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A high resolution simulation of climate change over China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2011年第3期54卷 462-472页

作者： GAO XueJie SHI Ying filippo giorgi The Laboratory of Climate Study National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste Italy

Multi-decadal high resolution climate change simulations over East Asia were performed by using The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3), nested within the NASA/NCAR global model FvGCM/CCM3. Two sets of simulations were conducted at 20-km grid spacings, one for present day (1961-1990) and one for the future climate (2071-2100, IPCC A2 scenario). Simulations of present climate conditions over China by RegCM3 and FvGCM were compared against observations to assess the model performance. Results showed that both models repro- duced the observed spatial structure of 500 hPa height, surface air temperature and precipitation. Compared with FvGCM, RegCM3 provided increasing spatial detail of surface variables. Furthermore, RegCM3 improved the simulation of monsoon precipitation over the region. Changes in the mean temperature and precipitation were analyzed and compared between the two models. Significant warming in the end of the 21st century was simulated by both models in December-January-February (DJF), June-July-August (JJA), and the annual mean. In DJF, greater warming was simulated by FvGCM over Northeast and Northwest China, as well as the Tibetan Plateau, compared with RegCM. In JJA, RegCM3 simulated greater warming over northern China, Inner Mongolia, Northwest China, and the Tibetan Plateau. Simulated changes in DJF precipitation showed similar spatial patterns between the two models. In JJA, while FvGCM projected a prevailing increase of monsoon precipitation over China, which is in agreement with other global models, RegCM3 projected extended areas of decreased precipitation. Changes in the variability for annual mean temperature and precipitation also are presented.

关键词： climate change regional climate model China

Simulation and Projection of Monso on Rainfall and Rain Patterns over Eastern China under Global Warming by RegCM3

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2009年第5期2卷 308-313页

作者： filippo giorgi International Centre for Theoretical Physics TriesteItaly

The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3).Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate *** show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rainfall distribution;however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well *** the rain pattern classifications,RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin).Under future climate conditions,RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1,more of Pattern 2,and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River).These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future,while rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified *** exist in the present study are also discussed.

关键词： climate change seasonal forecast monsoon rain patterns regional climate model eastern China

Regional earth system modeling：review and future directions

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2018年第2期11卷 189-197页

作者： filippo giorgi GAO Xue-Jie The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics TriesteItaly Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina

The authors review recent advances in the development of coupled Regional Earth System Models （RESMs）,a field that is still in its early *** date,coupled regional atmosphere-ocean-sea ice,atmosphere-aerosol and atmosphere-biosphere models have been developed,but they have been applied onlyto limited regional *** more work is thus needed to assess their transferability to a wide range of *** challenges in regional climate modeling are identified,including the development of fully coupled RESMs encompassing not only atmosphere,ocean,cryosphere,biosphere,chemosphere,but also the human component in a fully interactive way.

关键词： Regional climate model regional earth system model atmosphere-ocean coupling atmosphere-aerosolcoupling

Projected changes in Köppen-Trewartha climate zones under 1.5-4℃global warming targets over mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia using an ensemble of RegCM4 simulations

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 185-196页

作者： Jie WU Xue-Jie GAO Xian-Bing TANG filippo giorgi School of Geography and Environmental Engineering Gannan Normal UniversityGanzhou 341000China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste 34100Italy

Mid-high latitude Northern Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive areas to global warming,but relatively less studied *** used an ensemble of a regional climate model(RegCM4)projections to assess future changes in surface air temperature,precipitation and Köppen-Trewartha(K-T)climate types in Northern Asia under the 1.5-4℃global warming ***4 is driven by five CMIP5 global models over an East Asia domain at a grid spacing of 25 *** of the present day(1986-2005)simulations shows that the ensembles of RegCM4(ensR)and driving GCMs(ensG)reproduce the major characters of the observed temperature,precipitation and K-T climate zones reasonably *** and more realistic spatial detail is found in RegCM4 compared to the driving GCMs.A general warming and overall increases in precipitation are projected over the region,with these changes being more pronounced at higher warming *** projected warming by ensR shows different spatial patterns,and is in general lower,compared to ensG in most months of the year,while the percentage increases of precipitation are maximum during the cold *** future changes in K-T climate zones are characterized by a substantial expansion of Dc(temperature oceanic)and retreat of Ec(sub-arctic continental)over the region,reaching∼20%under the 4℃warming *** most notable change in climate types in ensR is found over Japan(∼60%),followed by Southern Siberia,Mongolia,and the Korean Peninsula(∼40%).The largest change in the K-T climate types is found when increasing from 2 to 3℃.The results will help to better assess the impacts of climate change and in implementation of appropriate adaptation measures over the region.

