctive area of Naqu, Biru and Jiali counties, the headstream of the Yangtze River lying in the Galadandong snow mountain and glaciers, the area along the Qinghai-Tibet highway and railway, and areas around the Tanggula and Nianqingtanggula snow mountains and glaciers. So the snow mountains and glaciers as well as their adjacent areas in Northern Tibet were sensitive to climate change and the areas along the vital communication l

关键词： grassland degradation temporal and spatial distribution remote sensing monitoring

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气候变化对我国自然生态系统影响的研究综述

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生态学杂志 2000年第5期19卷 62-66页

作者：钟秀丽林而达中国农业科学院农业气象研究所北京100081

Impacts of global changes on the ecosystems in China and projection of response of the ecosystems to climate changes under some scenarios are reviewed in this *** ecosystems dealt with include forests, rangelands,dese... 详细信息

关键词：自然生态系统气候变化森林群落荒漠化过程

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减缓全球变暖与温室气体吸收汇研究进展

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地球科学进展 1999年第4期14卷 384-390页

作者：郭李萍林而达中国农业科学院农业气象研究所

对减缓全球气候变化与温室气体“汇”的最新研究进展作了较为详尽的综述。针对目前温室气体汇研究中的主要前沿科学问题进行了深入分析：包括汇的定义、种类及方法学问题，土地利用变化和森林以及农业土壤汇的种类及计算中存在的一些问... 详细信息

对减缓全球气候变化与温室气体“汇”的最新研究进展作了较为详尽的综述。针对目前温室气体汇研究中的主要前沿科学问题进行了深入分析：包括汇的定义、种类及方法学问题，土地利用变化和森林以及农业土壤汇的种类及计算中存在的一些问题，人类活动对自然生态系统源汇状况的影响等；还对估算各种温室气体源汇的不确定性作了分析总结；在列举了一些气候变化框架公约缔约国及发展中国家对《京都议定书》中引入温室气体“汇”的看法及态度后，提出了在编制温室气体国家清单及估算“吸收汇”计算过程中应注意的问题。

关键词：全球变化温室气体土地利用变化森林

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区域气候模式与作物模型联接的影响评估模拟实验及不确定性分析

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生态学杂志 2005年第7期24卷 741-746页

作者：熊伟许吟隆林而达田展中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所北京100081

利用英国Hadley中心开发的区域气候模式RCMPRECIS(网格分辨率50km×50km),与经过田间试验资料和历史气候资料验证和校准过的CERES系列作物模式相结合,就区域气候模式与作物模式联接的影响评估方法及其不确定性进行了评估。结果表明,相... 详细信息

利用英国Hadley中心开发的区域气候模式RCMPRECIS(网格分辨率50km×50km),与经过田间试验资料和历史气候资料验证和校准过的CERES系列作物模式相结合,就区域气候模式与作物模式联接的影响评估方法及其不确定性进行了评估。结果表明,相对于大气环流模型来说,区域气候模式与作物模型的结合省去了随机天气发生器的中间环节,减小了不确定性产生的因素。在站点模拟上,该方法在平原地区的模拟效果较好,而山区的模拟效果较差,但如果能用实测天气数据对模拟的天气数据进行验证,模拟效果明显提高。在区域模拟上,该方法可以较好地体现出产量变化的空间分布规律,但由于空间数据的限制,模拟产量与实际产量的偏差较站点水平要大。

关键词：气候变化区域气候模式作物模型不确定性

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