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Antecedent Precipitation Index to Estimate Soil Moisture and Correlate as a Triggering Process in the Occurrence of Landslides

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International Journal of Geosciences 2024年第1期15卷 70-86页

作者： Marcio Augusto Ernesto De Moraes Walter Manoel Mendes Filho Rodolfo Moreda Mendes cassiano antonio bortolozo Daniel Metodiev Marcio Roberto Magalhães De Andrade Harideva Marturano Egas Tatiana Sussel Gonçalves Mendes Luana Albertani Pampuch CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Faculty of Science and Technology Goias Federal University Aparecida de Goi&#226nia Brazil Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University (Unesp) S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil

Landslides are highly dangerous phenomena that occur in different parts of the world and pose significant threats to human populations. Intense rainfall events are the main triggering process for landslides in urbanized slope regions, especially those considered high-risk areas. Various other factors contribute to the process;thus, it is essential to analyze the causes of such incidents in all possible ways. Soil moisture plays a critical role in the Earth’s surface-atmosphere interaction systems;hence, measurements and their estimations are crucial for understanding all processes involved in the water balance, especially those related to landslides. Soil moisture can be estimated from in-situ measurements using different sensors and techniques, satellite remote sensing, hydrological modeling, and indicators to index moisture conditions. Antecedent soil moisture can significantly impact runoff for the same rainfall event in a watershed. The Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) or “retained rainfall,” along with the antecedent moisture condition from the Natural Resources Conservation Service, is generally applied to estimate runoff in watersheds where data is limited or unavailable. This work aims to explore API in estimating soil moisture and establish thresholds based on landslide occurrences. The estimated soil moisture will be compared and calibrated using measurements obtained through multisensor capacitance probes installed in a high-risk area located in the mountainous region of Campos do Jordão municipality, São Paulo, Brazil. The API used in the calculation has been modified, where the recession coefficient depends on air temperature variability as well as the climatological mean temperature, which can be considered as losses in the water balance due to evapotranspiration. Once the API is calibrated, it will be used to extrapolate to the entire watershed and consequently estimate soil moisture. By utilizing recorded mass movements and comparing them with AP

关键词： Landslides Antecedent Precipitation Index Soil Moisture Threshold Water Balance

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ARHCS (Automatic Rainfall Half-Life Cluster System): A Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) Using Cluster Analysis and Automatic Threshold Definition

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International Journal of Geosciences 2024年第1期15卷 54-69页

作者： cassiano antonio bortolozo Luana Albertani Pampuch Marcio Roberto Magalhães De Andrade Daniel Metodiev Adenilson Roberto Carvalho Tatiana Sussel Gonçalves Mendes Tristan Pryer Harideva Marturano Egas Rodolfo Moreda Mendes Isadora Araújo Sousa Jenny Power Cemaden - National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Environmental Engineering Department Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK Institute for Mathematical Innovation University of Bath Bath UK

A significant portion of Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS) relies on the definition of operational thresholds and the monitoring of cumulative rainfall for alert issuance. These thresholds can be obtained in various ways, but most often they are based on previous landslide data. This approach introduces several limitations. For instance, there is a requirement for the location to have been previously monitored in some way to have this type of information recorded. Another significant limitation is the need for information regarding the location and timing of incidents. Despite the current ease of obtaining location information (GPS, drone images, etc.), the timing of the event remains challenging to ascertain for a considerable portion of landslide data. Concerning rainfall monitoring, there are multiple ways to consider it, for instance, examining accumulations over various intervals (1 h, 6 h, 24 h, 72 h), as well as in the calculation of effective rainfall, which represents the precipitation that actually infiltrates the soil. However, in the vast majority of cases, both the thresholds and the rain monitoring approach are defined manually and subjectively, relying on the operators’ experience. This makes the process labor-intensive and time-consuming, hindering the establishment of a truly standardized and rapidly scalable methodology on a large scale. In this work, we propose a Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) based on the concept of rainfall half-life and the determination of thresholds using Cluster Analysis and data inversion. The system is designed to be applied in extensive monitoring networks, such as the one utilized by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.