关键词： Mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia Köppen climate zones Global warming targets Regional climate model

Projection of the Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the Western North Pacific Based on Multi-RegCM4 Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 284-303页

作者： Jie WU Xuejie GAO Yingmo ZHU Ying SHI filippo giorgi School of Geography and Environmental Engineering Gannan Normal UniversityGanzhou 341000China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650504China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste 34100Italy

Future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21 st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global *** RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986-2005,although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity.A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also *** the end of the 21st century(2079-98),the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by16%and 10%,*** increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations,with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of *** TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986-2005,with a large increase in the frequency of strong *** addition,more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast,with an increase of~18%over the whole Chinese territory.

关键词： regional climate model RegCM4 tropical cyclone western North Pacific

Comparison of convective parameterizations in RegCM4 experiments over China with CLM as the land surface model

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2016年第4期9卷 246-254页

作者： GAO Xue-Jie SHI Ying filippo giorgi Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics

in the latest version of the international Centre for Theoretical Physics＇ regional climate model, RegCM4, CLM was introduced as a new land surface scheme. The performance over China of RegCM4-CLM with different convection schemes is analyzed in this study, based on a series of short- term *** model is driven by ERA-Interim data at a grid spacing of 25 *** convection schemes employed are： Emanuel; Grell; Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean; Grell over land and Emanuel over ocean; and Tiedtke. The simulated mean surface air temperature and precipitation in December-February-January and June-July-August are compared against observation. In general, better performance of Emanuel is found both for temperature and precipitation, and in both seasons. Thus, the model physics of CLM and Emanuel for the land surface processes and convection, respectively, are recommended for further application of RegCM4 over the China region. The de^ciencies that remain in the model arealso outlined and discussed.

关键词： Regional climate model China RegCM4 temperatureprecipitation

Climate Change over China in the 21st Century as Simulated by BCC_CSM1.1-RegCM4.0

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 381-386页

作者： GAO Xue-Jie WANG Mei-Li filippo giorgi The Laboratory of Climate Study National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics

Driven by the global model,Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1),climate change over China in the 21st century is simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM4.0)under the new emission scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways—RCP4.5 and *** is based on a period of transient simulations from 1950 to2099,with a grid spacing of 50 *** present paper focuses on the annual mean temperature and precipitation in China over this period,with emphasis on their future *** of model performance reveals marked improvement of the RegCM4.0 model in reproducing present day temperature and precipitation relative to the driving BCC_CSM1.1 *** warming is simulated by both BCC_CSM1.1 and RegCM4.0,however,spatial distribution and magnitude differ between the *** high emission scenario RCP8.5 results in greater warming compared to *** two models project different precipitation changes,characterized by a general increase in the BCC_CSM1.1,and broader areas with decrease in the RegCM4.0 simulations.

关键词： climate change regional climate model RCP scenarios China

Agricultural Land Use Effects on Climate over China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第2期24卷 215-224页

作者：张冬峰高学杰石英 giorgi filippo 董文杰 National Climate Center The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics College of Global Change and Earth System Beijing Normal University

The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics（ICTP） Regional Climate Model version 3（RegCM3） is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change related to agriculture over *** model is driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 40-yr Re-Analysis（ERA40） *** sets of experiments for 15 yr（1987-2001） are conducted,one with the potential vegetation cover and the other the agricultural land use（AG）.The results show that the AG effects on temperature are weak over northern China while in southern China a significant cooling is found in both winter（DecemberJanuary-February） and summer（June-July-August）.The mean cooling in the sub-regions of South China（SC） in winter and the sub-regions of Southeast（SE） China in summer are found to be the greatest,up to 0.5°and 0.8 ℃ ,*** general,the change of AG leads to a decrease of annual mean temperature by 0.5-1 ℃ in southern *** change of precipitation in western China and a decrease of precipitation in eastern China are simulated in winter,with the maximum reduction reaching-7.5% over SE.A general decrease of precipitation over northern China and an increase over southern China are simulated in summer,in particular over SE where the increase of precipitation can be up to 7.3%.The AG effects on temperature and precipitation show strong interannual *** of the climate effects between AG and the present-day land use（LU） is also *** southern China,the ratio of temperature（precipitation） changes caused by AG and LU is greater than（closer to） the ratio of the number of grid cells with changed vegetation cover due to AG and LU variations.

关键词： agricultural land use regional climate model regional climate change

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第4期35卷 376-388页

作者： Ying XU Xuejie GAO filippo giorgi Botao ZHOU Ying SHI Jie WU Yongxiang ZHANG National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics PO Box 586 Trieste 34100 Italy CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies ( LCPS/CMA-NJU) Nanjing 210023 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over China's Mainland are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed： TXx and TNn （the annual maximum and minimum of daily annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation） and CDD maximum and minimum surface temperature）, RX5day （the （maximum annual number of consecutive dry days）. After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to 〈 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

关键词： CMIP5 extremes return values and periods China