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Science Bulletin 2024年第19期69卷 3106-3114页

作者： Feng Chen Tao Wang Xiaoen Zhao jan esper Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Ulf Büntgen Hans W.Linderholm David Meko Hongna Xu Weipeng Yue Shijie Wang Yujiang Yuan Jingyun Zheng Wei Pan Fidel Roig Martín Hadad Mao Hu Jiachang Wei Fahu Chen Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security Institute of International Rivers and Eco-SecurityYunnan UniversityKunming 650504China Southwest United Graduate School Kunming 650504China Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg UniversityMainz 55099Germany Global Change Research Institute(CzechGlobe) Czech Academy of SciencesBrno 60300Czech Republic Department of History Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study LinneanumUppsala 75238Sweden Department of Geography University of CambridgeCambridge CB23ENUK Department of Geography Faculty of ScienceMasaryk UniversityBrno 61137Czech Republic Swiss Federal Research Institute(WSL) Birmensdorf 8903Switzerland Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of ArizonaTucson AZ 85721USA Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Digital Human Technology R&D and Application of Yunnan Provincial Department of Education Yunnan UniversityKunming 650504China Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental IANIGLA-CCT CONICET-Universidad Nacional de CuyoMendoza 5500Argentina Hémera Centro de Observación de La Tierra Escuela de Ingeniería ForestalFacultad de CienciasUniversidad MayorHuechuraba 85

Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine ***,the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains ***,we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from1576 to 1593 CE and from 1628 to 1644 CE in northern China,which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of *** analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim,which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China,but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic *** finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Ni?a-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China,as well as extensive monsoon regions in the *** teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

关键词： Paleoclimate Beijing Precipitation reconstruction Climate-society interactions Tree rings Ming Dynasty

新疆天山西部三个云杉上树线树轮最大密度年表的研制、相关性及其气候信号分析

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干旱区地理 2008年第4期31卷 560-566页

作者：袁玉江 esper jan 魏文寿 Nievergelt Danie Verstege Anne 喻树龙张瑞波中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室新疆乌鲁木齐830002 瑞士联邦森林、雪、景观研究院瑞士苏黎世比尔门斯多夫8903

针对新疆天山西部伊犁、博尔塔拉蒙古自治区州三大山体北坡云杉上树线树木年轮最大密度资料,采用区域曲线、负指数曲线、样条函数三种不同生长去趋势方法,研制树轮最大密度年表,分析不同采点和树轮去趋势方法对树轮最大密度年表在不同... 详细信息

针对新疆天山西部伊犁、博尔塔拉蒙古自治区州三大山体北坡云杉上树线树木年轮最大密度资料,采用区域曲线、负指数曲线、样条函数三种不同生长去趋势方法,研制树轮最大密度年表,分析不同采点和树轮去趋势方法对树轮最大密度年表在不同频域的相关性及气候信号的影响发现:①三个采点间的最大树轮密度变化,在高频变化方面最为相似,低频变化存在着较大差异;②天山西部山脉北坡上树线的树轮最大密度年表对年表研制的三种不同去趋势方法不敏感,而采点间的距离和是否位于同一气候区是影响上树线树轮最大密度年表间相关性的重要因子;③天山西部山脉北坡上树线的树轮最大密度年表对当年的温度具有显著的相关性,年降水量越多的山区,其上树线最大密度年表对温度的相关性越好,且显著相关平均温度涉及的月数也不断增多。

关键词：新疆天山西部云杉树轮最大密度不同采点不同去趋势方法气候信号

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采点和去趋势方法对新疆天山西部云杉上树线树轮宽度年表相关性及其气候信号的影响

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采点和去趋势方法对新疆天山西部云杉上树线树轮宽度年表相关性及...

采点和去趋势方法对天山西部云杉上树线树轮宽度年表相关性及其气候信号的影响

第26届中国气象学会年会气候变化分会场

作者：袁玉江魏文寿 esper jan 喻树龙张瑞波中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室瑞士联邦森林、雪、景观研究院

针对新疆天山西部伊犁、博州三大山体北坡云杉上树线树木年轮资料,采用区域曲线、负指数曲线、样条函数三种不同生长去趋势方法,研制树轮宽度年表,分析不同采点和树轮去趋势方法对树轮宽度年表在不同频域的相关性及气候信号的影响发现:... 详细信息

针对新疆天山西部伊犁、博州三大山体北坡云杉上树线树木年轮资料,采用区域曲线、负指数曲线、样条函数三种不同生长去趋势方法,研制树轮宽度年表,分析不同采点和树轮去趋势方法对树轮宽度年表在不同频域的相关性及气候信号的影响发现:⑴采点间的距离和是否位于同一气候区是影响云杉上树线树轮宽度年表间相关性的首要因子。三个采点间的树轮宽度变化,在高频变化方面最为相似,低频变化存在着较大差异,表明它们在揭示和重建大范围的高频气候变化方面可能具有较大的应用潜力。⑵三种不同去趋势方法对天山西部山脉北坡上树线的云杉树轮宽度年表的研制具有一定影响,负指数和样条函数去趋势方法研制的树轮年表较为相似,而区域曲线去趋势方法研制的树轮宽度年表中则可保留较多的轮宽低频变化信息。⑶降水是天山西部云杉上树线的树轮宽度生长的主要限制因子,且树轮宽度生长对降水的响应具有显著的滞后性。⑷在天山西部的云杉上树线采点,使用区域曲线去趋势方法有利于在树轮宽度年表中保留较多的与水分有关的气候信息。

关键词：新疆天山西部云杉树轮宽度不同采点不同去趋势方法气候信号

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中国沙漠 2008年第5期28卷 809-814页

作者：袁玉江魏文寿 esperjan 喻树龙张瑞波中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所/中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室新疆乌鲁木齐830002 瑞士联邦森林雪景观研究院

