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Opposing Trends of Winter Cold Extremes over Eastern Eurasia and North America under Recent Arctic Warming

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第12期37卷 1417-1434页

作者： Shuangmei MA congwen zhu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Climate System Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

Under recent Arctic warming,boreal winters have witnessed severe cold surges over both Eurasia and North America,bringing about serious social and economic ***,we investigated the changes in daily surface air temperature(SAT)variability during the rapid Arctic warming period of 1988/89–2015/16,and found the daily SAT variance,mainly contributed by the sub-seasonal component,shows an increasing and decreasing trend over eastern Eurasia and North America,*** cold extremes(defined as days with daily SAT anomalies below 1.5 standard deviations)dominated the increase of the daily SAT variability over eastern Eurasia,while decreasing cold extremes dominated the decrease of the daily SAT variability over North *** circulation regime of cold extremes over eastern Eurasia(North America)is characterized by an enhanced high-pressure ridge over the Urals(Alaska)and surface Siberian(Canadian)*** data analyses and model simulations show the recent strengthening of the high-pressure ridge over the Urals was associated with warming of the Barents–Kara seas in the Arctic region,while the high-pressure ridge over Alaska was influenced by the offset effect of Arctic warming over the East Siberian–Chukchi seas and the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)–like sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies over the North *** transition of the PDO-like SST anomalies from a positive to negative phase cancelled the impact of Arctic warming,reduced the occurrence of extreme cold days,and possibly resulted in the decreasing trend of daily SAT variability in North *** multi-ensemble simulations of climate models confirmed the regional Arctic warming as the driver of the increasing SAT variance over eastern Eurasia and North America and the overwhelming effect of SST forcing on the decreasing SAT variance over North ***,the regional response of winter cold extremes at midlatitudes to the Arctic warming could be different due to the dis

关键词： daily surface air temperature variability extreme cold days Arctic warming eastern Eurasia North America

Combined Impacts of Warm Central Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Anthropogenic Warming on the 2019 Severe Drought in East China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第11期37卷 1149-1163页

作者： Shuangmei MA congwen zhu Juan LIU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LASW)and Institute of Climate System Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Meteorological Service Center of Zhejiang Hangzhou 310016China

A severe drought occurred in East China(EC)from August to October 2019 against a background of long-term significant warming and caused widespread impacts on agriculture and society,emphasizing the urgent need to understand the mechanism responsible for this drought and its linkage to global *** results show that the warm central equatorial Pacific(CEP)sea surface temperature(SST)and anthropogenic warming were possibly responsible for this drought *** warm CEP SST anomaly resulted in an anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific,where enhanced northerly winds in the northwestern sector led to decreased water vapor transport from the South China Sea and enhanced descending air motion,preventing local convection and favoring a precipitation deficiency over *** simulations in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project confirmed the physical connection between the warm CEP SST anomaly and the drought in *** extremely warm CEP SST from August to October 2019,which was largely the result of natural internal variability,played a crucial role in the simultaneous severe drought in *** model simulations showed that anthropogenic warming has greatly increased the frequency of extreme droughts in *** indicated an approximate twofold increase in extremely low rainfall events,high temperature events,and concurrently dry and hot events analogous to the event in ***,the persistent severe drought over EC in 2019 can be attributed to the combined impacts of warm CEP SST and anthropogenic warming.

关键词： drought East China central equatorial Pacific SST global warming model simulations

Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Niña in the Past Decade

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第1期38卷 147-155页

作者： Ning JIANG congwen zhu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Climate System Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

It has been suggested that a warm(cold)ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late(early)onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)in *** results show this positive relationship,which is mainly determined by their phase correlation,has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011,due to the disturbance of cold tongue(CT)La Niña *** from its canonical counterpart,a CT La Niña event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical *** to the increased Indian−western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Niña events,empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.

关键词： monsoon onset SCSSM ENSO cold tongue La Niña seasonal forecast

The Natural Oscillation of Two Types of ENSO Events Based on Analyses of CMIP5 Model Control Runs

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第4期31卷 801-813页

作者： XU Kang SU Jingzhi zhu congwen State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Climate Systems Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

The eastern-and central-Pacific El Ni（n）o-Southem Oscillation （EP-and CP-ENSO） have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean,and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation,*** the present study,we defined the EP-and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition （SVD） between SST and sea level pressure （SLP） anomalous *** evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5）.The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode,but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO *** analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP-and CP-ENSO,*** there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs,such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing.