关键词： Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) Cluster Analysis Landslides Brazil

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Obtaining 2D Soil Geotechnical Profiles from Cokriging Interpolation of Sample Data and Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)—Applications in Mass Movements Studies

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International Journal of Geosciences 2024年第7期15卷 525-548页

作者： cassiano antonio bortolozo Noel Howley Andy Legg Tristan Pryer Danielle Silva de Paula Tatiana Sussel Gonçalves Mendes Daniel Metodiev Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade Silvio Jorge Coelho Simões Maiconn Vinicius de Moraes Marcio Augusto Ernesto de Moraes Luana Albertani Pampuch Rodolfo Moreda Mendes Harideva Marturano Egas Institute of Science and Technology So Paulo State University (UNESP) So Jos dos Campos Brazil Cemaden-National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development So Jos dos Campos Brazil Institute for Mathematical Innovation University of Bath Bath UK Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK

Brazil annually faces significant challenges with mass movements, particularly in areas with poorly constructed housing, inadequate engineering, and lacking sanitation infrastructure. Campos do Jordão, in São Paulo state, is a city currently grappling with these issues. This paper details a study conducted within a pilot area in Campos do Jordão, where geophysical surveys and geotechnical borehole data were integrated. The geophysical surveys provided 2D profiles, and samples were collected to analyse soil moisture and plasticity. These datasets were combined using a Cokriging-based model to produce an accurate representation of the subsurface conditions. The enhanced modelling of subsurface variability facilitates a deeper understanding of soil behavior, which can be used to improve landslide risk assessments. This approach is innovative, particularly within the international context where similar studies often do not address the complexities associated with urban planning deficits such as those observed in some areas of Brazil. These conditions, including the lack of proper sanitation and irregular housing, significantly influence the geological stability of the region, adding layers of complexity to subsurface assessments. Adapting geotechnical evaluation methods to local challenges offers the potential to increase the efficacy and relevance of geological risk management in regions with similar socio-economic and urban characteristics.

关键词： Mass Movements Geophysics ERT Geotechnical Surveys Campos do Jordão Cokriging

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Electrical Resistivity Tomography and TDEM Applied to Hydrogeological Study in TaubatéBasin, Brazil

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International Journal of Geosciences 2018年第2期9卷 119-130页

作者： Rodrigo Corrêa Rangel Jorge Luís Porsani cassiano antonio bortolozo Luiz Rodrigo Hamada Universidade de Sã o Paulo Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas Departamento de Geofísica S&atilde o Paulo Brazil CEMADEN—National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alert General Coordination of Research and Development S&atilde o José dos Campos Brazil

This research applies Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Time Domain Electromagnetic Method (TDEM) to study the hydrogeology of the Taubaté basin, which is characterized by half-grabens with about 850 m of maximum sediments thickness. The study area is in Taubaté city, São Paulo State, Brazil, where the Taubaté aquifer is an important water source. The Taubaté Group is the main sedimentary package of the basin;it is formed mainly by shales that form aquicludes, and thin layers of sandstones that form the aquifer. There are 40 groundwater exploration wells in Taubaté city that provide important information. The study purpose is to characterize the geoelectrical stratigraphy of the subsurface to locate the contact between the Quaternary and Tertiary sediments and to identify the Taubaté aquifer. The ERT is used for shallow investigations (tens of meters) and the TDEM can reach a great investigation depth (hundreds of meters). Therefore, these geophysical methods are complementary. The ERT data were acquired with the pole-dipole array with 20 m of electrodes spacing and 400 m length, and the TDEM data with the central-loop array with a 200 × 200 m transmitter loop. The results permit to define the contact between the Quaternary and Tertiary sediments around 15 m depth, the Pindamonhangaba Formation between 15 m and 30 m depth and the Taubate Group between 30 m and 300 m depth. The TDEM method defined the Taubaté Group as a single geoelectric layer because the shale and the sandstone layers are all very conductive. The basement is formed by gneiss, which is a very resistive rock. The TDEM method is not able to identify a high conductor/resistor contrast. Overall, the results are consistent with the known geology and the wells information.

