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Use of routine HIV testing data for early detection of emerging HIV epidemics in high-risk subpopulations:A concept demonstration study

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2018年第1期3卷 373-384页

作者： Houssein H.Ayoub Susanne f.Awad laith J.Abu-Raddad Department of Mathematics Statisticsand PhysicsQatar UniversityDohaQatar Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group Weill Cornell Medicine-QatarCornell UniversityQatar Foundation-Education CityDohaQatar Department of Healthcare Policy and Research Weill Cornell MedicineCornell UniversityNew YorkUSA College of Health and Life Sciences Hamad Bin Khalifa UniversityDohaQatar

Introduction:HIV epidemics in hard-to-reach high-risk subpopulations are often discovered years after epidemic emergence in settings with poor surveillance *** hypothesis-generation modeling,we aimed to investigate and demonstrate the concept of using routine HIV testing data to identify and characterize hidden epidemics in high-risk *** also compared this approach to surveillance based on AIDS case ***:A deterministic mathematical model was developed to simulate an emerging HIV epidemic in a high-risk subpopulation.A stochastic Monte Carlo simulation was implemented on the total population to simulate the sampling process of generating routine HIV testing *** measures were estimated on the simulated epidemic and on the generated testing *** analyses were conducted on the ***:In the simulated epidemic,HIV prevalence saturated at 32%in the high-risk subpopulation and at 0.33%in the total *** epidemic started its emergingepidemic phase 28 years after infection introduction,and saturated 67 years after infection *** the simulated HIV testing sample,a significant time trend in prevalence was identified,and the generated metrics of epidemic emergence and saturation were similar to those of the simulated *** epidemic was identified 4.0(95%CI 3.4e4.6)years after epidemic emergence using routine HIV testing,but 29.7(95%CI 15.8 e52.1)years after emergence using AIDS case *** the sensitivity analyses,none of the sampling biases affected the conclusion of an emerging epidemic,but some affected the estimated epidemic growth ***:Routine HIV testing data provides a tool to identify and characterize hidden and emerging epidemics in high-risk *** approach can be specially useful in resource-limited settings,and can be applied alone,or along with other complementary data,to provide a meaningful characterization of emer

关键词： HIV High-risk subpopulation Surveillance Mathematical modeling Monte Carlo simulations Epidemiology Sexually transmitted infection

Potential for human immunodeficiency virus parenteral transmission in the Middle East and North Africa: An analysis using hepatitis C virus as a proxy biomarker

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2014年第36期20卷 12734-12752页

作者： Yousra A Mohamoud f DeWolfe Miller laith J Abu-Raddad Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group Weill Cornell Medical College - Qatar Cornell University Qatar Foundation - Education City Doha 24144 Qatar Department of Tropical Medicine Medical Microbiology and Pharmacology John A Burns School of Medicine University of Hawaii Honolulu HI 96813 United States Department of Healthcare Policy and Re-search Weill Cornell Medical College Cornell University New York NY 11213 United States Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center Seattle WA 98109United States

The Middle East and North Africa(MENA) region has endured several major events of infection parenteral transmission. Recent work has established the utility of using hepatitis C virus(HCV) as a proxy biomarker for assessing the epidemic potential for human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) parenteral transmission. In this review, we use data on the prevalence of HCV infection antibody(seroprevalence) among general population and high risk population groups to assess the potential for HIV parenteral transmission in MENA. Relatively low prevalence of HCV infection in the general population groups was reported in most MENA countries indicating that parenteral HIV transmission at endemic levels does not appear to be a cause for concern. Nonetheless, there could be opportunities for localized HIV outbreaks and transmission of other blood-borne infections in some settings such as healthcare facilities. Though there have been steady improvements in safety measures related to parenteral modes of transmission in the region, these improvements have not been uniform across all countries. More precautions, including infection control training programs, surveillance systems for nosocomial infections and wider coverage and evaluation of hepatitis B virus immunization programs need to be implemented to avoid the unnecessary spread of HIV, HCV, and other blood-borne pathogens along the parenteral modes of transmission.