关键词： EP-and CP-ENSO CMIP5 interannual/decadal oscillation natural variability

How would global-mean temperature change in the 21st century?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第19期55卷 1963-1967页

作者： QIAN WeiHong LU Bo zhu congwen Monsoon and Environment Research Group School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China Institute of Climate System Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

The time series of HadCRUT3 global-mean surface air temperature(GSAT) anomaly,Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) index,and the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) were utilized,and their long-term trends and multiple time-scale periodic oscillations were explored in this study.A long-term trend with a warming rate about 0.44°C /century during 1850-2008,two cool floors occurred respectively around 1910 and during 1950-1970,and three warm flats happened in the 1870s,1940s and since the year 1998 were found in the *** this duration,the variability of GSAT can be well reconstructed by the quasi-21-year,the quasi-65-year,and century-scale *** recent decadal warm flat is caused by their positive phase overlapping from these three *** maximum rising temperature reached 0.26°C was simulated in 2004 by the three *** quasi-21-year and the quasi-65-year oscillations were possibly caused by solar radiation and internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere ***,an outlook of GSAT for the 21st century was made based on the long-term trend and these three *** was expected that a cool floor and a warm flat of the GSAT would appear in the 2030s and 2060s,***,the highest warming range is predicted about 0.6°C,it is less than the threshold 2°C and IPCC projection.

关键词：平均温度太平洋年代际振荡大气系统气温上升赤道太平洋多时间尺度时间序列海表温度

Onset of East Asian subtropical summer monsoon and rainy season in China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2011年第12期54卷 1845-1853页

作者： zhu congwen ZHOU XiuJi ZHAO Ping CHEN LongXun HE JinHai Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National Information Center Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Nanjing University oflnformation Science ＆ Technology Nanjing 210044 China

Here we use harmonic analyses to examine seasonal variations of China land rainfall, low-level winds, and atmospheric heating over East Asia during spring to summer and the associated subtropical summer monsoon activities. Our results indicate that the South China spring rainfall (SCSR) in March is the prophase of East Asian sub-tropical summer monsoon (EASSM), and the onset of EASSM and China summer rainy season starts in early April, characterized by the enhanced rainfall in South China and the seasonal reverse of zonal land-sea thermal contrast in sub-tropical East Asia. The EASSM onset is earlier than that of South China Sea summer monsoon, and it is active in east of 100?E and north of 20?N. Our analyses suggest that the subsequent heating appears over India-China Peninsula in March and South China in April and causes the low-level atmospheric warming and the zonal land-sea thermal contrast seasonal reverse in East Asian subtropics. The atmospheric heating over South China is the main force to drive the southwesterly winds, updrafts and strengthen the summer precipitation in South China.

关键词： seasonal cycle East Asian sub-tropical summer monsoon China summer rainy season onset

Diversity of the Coupling Wheels in the East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Interannual Time Scale: Challenge of Summer Rainfall Forecasting in China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第4期38卷 546-554页

作者： congwen zhu Boqi LIU Kang XU Ning JIANG Kai LIU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Climate SystemChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China National Marine Environmental Forecast Center Beijing 100081China

Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the interaction between the Mongolian cyclone over North Asia and the South Asian high(SAH) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau at 200 hPa. The second mode presents the coupling between the anomalous low-level western Pacific anticyclone and upperlevel SAH via the meridional flow over Southeast Asia. These two modes are responsible for the summer rainfall anomalies over China in 24 and 7 out of 37 years, respectively. However, the dominant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean fail to account for the first coupling wheel's interannual variability, illustrating the challenges in forecasting summer rainfall over China.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon coupling circulation modes summer rainfall anomalies China

The Enhancement of the East Asian Summer Monsoon over Northeast Asia over the Most Recent Two Decades

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第12期41卷 2354-2366,I0002-I0004页

作者： Song JIANG Shuangmei MA congwen zhu Boqi LIU Ting WANG Wanyi SUN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LASW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The East Asian summer monsoon in Northeast Asia(NEA)has experienced an increase in summer rainfall and a delayed end to the rainy season after 2000,suggesting a trend of *** on the data analyses spanning 1979-2022,our results show that the increased rainfall amounts are associated with a more pronounced Mongolian cyclone(MC)in July−August,a manifestation of a portion of the Eurasian barotropic Rossby wave *** surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic(NA)regulate this wave train,with SST increases leading to its *** independently,a delayed end to the rainy season in September is related to an enhanced anticyclone over the Kuril Islands(ACKI)in the Russian Far *** anticyclone originates in the Arctic region,possibly induced by the loss of sea ice in the East Siberian Sea,a condition that can be detected two months in *** stronger MC and ACKI jointly contribute to the observed enhancement in the East Asian summer monsoon in NEA since 2000 by facilitating ascending motion and moisture ***,the SST anomaly in the NA,which is responsible for the intensified rainfall in the rainy season in NEA,coupled with the sea ice conditions in the East Siberian Sea,provides a potential prediction source for the retreat of the rainy season.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon rainfall over Northeast Asia North Atlantic SST sea ice loss in the East Siberian Sea

Evaluation and projection of marine heatwaves in the South China Sea: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第7期43卷 15-25页

作者： Kai Liu Kang Xu Tongxin Han congwen zhu Nina Li Anboyu Guo Xiaolu Huang National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory Huhhot 010051China

This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 *** demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best *** reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature *** various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and *** is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after ***,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future ***,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP *** the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter *** contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 ***,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state.

关键词： marine heatwaves South China Sea global warming future projections CMIP6