Thresholds of Instability: Precipitation, Landslides, and Early Warning Systems in Brazil
Thresholds of Instability: Precipitation, Landslides, and Early Warning Systems in Brazil作者机构：Environmental Engineering Department Institute of Science and Technology São Paulo State University São José dos Campos Brazil Cemaden—National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development São José dos Campos Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK
出 版 物：《International Journal of Geosciences》 (地球科学国际期刊（英文）)
年 卷 期：2023年第14卷第10期
页 面：895-912页
学科分类：081803[工学-地质工程] 08[工学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程]
主 题：Cluster Analysis Landslides Environmental Thresholds Rainfall Brazil
摘 要：Rainfall accumulation thresholds are crucial for issuing landslide warnings by identifying when soil saturation from rain could potentially trigger a landslide. Two essential types of thresholds are considered: environmental and operational. The environmental threshold indicates the minimum rainfall level required to potentially initiate a landslide. Conversely, the operational threshold is set lower to enable agencies to issue alerts before reaching environmental thresholds. Establishing these thresholds improves the accuracy of landslide predictions in terms of location and timing. This study introduces an innovative approach for determining these thresholds. Our approach employs cluster analysis and historical landslide data from the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Pernambuco State, Brazil. We applied our defined values to a significant landslide event in 2022, validating their robustness as the foundation for the operational threshold used by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.
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