Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Niña in the Past Decade

作     者：Ning JIANG Congwen ZHU Ning JIANG;Congwen ZHU

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Climate SystemChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第38卷第1期

页      面：147-155页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：This work was jointly sponsored by the National Key R&D Program(Grant No.2018YFC1505904) the National Science Natural Foundation of China(Grant No.41830969) the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(Grant Nos.2018Z006 and 2018Y003) the scientific development foundation of CAMS(2020KJ012) 

主　　题：monsoon onset SCSSM ENSO cold tongue La Niña seasonal forecast 

摘      要：It has been suggested that a warm(cold)ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late(early)onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)in *** results show this positive relationship,which is mainly determined by their phase correlation,has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011,due to the disturbance of cold tongue(CT)La Niña *** from its canonical counterpart,a CT La Niña event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical *** to the increased Indian−western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Niña events,empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.