关键词： Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) Time Domain Electromagnetic (TDEM) Hydrogeophysics Taubaté Basin Brazil

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A Review on Clustering Methods for Climatology Analysis and Its Application over South America

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International Journal of Geosciences 2023年第9期14卷 877-894页

作者： Luana Albertani Pampuch Rogério Galante Negri Paul C. Loikith cassiano antonio bortolozo Environmental Engineering Department Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Department of Geography Portland State University Portland Oregon Cemaden-National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil

South America’s climatic diversity is a product of its vast geographical expanse, encompassing tropical to subtropical latitudes. The variations in precipitation and temperature across the region stem from the influence of distinct atmospheric systems. While some studies have characterized the prevailing systems over South America, they often lacked the utilization of statistical techniques for homogenization. On the other hand, other research has employed multivariate statistical methods to identify homogeneous regions regarding temperature and precipitation, but their focus has been limited to specific areas, such as the south, southeast, and northeast. Surprisingly, there is a lack of work that compares various multivariate statistical techniques to determine homogeneous regions across the entirety of South America concerning temperature and precipitation. This paper aims to address this gap by comparing three such techniques: Cluster Analysis (K-means and Ward) and Self Organizing Maps, using data from different sources for temperature (ERA5, ERA5-Land, and CRU) and precipitation (ERA5, ERA5-Land, and CPC). Spatial patterns and time series were generated for each region over the period 1981-2010. The results from this analysis of spatially homogeneous regions concerning temperature and precipitation have the potential to significantly benefit climate analysis and forecasts. Moreover, they can offer valuable insights for various climatological studies, guiding decision-making processes in diverse fields that rely on climate information, such as agriculture, disaster management, and water resources planning.

关键词： Climatology Clustering Methods Clustering Regionalization Reanalysis Data South America

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2D TEM Modeling for a Hydrogeological Study in the ParanáSedimentary Basin, Brazil

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International Journal of Geosciences 2017年第5期8卷 693-710页

作者： Emerson Rodrigo Almeida Jorge Luís Porsani Fernando Acácio Monteiro dos Santos cassiano antonio bortolozo Universidade de Sã o Paulo Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas Departamento de Geofísica. Rua do Mat&atilde o Butant&atilde S&atilde o Paulo Brazil Universidade de Lisboa-IDL Lisboa Portugal

This work uses 2D TEM (Transient Electromagnetic) modeling for a hydrogeological study in the Paraná sedimentary basin. The study area is located at the northern region of the state of S?o Paulo, Brazil, where groundwater is exploited from two aquifer systems: one sedimentary, shallow, and the other crystalline, deep. The interest in applying the TEM method in this area owes to the high exploitation rates of groundwater from the crystalline aquifer system for irrigation, which is triggering considerable seismic activity locally. This aquifer system is composed of fractured basalt within the Serra Geral Formation and is about 120 m deep. Eighty-six TEM soundings were acquired at this location, but in nine cases the data did not fit the modelled curve for 1D geoelectrical models due to the geological complexity of the area. This paper shows 2D geoelectrical modeling results based on the FDTD (Finite Differences in Time Domain) method to explain the lateral resistivity variation within the geological setting. A 2D model was generated for each sounding and compared with 1D inversion models as well as with direct information from wells. The results show some vertical variations of about 10 to 30 meters on the upper interface of the basalt layer from Serra Geral Formation. They are located at approximately 60 meters from the center of the soundings. The existence of these 2D structures in the subsurface can be related to the drainage system in the study area. The presence of these structures may indicate a connection between the shallow and deep aquifer systems, acting like a conduit that may contribute to the seismic activity reported.

关键词： Transient Electromagnetic (TEM) 2D Modeling Hydrogeophysics Paraná Basin Brazil

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The Effects of Negative Values of Apparent Resistivity in TEM Surveys

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International Journal of Geosciences 2016年第10期7卷 1182-1190页

作者： cassiano antonio bortolozo Julian David Realpe Campaña Marco antonio Couto Junior Jorge Luis Porsani Fernando Acácio Monteiro dos Santos Departamento de Geofísica Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG) Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP) Sao Paulo Brasil Brazilian Geological Survey (CPRM) Belo Horizonte Brazil University of Lisboa Don Luiz Institute (IDL) Lisbon Portugal

The calculation of apparent resistivity in electrical methods is relatively simple and consolidated in the literature. Furthermore, in the case of DC methods, the apparent resistivity values are for the most part, intuitive and enable an initial interpretation of the results. On the other hand, in TEM method the apparent resistivity values are not very intuitive and interpretation based only on the apparent resistivity values cannot be done reasonably. In this way, this paper presents a discussion about the reasons and effects of the negatives values of apparent resistivity in TEM soundings. The main objective of this paper is to clarify the meanings of these negatives values and the possible effects in TEM inversion.

