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Seasonal Prediction of Boreal Winter Rainfall over the Western Maritime Continent during ENSO

Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 294-303页

作者： chih-pei chang Tim LI Song YANG Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate SchoolMontereyCA 93943USA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of HawaiiHonoluluHI 96822USA School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China

Since the beginning of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Climate Outlook Forum(ASEANCOF)in 2013,the most difficult challenge has been the rainfall forecast in boreal *** is the Maritime Continent monsoon season during which rainfall reaches maximum in the annual *** forecast difficulty arises in spite of the general notion that seasonal predictability of the Maritime Continent rainfall may be higher than most places because of the strong and robust influences of *** lower predictability is consistent with the lower correlation between ENSO and western Maritime Continent rainfall that reaches minimum during the boreal winter *** theories have been proposed to explain this low *** this paper,we review the research on ENSO–Maritime Continent rainfall relationship and show that the main cause of the forecast difficulty is the wind–terrain interaction involving the Sumatran and Malay Peninsula mountains,rather than the effect of sea surface temperature(SST).The wind–terrain interaction due to the low-level regional scale anomalous horizontal circulation offsets the anomalous Walker circulation during both El Ni?o and La Ni?*** net result of these two opposing responses to ENSO is a lower local *** propose to call this low-predictability region the WIMP(Western Indonesia–Malay Peninsula)region both for its geographical location and its special characteristic of causing difficulties for forecasters to make a confident forecast for the boreal *** result suggests that climate models lack skills in forecasting rainfall in this region because their predictability depends strongly on SST.

关键词： seasonal forecast Maritime Continent ENSO monsoon rainfall wind-terrain interaction

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Theories on Formation of an Anomalous Anticyclone in Western North Pacific during El Nino:A Review

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第6期31卷 987-1006页

作者： Tim LI Bin WANG Bo WU Tianjun ZHOU chih-pei chang Renhe ZHANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822USA Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Naval Postgraduate School MontereyCA 93943USA Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China

The western Noah Pacific anomalous anticyclone （WNPAC） is an important atmospheric circulation system that conveys El Nifio impact on East Asian climate. In this review paper, various theories on the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC, including warm pool atmosphere-ocean interaction, Indian Ocean capacitor, a combination mode that emphasizes nonlinear interaction between ENSO and annual cycle, moist enthalpy advecfion/Rossby wave modulation, and central Pacific SST forcing, are discussed. It is concluded that local atmosphere-ocean interaction and moist enthalpy advection/Rossby wave modulation mechanisms are essential for the initial development and maintenance of the WNPAC during El Nifio mature winter and subsequent spring. The Indian Ocean capacitor mechanism does not contribute to the earlier development but helps maintain the WNPAC in El Nifio decaying summer. The cold SST anomaly in the western North Pacific, although damped in the summer, also plays a role. An inter- basin atmosphere-ocean interaction across the Indo-Pacific warm pool emerges as a new mechanism in summer. In addition, the central Pacific cold SST anomaly may induce the WNPAC during rapid El Nifio decaying/La Nina developing or La Nifia persisting summer. The near-annual periods predicted by the combination mode theory are hardly detected from observations and thus do not contribute to the formation of the WNPAC. The tropical Atlantic may have a capacitor effect similar to the tropical Indian Ocean.

关键词： western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone El Ni?o atmosphere–ocean interaction ENSO sea surface temperature Indian Ocean capacitor

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Science and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall

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Science Bulletin 2019年第21期64卷 1557-1561页

作者： Yali Luo Liye Li Richard HJohnson chih-pei chang Lianshou Chen Wai-Kin Wong Jing Chen Kalli Furtado John LMcBride Ajit Tyagi Nanette Lomarda Thierry Lefort Esperanza O.Cayanan State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China HIWeather International Coordination Office Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Colorado State University Fort CollinsCO 80523USA Naval Postgraduate School MontereyCA 93943USA Hong Kong Observatory.Hong Kong 999077 China Numerical Prediction Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office ExeterDevon EXI 3PBUK Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneVictoria 3001Australia India Meteorological Department Noida 201303India World Weather Research Division World Meteorological OrganizationGeneva 1211Switzerland Meteo-France Toulouse 31000France Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Quezon City 1100Philippines

With the increasing incidence of heavy rainfall events,particularly over the monsoon regions,the highly dense populations are more vulnerable[1].Research initiatives on observation,modeling,and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall have been promoted actively by World Weather Research Programme's(WWRP)Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research(WGTMR)of the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)since *** of monsoon-heavy-rainfall workshops were held in Beijing(2011),Petaling Jaya(2012),and New Delhi(2015)to benefit scientists worldwide and forecasters from the National Meteorological and Hydrological *** international Research and Development Project,namely,the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment(SCMREX)[2]was established in 2013 to coordinate field campaign experiments and to conduct scientific research on presummer(April-June)heavy rainfall processes in southern China.