针对新疆天山西部伊犁、博州三大山体北坡云杉上树线树木年轮资料,采用区域曲线、负指数曲线、样条函数三种不同生长去趋势方法,研制树轮宽度年表,分析不同采点和树轮去趋势方法对树轮宽度年表在不同频域的相关性及气候信号的影响发现:①采点间的距离和是否位于同一气候区是影响云杉上树线树轮宽度年表间相关性的首要因子。三个采点间的树轮宽度变化,在高频变化方面最为相似,低频变化存在着较大差异,表明它们在揭示和重建大范围的高频气候变化方面可能具有较大的应用潜力。②三种不同去趋势方法对天山西部山脉北坡上树线的云杉树轮宽度年表的研制具有一定影响,负指数和样条函数去趋势方法研制的树轮年表较为相似,而区域曲线去趋势方法研制的树轮宽度年表中则可保留较多的轮宽低频变化信息。③降水是天山西部云杉上树线的树轮宽度生长的主要限制因子,且树轮宽度生长对降水的响应具有显著的滞后性。④在天山西部的云杉上树线采点,使用区域曲线去趋势方法有利于在树轮宽度年表中保留较多的与水分有关的气候信息。

关键词：新疆天山西部云杉树轮宽度不同采点不同去趋势方法气候信号

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Global wood anatomical perspective on the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) in the mid-6th century CE

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Science Bulletin 2022年第22期67卷 2336-2344页

作者： Ulf Büntgen Alan Crivellaro Dominique Arseneault Mike Baillie David Barclay Mauro Bernabei Jarno Bontadi Gretel Boswijk David Brown Duncan A.Christie Olga V.Churakova Edward R.Cook Rosanne D’Arrigo Nicole Davi jan esper Patrick Fonti Ciara Greaves Rashit M.Hantemirov Malcolm K.Hughes Alexander V.Kirdyanov Paul J.Krusic Carlos Le Quesne Fredrik C.Ljungqvist Michael Mc.Cormick Vladimir S.Myglan Kurt Nicolussi Clive Oppenheimer Jonathan Palmer Chun Qin Frederick Reinig Matthew Salzer Markus Stoffel Max Torbenson Mirek Trnka Ricardo Villalba Nick Wiesenberg Greg Wiles Bao Yang Alma Piermattei Department of Geography University of CambridgeCambridge CB23ENUK Swiss Federal Research Institute(WSL) Birmensdorf 8903Switzerland Global Change Research Centre(CzechGlobe) Brno 60300Czech Republic Department of Geography Faculty of ScienceMasaryk UniversityBrno 61300Czech Republic Forest Biometrics Laboratory Faculty of Forestry“Stefan cel Mare”University of SuceavaSuceava 720229Romania Department of Biology Chemistry and GeographyUniversity of Quebec in RimouskiRimouski Qc.G5L 3A1Canada Archaeology&Palaeoecology School of Natural and Built EnvironmentQueen’s University BelfastBelfast BT71NNUK Department of Geology State University of New York at CortlandCortland NY 13045USA CNR-IBE Institute of BioEconomyNational Research CouncilTrento 38121Italy School of Environment The University of AucklandAuckland 1010New Zealand Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global Universidad Austral de ChileValdivia 509000Chile Center for Climate and Resilience Research(CR) Santiago 8370449Chile Cape Horn International Center(CHIC) Punta Arenas 6200000Chile Institute of Ecology and Geography Siberian Federal UniversityKrasnoyarsk 660041Russia Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisades NY 10964USA Department of Environmental Science William Paterson UniversityWayne NJ 07470USA Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg UniversityMainz 55099Germany Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology Ural BranchRussian Academy of SciencesYekaterinburg 620144Russia Ural Institute of Humanities Ural Federal UniversityYekaterinburg 620002Russia Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of ArizonaTucson AZ 85721USA Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS Krasnoyarsk 660036Russia Department of Physical Geography Bolin Centre for Climate ResearchStockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Department of History Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study

Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89Blue Rings(lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings(cell deformation and collapse), and 93Light Rings(reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.

关键词： Blue Rings Climate extremes Dendrochronology Late Antiquity Tree rings Volcanic eruptions

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环太平洋特大干旱导致公元1644年明朝首都的陷落（英文）

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Science Bulletin 2024年第19期 3106-3114页

作者：陈峰王涛赵晓恩 jan esper Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Ulf Büntgen Hans W.Linderholm David Meko 许红娜岳伟鹏王世杰袁玉江郑景云潘威 Fidel Roig Martín Hadad 胡茂魏家昌陈发虎 Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security Yunnan University Southwest United Graduate School Regional Climate Group Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg University Global Change Research Institute (Czech Globe) Czech Academy of Sciences Department of History Stockholm University Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study Linneanum Department of Geography University of Cambridge Department of Geography Faculty of Science Masaryk University Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of Arizona Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research Institute of Desert Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Digital Human Technology R&D and Application of Yunnan Provincial Department of Education Yunnan University Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental IANIGLA-CCT CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo Hémera Centro de Observación de La Tierra Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal Facultad de Ciencias Universidad Mayor Laboratorio de Dendrocronología de Zonas áridas CIGEOBIO (CONICET-UNSJ) Gabinete de Geología Ambiental (INGEO-UNSJ) ALPHA State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources (TPESER) Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences MOE Key Laboratory of We

Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period. However, the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains unclear. Here, we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from1576 to 1593 CE and from 1628 to 1644 CE in northern China, which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of Beijing. Our analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim, which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China, but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic pressures. This finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Ni?a-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China,as well as extensive monsoon regions in the Americas. These teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

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