关键词： Transient Electromagnetic (TEM) Apparent Resistivity Negative Values

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Thresholds of Instability: Precipitation, Landslides, and Early Warning Systems in Brazil

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International Journal of Geosciences 2023年第10期14卷 895-912页

作者： Maiconn Vinicius de Moraes Luana Albertani Pampuch cassiano antonio bortolozo Tatiana Sussel Gonçalves Mendes Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade Daniel Metodiev Tristan Pryer Environmental Engineering Department Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Cemaden—National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK

Rainfall accumulation thresholds are crucial for issuing landslide warnings by identifying when soil saturation from rain could potentially trigger a landslide. Two essential types of thresholds are considered: environmental and operational. The environmental threshold indicates the minimum rainfall level required to potentially initiate a landslide. Conversely, the operational threshold is set lower to enable agencies to issue alerts before reaching environmental thresholds. Establishing these thresholds improves the accuracy of landslide predictions in terms of location and timing. This study introduces an innovative approach for determining these thresholds. Our approach employs cluster analysis and historical landslide data from the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Pernambuco State, Brazil. We applied our defined values to a significant landslide event in 2022, validating their robustness as the foundation for the operational threshold used by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.

关键词： Cluster Analysis Landslides Environmental Thresholds Rainfall Brazil

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The SNAKE System: CEMADEN’s Landslide Early Warning System (LEWS) Mechanism

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International Journal of Geosciences 2023年第11期14卷 1146-1159页

作者： Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade cassiano antonio bortolozo Adenilson Roberto Carvalho Harideva Marturano Egas Klaifer Garcia Daniel Metodiev Tulius Dias Nery Carla Prieto Tristan Pryer Silvia Midori Saito Graziela Scofield CEMADEN—National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK

In Brazil, the prominent climate-induced disasters are floods and mass movements, with the latter being the most lethal. The spate of major landslide events, especially those in 2011, catalyzed the creation of CEMADEN (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters). This article introduces one of CEMADEN’s pivotal systems for early landslide warnings and traces its developmental timeline. The highlighted SNAKE System epitomizes advancements in digital monitoring, forecasting, and alert mechanisms. By leveraging precipitation data from pluviometers in observed municipalities, the system bolsters early warnings related to potential mass movements, like planar slides and debris flows. Its deployment in CEMADEN’s Situation Room attests to its suitability for overseeing high-risk municipalities, attributed primarily to its robustness and precision.

关键词： Natural Disasters Landslide Early Warning System (LEWS) SNAKE System CEMADEN Brazil

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Correlation between Rainfall and Mass Movements in North Coast Region of Sao Paulo State, Brazil for 2014-2018

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International Journal of Geosciences 2018年第12期9卷 669-679页

作者： Daniel Metodiev Marcio Roberto Magalhaes de Andrade Rodolfo Moreda Mendes Marcio Augusto Ernesto de Moraes Tehrrie Konig cassiano antonio bortolozo Tiago Bernardes Rafael Alexandre Ferreira Luiz Juliano Oliveira Martins Coelho National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) Sao Jose dos Campos Sao Paulo Brazil

The monitoring of related hourly and accumulated rainfall index requires that critical thresholds of accumulated 72 hours rainfall are updated frequently according with the factors and local conditions (natural and anthropic) of each specific risk area. The importance of empirical methods is fundamental to confirm the relationship between rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall with the mass movement events, in order to establish the critical threshold values. The present work performs an evaluation of the record data of mass movement events occurred in Sao Paulo State North coast region for a 4-year period (2014 to 2018) considering different mass movement characteristics (slope type, magnitude and impact level). Some rainfall values were obtained to show that within these parameters an event related to natural and anthropic features was triggered. A database was created, sorting source of information and municipalities monitored, to implement the correlation between the mass movement events and the rainfall values. To elaborate the event’s map, reliable record data of localization of the mass movement events was selected, as well as the nearest possible raingauges of CEMADEN (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters);also the exact event triggering time, selection by the slope type, the magnitude and the impact level of the mass movement event. The rainfall values of these raingauges allowed the calculation of the accumulated rainfall index for 1, 3, 6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours, with the adoption of the 72 hours index for this work. The correlation graphics are divided by the slope type, the magnitude and the impact level of the mass movement event. Different critical thresholds appear, classifying such event by the influence level of triggering factors, natural and/or anthropic.

关键词： Mass Movement Events Rainfall Intensity Accumulated Rainfall Critical Thresholds Sao Paulo State-Brazil

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