关键词： China. rainfall monsoon

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AN AHP MODEL FOR BRINGING EXPERTS TO CONSENSUS ON MEDICAL PAYMENT STANDARDS

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2006年第2期15卷 247-255页

作者： Yuan-Huei HUANG pei-Yeh chang chih-Young HUNG Kuei-Ing WANG King-Jen chang Department of Surgery Hsin-Chu General HospitalTaiwanChina Department of Pediatric Surgery Chang Gung Children’s HospitalChang Gung UniversityCollege of MedicineTaiwanChina Institute of Management of Technology National Chiao Tung UniversityTaiwanChina Department of Information Management Ming Hsin University of Science and TechnologyTaiwanChina Department of Surgery National Taiwan University HospitalTaiwanChina

Many countries with health insurance systems conduct periodic payment standards reform. How to reach consensus in setting payment standards among different specialties with different agendas has become a critical issue. The purpose of this study is to construct an analytic hierarchy process （AHP） model to obtain judgments from experts about the importance of ＂factors related to establishing payment standards in the national health insurance program＂. Under this goal, the first tier contains four evaluation aspects, and the second tier contains sixteen evaluation criteria divided into four groups The AHP model was then used to collect and combine the opinions of experts through an empirical study. The results can be directly used to formulate standard values as the basis for establishing payment standards. The results of our study strongly support that an AHP model is effective in forming a consensus among surgical specialists.

关键词： National Health Insurance Analytic Hierarchy Process payment standards

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A Remark on the Generalized Second Order Toda System

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Acta Mathematica Sinica,English Series 2013年第9期29卷 1691-1702页

作者： Rui chang pei School of Mathematics and Statistics Tianshui Normal University

In this paper, we establish a priori estimates to the generalized second order Toda system{-Δu1（x）=2R1（x）eu1-R2eu2,-Δu2（x）=R1（x）eu1＋2R2eu2 in R2 , and discuss the convergence and asymptotic behavior of its solutions, where Ri（x）, i=1, 2, is bounded function in R2 . Consequently, we prove that all the solutions satisfy an identity, which is somewhat a generalization of the well-known Kazdan-Warner condition.

关键词： Second order Toda system asymptotic behavior priori estimates convergence

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Regulatory networks between Polycomb complexes and non-coding RNAs in the central nervous system

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Journal of Molecular Cell Biology 2020年第5期12卷 327-336页

作者： Ya-Jie Xu pei-pei Liu Shyh-chang Ng Zhao-Qian Teng chang-Mei Liu State Key Laboratory of Stem Cell and Reproductive Biology Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Savaid Medical School University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Institute for Stem Cell and Regeneration Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

High-throughput sequencing has facilitated the identification of many types of non-coding RNAs(ncRNAs)involved in diverse cellular *** as epigenetic mediators play key roles in neuronal development,maintenance,and dysfunction by controlling gene expression at multiple *** may not only target specific DNA or RNA for gene silence but may also directly interact with chromatin-modifying proteins like Polycomb group(PcG)proteins to drive orchestrated transcriptional *** significant progress has been made in characterizing ncRNAs and PcG proteins involved in transcriptional,post-transcriptional,and epigenetic *** importantly,dysregulation of ncRNAs,PcG proteins,and interplay among them is closely associated with the pathogenesis of central nervous system(CNS)*** this review,we focus on the interplay between ncRNAs and PcG proteins in the CNS and highlight the functional roles of the partnership during neural development and diseases.

关键词： epigenetics Polycomb complexes non-coding RNAs central nervous system neurological diseases

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Overview of Computational Modeling in Nano/Micro Scaled Thin Films Mechanical Properties and Its Applications

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2019年第8期120卷 239-260页

作者： chang-Chun Lee pei-Chen Huang Department of Power Mechanical Engineering National Tsing Hua UniversityNo.101Section 2Kuang-Fu RoadHsinchu 30013Taiwan

This research reviews the application of computational mechanics on the properties of nano/micro scaled thin films,in which the application of different computational methods is *** concept and fundamental theories of concerned applications,material behavior estimations,interfacial delamination behavior,strain engineering,and multilevel modeling are thoroughly ***,an example of an interfacial adhesion estimation is presented to systematically estimate the related mechanical reliability issue in the microelectronic *** presented results show that the peeled mode fracture is the dominant delamination behavior of layered material system,with high stiffness along the bonding ***,the shear mode fracture being dominated as the polymer cover plate with low moduli is *** occurrence of crack advance is also significantly influenced by the interfacial crack length and applied ***,this paper could serve as a guideline of several engineering cases with the assistance of computational mechanics.