关键词： Hepatitis C virus Human immunodeficiency virus Par

Estimation of Natural Radioactivity of Some Medicinal or Herbal Plants Used in Iraq

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Detection 2015年第1期3卷 1-7页

作者： laith A. Najam Nada f. Tafiq fouzey H. Kitah Physics Department College of Science University of Mosul Mosul Iraq Physics Department College of Science Al-Nahrain University Baghdad Iraq Ministry of Science and Technology Baghdad Iraq

Nine medicinal or herbal plants used in Iraq were analyzed to determine natural radioactivity. The radionuclides were determined by Gross alpha, beta and gamma spectrometry Proportional counter + NaI(Tl) detector type(XLB5) and gamma-ray spectroscopy with (HPGe) techniques. The activity concentration of 40K ranged from 124.1 Bq/kg in (Crust sample) to 88.3 Bq/kg in (Chamomile sample), for gross alpha ranged from (N.D.) in (flax sample) to 0.4 cpm in (Anise sample), while for beta ranged from 5.7 cpm in (flax sample) to 25.6 cpm in (Latency sample) and for gamma ranged from 0.6 cpm in (Thyme sample) to 5.10 cpm in (Coriander and flax samples).

关键词： Medicinal Plants Alpha Cross Natural Radioactivity Beta Cross Gamma Spectroscopy

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旋转弹箭气动导数与气动热仿真计算

计算机仿真 2014年第5期31卷 26-30页

作者：陈东阳 laith K.Abbas 芮筱亭南京理工大学发射动力学研究所江苏南京210094

研究弹箭气动特性优化问题,基于剪切应力传输(SST)k-ω湍流模型,分别对M910弹丸和旋转弹模型f4进行数值仿真。计算采用CfD和工程经验公式相结合的方法,得到了光弹M910和翼身组合体f4在不同攻角,不同旋转速度,不同马赫数下的气动导数分... 详细信息

研究弹箭气动特性优化问题,基于剪切应力传输(SST)k-ω湍流模型,分别对M910弹丸和旋转弹模型f4进行数值仿真。计算采用CfD和工程经验公式相结合的方法,得到了光弹M910和翼身组合体f4在不同攻角,不同旋转速度,不同马赫数下的气动导数分布。通过与实验数据比较分析,阻力系数,法向力系数,俯仰力矩系数导数,滚转阻尼系数误差均在工程误差范围内,验证了本文计算方法的准确性。同时,数值仿真得到旋转弹体绝热壁面温度分布云图和不同旋转速度、不同攻角的弹箭迎风面中心线上温度分布数据图。计算分析为旋转弹箭气动热弹性仿真提供有价值参考。

关键词：数值仿真气动热气动导数旋转

Observer Variability in BI-RADS Ultrasound features and Its Influence on Computer-Aided Diagnosis of Breast Masses

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Advances in Breast Cancer Research 2015年第1期4卷 1-8页

作者： laith R. Sultan Ghizlane Bouzghar Benjamin J. Levenback Nauroze A. faizi Santosh S. Venkatesh Emily f. Conant Chandra M. Sehgal Department of Radiology University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia USA Department of Electrical Engineering University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia USA

Objective: Computer classification of sonographic BI-RADS features can aid differentiation of the malignant and benign masses. However, the variability in the diagnosis due to the differences in the observed features between the observations is not known. The goal of this study is to measure the variation in sonographic features between multiple observations and determine the effect of features variation on computer-aided diagnosis of the breast masses. Materials and Methods: Ultrasound images of biopsy proven solid breast masses were analyzed in three independent observations for BI-RADS sonographic features. The BI-RADS features from each observation were used with Bayes classifier to determine probability of malignancy. The observer agreement in the sonographic features was measured by kappa coefficient and the difference in the diagnostic performances between observations was determined by the area under the ROC curve, Az, and interclass correlation coefficient. Results: While some features were repeatedly observed, κ = 0.95, other showed a significant variation, κ = 0.16. for all features, combined intra-observer agreement was substantial, κ = 0.77. The agreement, however, decreased steadily to 0.66 and 0.56 as time between the observations increased from 1 to 2 and 3 months, respectively. Despite the variation in features between observations the probabilities of malignancy estimates from Bayes classifier were robust and consistently yielded same level of diagnostic performance, Az was 0.772-0.817 for sonographic features alone and 0.828-0.849 for sonographic features and age combined. The difference in the performance, ΔAz, between the observations for the two groups was small (0.003-0.044) and was not statistically significant (p fficient for the observations was 0.822 (CI: 0.787-0.853) for BI-RADS sonographic features alone and for those combined with age was 0.833 (CI: 0.800-0.862). Conclusion: Despite the differences in

关键词： Breast Imaging Breast Cancer Observer Variability Computer-Aided Diagnosis