环太平洋特大干旱导致公元1644年明朝首都的陷落（英文）

作     者：陈峰 王涛 赵晓恩 Jan Esper Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Ulf Büntgen Hans W.Linderholm David Meko 许红娜 岳伟鹏 王世杰 袁玉江 郑景云 潘威 Fidel Roig Martín Hadad 胡茂 魏家昌 陈发虎 

作者机构：Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security Yunnan University Southwest United Graduate School Regional Climate Group Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg University Global Change Research Institute (Czech Globe) Czech Academy of Sciences Department of History Stockholm University Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study Linneanum Department of Geography University of Cambridge Department of Geography Faculty of Science Masaryk University Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of Arizona Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research Institute of Desert Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Digital Human Technology R&D and Application of Yunnan Provincial Department of Education Yunnan University Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental IANIGLA-CCT CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo Hémera Centro de Observación de La Tierra Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal Facultad de Ciencias Universidad Mayor Laboratorio de Dendrocronología de Zonas áridas CIGEOBIO (CONICET-UNSJ) Gabinete de Geología Ambiental (INGEO-UNSJ) ALPHA State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources (TPESER) Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences MOE Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental System Lanzhou University 

出 版 物：《Science Bulletin》 (科学通报(英文版))

年 卷 期：2024年第19期

页      面：3106-3114页

核心收录：

学科分类：060204[历史学-中国古代史] 06[历史学] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0602[历史学-中国史] 

基　　金：supported by the Basic Science Center for Tibetan Plateau Earth System (BSCTPES, 41988101) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (32061123008) Ulf Büntgen and Jan Esper were supported by the ERC Advanced Grant Monostar (Ad G 882727) the Czech Science Foundation (23-08049S, HYDRO8) Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist was supported by the Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsr?det, 2018-01272) the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation (MMW 20220114) 

摘      要：Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period. However, the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains unclear. Here, we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from1576 to 1593 CE and from 1628 to 1644 CE in northern China, which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of Beijing. Our analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim, which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China, but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic pressures. This finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Ni?a-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China,as well as extensive monsoon regions in the Americas. These teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.