关键词： Computational mechanics mechanical responses nano/micro thin films

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Variation of cyanobacteria with different environmental conditions in Nansi Lake,China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2012年第8期24卷 1394-1402页

作者： chang Tian Haiyan pei Wenrong Hu Jun Xie School of Environmental Science and Engineering Shandong UniversityJinan 250061China Shandong Provincial Engineering Center on Environmental Science and Technology Jinan 250061China Shandong Environmental Monitoring Central Station Jinan 250013China

Nansi Lake is located on the east line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China. A comprehensive study was carried out to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of cyanobacteria in the lake from June 2008 to May 2011 based on monthly sample monitoring from five stations. The effect of environmental factors on cyanobacterial abundance was also evaluated. The eyanobaeterial community contained 15 genera and 23 species. The cyanobacterial abundance of each monitoring station ranged from 0 to 1.53x 107 cells/L with an average of 1.45~ 106 cells/L, which accounted for 11.66% of the total phytoplankton abundance. The dominant species of cyanobacteria were Pseudanabaena （32.94%） and Merismopedia （19.85%）, not the bloom-forming algae such as Microcystis and Anabaena. In addition, the cyanobacterial community structure and water quality variables changed substantially over the survey period. Redundancy analysis （RDA） suggested that temperature and phosphorus were important environmental factors that affected cyanobacteria. Temperature was the most important factor affecting cyanobacterial abundance. The effect of phosphorus on cyanobacterial abundance was more notable in warm periods than in periods with low temperature.

关键词： cyanobacteria Nansi Lake cyanobacterial bloom South-to-North Water Diversion Project

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Comparison of murine cirrhosis models induced by hepatotoxin administration and common bile duct ligation

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2005年第27期11卷 4167-4172页

作者： Ming-Ling chang Chau-Ting Yeh pei-Yeh chang Jeng-chang Chen Liver Research Unit Department of Hepatogastroenterology Chang Gung Memorial HospitalTaoyuan Taiwan China Department of Surgery Chang Gung Children's Hospital Taoyuan Taiwan China

AIM： To build up the research models of hepatic fibrosis in ***： Inbred wild-type FVB/N mice were either treated with alpha-naphthyl-isothiocyanate （ANIT）, allyl alcohol （AA）,carbon tetrachloride （CCl4）, 3,5-diethoxycarbonyl-l,4-dihydrocollidine （DDC）, and silica, or subjected to common bile duct ligation （CBDL） to induce hepatic injury. Liver biopsies were performed every 4 wk to evaluate hepatic fibrosis over a period of 6 mo. Cumulative cirrhosis and survival curves were constructed by life table method and compared with Wilcoxon ***： Under the dosages used, there was neither mortality nor cirrhosis in AA and silica-treated groups. DDC and ANIT caused cirrhosis within 4-12 and 12-24 wk, *** showed significantly faster cirrhosis induction at high dosages without significant alteration of survival. The duration for cirrhosis induction by CCl4 ranged from 4 to 20 wk, mainly dependent upon the dosage. However, the increase in CCl4 dosage significantly worsened survival. Intraperitoneal CCl4 administration resulted in better survival in comparison with garage administration at high dosage, but not at medium and low dosages. After CBDL, all the mice developed liver cirrhosis within 4-8 wk and then died by the end of 26 ***： CBDL and administrations of ANIT, CCl4, and DDC ensured liver cirrhosis. CBDL required the least amount of time in cirrhosis induction, but caused shortened lives of mice. It was followed by DDC and ANIT administration with favorable survival. As for CCl4, the speed of cirrhosis induction and the mouse survival depended upon the dosages and the administration route.

关键词： Common bile duct ligation Fibrosis Hepatotoxin Liver Mice

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Study on the Biological Activity of 3-Aroyl-5-substituted Thiophene Derivatives Based on the CoMFA Method

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Chinese Journal of Structural Chemistry 2020年第11期39卷 1978-1984页

作者： FENG Hui FENG chang-Jun CAO Jing-pei Key Laboratory of Coal Processing and Efficient Utilization(Ministry of Education) Xuzhou 221116China School of Chemistry&Chemical Engineering Xuzhou University of TechnologyXuzhou 221018China

A three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship(3 D-QSAR) study was conducted to analyze the A1 AR density(Bmax) of 56 3-aroyl-5-substituted thiophene derivatives(ASTDs) in human A1 Chinese hamster ovary(hA1 CHO) membranes by the comparative molecular field analysis(CoMFA) method. A training set of 45 compounds was used to establish the predictive model, which was verified by the test set of 17 compounds containing template molecule and 5 newly designed molecules. The cross-validation(R2 cv) and non-cross-validation(R2) coefficients of the training set were 0.655 and 0.959, respectively. The model was used to predict the activities of the compounds of the training and test sets, and the results indicated that the models had strong stability and good prediction ability. According to model analysis, the contribution of steric and electrostatic fields was 51.4% and 48.6%, respectively. Based on the 3 D contour maps, five excellent ASTDs agonists were designed, which need to be further verified by biomedical experiments.

关键词： 3-aroyl-5-substituted thiophene derivatives(ASTDs) A1AR density(Bmax) three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship comparative molecular field analysis

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