Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

作     者：XU Yinlong ZHANG Yong LIN Erda LIN Wantao DONG Wenjie Richard Jones David Hassell Simon Wilson 

作者机构：Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China National Climate Center Beijing 100081 China Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Exeter EXI 3PB UK 

出 版 物：《Chinese Science Bulletin》 (CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN)

年 卷 期：2006年第51卷第18期

页      面：2260-2267页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070602[理学-大气物理学与大气环境] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：2004BA611B02 UK-China Critical Zone Observatory,CZO 

主　　题：地面气温 降水 PRECIS 气候变化 中国 

摘      要：The PRECIS,a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Cen- tre for Climate Prediction and Research,which is nested in one-way mode within the HadAM3P,a higher-resolution version of the atmospheric com- ponent of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3,is employed to simulate the baseline (1961—1990) climate for evaluation of model’s capacity of simu- lating present climate and analyze the future climate change responses in the time-slice of 2071—2100 (2080s) under SRES B2 scenario over China relative to baseline average. It is indicated from the com- parison of the simulated baseline climate with in situ observation that PRECIS can simulate the local dis- tribution characteristics of surface air temperature over China quite well; generally speaking,the simu- lation for precipitation in the north of China and in winter is better than in the south of China and in summer,respectively; the simulation of precipitation in summer is sensitive to topography,and the simu- lated precipitation values are lower than observations over southeast coastal areas. It is shown from the analyses on the simulated climate change responses in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to base- line that there would be an obvious surface air tem- perature increase in the north of China relative to that in the south of China,and especially in Northwest China and Northeast China,the amplitude ofsummer mean surface air temperature increments could reach 5℃; there would be an overall increase of the simulated precipitation in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario over most areas of China,while there would be significant precipitation decreases in South China in winter; there would be obvious precipitation decreases in Northeast China and North China in summer with high surface air temperature increase. However,it presents an obvious precipitation in- crease over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer.