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prediction model for spring dust weather frequency in North china

Science china Earth sciences 2008年第5期51卷 709-720页

作者： lang xianmei center for disastrous climate research and prediction, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100029,{3. center for disastrous climate {3. and prediction Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North china. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in Beijing and Tianjin observation stations, taken as examples in North china, and seasonally averaged surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, South Oscillation, near surface meridional wind and Eurasian westerly index is respectively calculated so as to construct a prediction model for spring DWF in North china by using these climatic factors. Two prediction models, i.e. model-I and model-II, are then set up respectively based on observed climate data and the 3.-year (1970 -2001) extra-seasonal hindcast experiment data as reproduced by the nine-level atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the institute of atmospheric physics (IAP9L-AGCM). It is indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted DWF reaches 0.93. in the model-I, suggesting a high prediction skill one season ahead. The corresponding value is high up to 0.948 for the subsequent model-II, which involves synchronous spring climate data reproduced by the IAP9L-AGCM relative to the model-I. The model-II can not only make more precise prediction but also can bring forward the lead time of real-time prediction from the model-I’s one season to half year. At last, the real-time predictability of the two models is evaluated. It follows that both the models display high prediction skill for both the interannual variation and linear trend of spring DWF in North china, and each is also featured by different advantages. As for the model-II, the prediction skill is much higher than that of original approach by use of the IAP9L-AGCM alone. Therefore, the prediction idea put forward here should be popularized in other regions in china where dust weather occurs frequently.

关键词： spring dust weather frequency prediction model iap9l-agcm hindcast experiment real-time prediction

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Extraseasonal ensemble numerical predictions of winter climate over china

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第19期48卷 2121-2125页

作者： lang xianmei, WANG Huijun & JIANG Dabang Nansen-Zhu International research {3. and LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, china Nansen Zhu International research center and LASG institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences China

Using the nine-level atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the institute of atmospheric physics (IAP9L-AGCM) under the chinese academy of sciences, 3.-year extraseasonal short-term ensemble hincast of winter {3. is performed, with integrations starting from annual autumn during 1969—1998. Winter {3. predictability over china is then evaluated for the first time. It follows that the predictability is higher in tropics than in extratropics. Also, it is higher over ocean compared with land, especially for surface air temperature. With height increasing in troposphere, the predictability of geopotential height slightly changes zonally, but for weakening of band-ship distribution and dropping near the date line. Of all analyzed variables, the prediction skill of air temperature and geopotential height (precipitation) is the highest (smallest). In addition, the predictability of winter {3. over china and even East Asia enhances obviously during ENSO cycle, especially during La Nia phase. Simulation comparison against verifying analysis for surface temperature anomaly exhibits the model抯 skill in predicting surface temperature抯 interannual variation trend in winter.

关键词：冬季气候中国气候预报数字模型表面温度

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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023.

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN xianmei lang Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International center for climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023.the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023.24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the institute of atmospheric physics at the chinese academy of sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3.months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter {3. in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023.24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in china will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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Evaluation of East Asian Summer climate prediction from the CESM Large-Ensemble Initialized Decadal prediction Project

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Journal of Meteorological research 2020年第2期34卷 252-263页

作者： Dabang JIANG Dong SI xianmei lang institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100029 CAS center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth sciences Beijing 100101 University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049

Based on surface air temperature and precipitation observation data and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data,this study evaluates the prediction of East Asian summer climate during 1959–2016 undertaken by the CESM(Community Earth System Model)large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction(CESM-DPLE)*** results demonstrate that CESM-DPLE can reasonably capture the basic features of the East Asian summer climate and associated main atmospheric circulation *** general,the prediction skill is quite high for surface air temperature,but less so for precipitation,on the interannual ***-DPLE reproduces the anomalies of mid-and highlatitude atmospheric circulation and the East Asian monsoon and climate reasonably well,all of which are attributed to the teleconnection wave train driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).A transition into the warm phase of the AMO after the late 1990s decreased the geopotential height and enhanced the strength of the monsoon in East Asia via the teleconnection wave train during summer,leading to excessive precipitation and warming over East ***,CESM-DPLE is capable of predicting the summer temperature in East Asia on the interannual timescale,as well as the interdecadal variations of East Asian summer climate associated with the transition of AMO phases in the late 1990s,albeit with certain inadequacies *** CESM-DPLE project provides an important resource for investigating and predicting the East Asian climate on the interannual and decadal timescales.

关键词： Community Earth System Model(CESM) large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction(DPLE) climate prediction East Asian summer climate decadal variation

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Can the climate background of western North Pacific typhoon activity be predicted by climate model?

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chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第15期53卷 2392-2399页

作者： lang xianmei WANG HuiJun center for disastrous climate {3. and prediction & Nansen-Zhu International {3. center Institute of AtmosphericPhysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Based on the observation and reanalysis data through 1948―2004, the vertical shear of zonal wind, outgoing longwave radiation, and divergence fields in the lower and upper troposphere during summer are revealed to correlate significantly with the concurrent western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon fre-quency, and they therefore can be regarded as predictors for the WNP typhoon activity anomaly. After that, the 3.-year (1970―2003. ensemble hindcast experiments are performed by the nine-level atmos-pheric general circulation model developed at the institute of atmospheric physics Under the chinese academy of sciences (IAP9L-AGCM), aiming to investigate the numerical predictability of the summer vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field in the lower troposphere. It is found that the temporal correlation coefficients between the hindcast and observation are 0.70 and 0.62 for the vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field, respectively. This suggests that the model possesses a large potential skill for predicting the large-scale climate background closely related to the WNP typhoon activity, and the model is therefore capable of performing the real-time numerical {3. of the WNP typhoon activity anomaly to some extent.

关键词：西北太平洋台风频繁度 IAP9L-AGCM 可预测性

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A Review of Seasonal climate prediction research in{3.

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2015年第2期32卷 149-168页

作者： WANG Huijun FAN Ke SUN Jianqi LI Shuanglin LIN Zhaohui ZHOU Guangqing CHEN Lijuan lang xianmei LI Fang ZHU Yali CHEN Hong ZHENG Fei Nansen-Zhu International research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences National climate center China Meteorological Administration

The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate {3.s on various time scales. In china, efforts to predict the climate started in the 193. s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate {3. experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World climate research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate {3. research, provides an overview of these studies in china. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by chinese scientists. These studies in china mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate {3. is even more important for china in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South china.

关键词： seasonal prediction climate variability predictability

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大样本初始化十年际预测试验(CESM-DPLE)对东亚夏季气候预测的评估

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气象学报 2020年第3期78卷 379-390页

作者：姜大膀司东郎咸梅中国科学院大气物理研究所北京100029 中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心北京100101 中国科学院大学北京100049

基于气温和降水观测资料以及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)大气再分析资料,系统评估了大样本初始化十年际预测试验(CESM-DPLE)对1959-2016年东亚夏季气候预测的能力。结果表明,CESM-DPLE能较好地模拟东亚夏季气候... 详细信息

基于气温和降水观测资料以及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)大气再分析资料,系统评估了大样本初始化十年际预测试验(CESM-DPLE)对1959-2016年东亚夏季气候预测的能力。结果表明,CESM-DPLE能较好地模拟东亚夏季气候以及相关主要大气环流系统的基本态特征,在年际尺度上对东亚气温有很高的预测技巧但对降水几乎没有预测能力。CESM-DPLE再现了北大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)经由激发遥相关波列所引起的中高纬度大气环流、东亚夏季风和气候的异常。20世纪90年代末之后,北大西洋多年代际振荡由冷位相转为暖位相,遥相关波列位相调整,东亚受异常低压控制,东亚夏季风偏强,夏季气温偏高、降水偏多。总体上,尽管还存在着不足,但CESM-DPLE对东亚夏季温度年际变化以及与20世纪90年代末北大西洋多年代际振荡位相转变相联的东亚夏季气候年代际变化具备一定的预测能力,是目前研究和预测东亚气候变化的一套较好试验数据。

关键词：大样本初始化十年际预测试验气候预测东亚夏季气候十年际变化

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