检索结果-南通市图书馆

Spatial Variation and Trend of Extreme Precipitation in Africa during 1981-2019 and Its Projected Changes at the End of 21<sup>stsup> Century

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2024年第3期12卷 192-221页

作者： Fabien Habiyakare Tong Jiang Ibrahim Yahaya Daudi Ndabagenga James Kagabo buda su School of Atmospheric Sciences Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda) Kigali Rwanda Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing China Department of Geography Gombe State University Gombe State Nigeria

This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21sup>stsup> century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21sup>stsup> century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.

关键词： Extreme Precipitation Mann-Kendall Trend Projections Oceanic System Africa

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

气候与社会经济变化下抚河流域氮磷负荷变化

人民长江 2024年第2期55卷 65-76页

作者：王媛苏布达姜彤王艳君单敬敬南京信息工程大学地理科学学院江苏南京210044

目前对氮磷预估的研究主要是基于气候变化和社会经济不变的假定,缺少考虑社会经济动态变化对氮磷负荷的影响。为研究气候和社会经济共同作用下氮磷负荷的变化,选取第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中情景完善的5个气候模式中的7个气候情景... 详细信息

目前对氮磷预估的研究主要是基于气候变化和社会经济不变的假定,缺少考虑社会经济动态变化对氮磷负荷的影响。为研究气候和社会经济共同作用下氮磷负荷的变化,选取第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中情景完善的5个气候模式中的7个气候情景SSPs(SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP4-3.4、SSP4-6.0、SSP5-8.5),采用SWAT水文模型模拟分析了气候变化和社会经济变化共同作用下抚河流域2021~2050年氮磷负荷相对基准期(1995~2014年)的时空变化特征。研究结果表明:①社会经济变化是氮磷负荷变化的主要影响因素,但1981~2020年气候对总氮负荷变化的贡献率从14.4%上升到18.2%,对总磷负荷变化的贡献率从13.5%上升到17.8%,表明气候变化对总氮总磷负荷的影响在增加,社会经济变化对总氮总磷负荷的影响减小。②抚河流域多年平均总氮负荷量约9333.4 t,1995~2014年以-113.7 t/a速率呈显著下降趋势;相对于基准期,流域总氮负荷量在2021~2050年预计呈显著减少趋势。空间分布上,总氮负荷主要集中在流域中下游干流附近,中游东部和西部总氮负荷较低。③抚河流域多年平均总磷负荷量约1632 t,1995~2014年以2.1 t/a速率呈上升趋势;2021~2050年流域总磷负荷量相比基准期将呈增加趋势。空间分布上,在流域出口及中下游总磷负荷浓度较高,中游东部和上游总磷负荷较低。

关键词：氮磷负荷未来预估气候变化社会经济 CMIP6 SWAT模型抚河流域

Projection of temperature and precipitation under SSPs-RCPs Scenarios over northwest China

同方期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库博看期刊评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Frontiers of Earth Science 2021年第1期15卷 23-37页

作者： Jiancheng QIN buda su Hui TAO Yanjun WANG Jinlong HUANG Tong JIANG State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China College of Resource and Environment Sciences Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Climate change significantly affects the environmental and socioeconomic conditions in northwest *** we evaluate the ability of five general circulation models(GCMs)from 6th phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6)to reproduce regional temperature and precipitation over northwest China from 1961 to 2014,and project the future temperature and precipitation during 2021 to 2100 under SSPs-RCPs(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP4-3.4,SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5).The results show that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than *** show that the annual mean temperature will further increase under different SSPs-RCPs scenarios in the 21st *** climate changes in the near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060)and long-term(2081-2100)are analyzed relative to the reference period(1995-2014).In the long term,warming will be significantly higher than the near and *** the long term,annual mean temperature will increase by 1.4℃,1.9℃,3.3℃,5.5℃,2.7℃,3.8℃ and 6.0℃ under SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP4-3.4,SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5,***,warming in the Junggar Basin will be higher than those in the Tarim ***,the maximum warming zone will be in the mountainous areas of Tarim Basin during spring and autumn,in the southern basin during winter,and in the east during *** shows an increasing trend under different SSPs-RCPs in the 21st *** the long term,increase in precipitation will be significantly higher than in the near and *** in annual precipitation in the long term will be 4.1% under SSP1-1.9,13.9% under SSP1-2.6,28.4% under SSP2-4.5, 35.2% under SSP3-7.0, 6.9% under SSP4-3.4, 8.9% under SSP4-6.0, and 27.3% under SSP5-8.5 relative to the reference period of 1995-2014. Spatially, precipitation increase will be higher in the south than the north, especially higher in mountainous regions than the basin under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5.

关键词： temperature precipitation projection SSPs-RCPs northwest China

Regional Frequency Analysis of Observed sub-Daily Rainfall Maxima over Eastern China

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第2期34卷 209-225页

作者： Hemin suN Guojie WANG Xiucang LI Jing CHEN buda su Tong JIANG Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Institute of Geography and Remote SensingNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesOriimqi 830011China National Climate Center China MeteorologicaI AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Based on hourly rainfall observational data from 442 stations during 1960-2014, a regional frequency analysis of the annual maxima （AM） sub-daily rainfall series （1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, using a moving window approach） for eastern China was conducted. Eastern China was divided into 13 homogeneous regions： Northeast （NE1, NE2）, Central （C）, Central North （CN1, CN2）, Central East （CE1, CE2, CE3）, Southeast （SE1, SE2, SE3, SE4）, and Southwest （SW）. The generalized extreme value performed best for the AM series in regions NE, C, CN2, CE1, CE2, SE2, and SW, and the generalized logistic distribution was appropriate in the other regions. Maximum return levels were in the SE4 region, with value ranges of 80-270 mm （1-h to 24-h rainfall） and 108-390 mm （1-h to 24-h rainfall） for 20- and 100 yr, respectively. Minimum return levels were in the CN1 and NE1 regions, with values of 37-104 mm and 53-140 mm for 20 and 100 yr, respectively. Comparing return levels using the optimal and commonly used Pearson-III distribution, the mean return-level differences in eastern China for 1-24-h rainfall varied from -3-4 mm to -23-11 mm （- 10%-10%） for 20-yr events, reaching -6-26 mm （-10%-30%） and -10-133 mm （-10%-90%） for 100-yr events. In view of the large differences in estimated return levels, more attention should be given to frequency analysis of sub-daily rainfall over China, for improved water management and disaster reduction.

关键词： sub-daily rainfall annual maxima regional frequency analysis return level eastern China

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

中国旱涝急转事件时空变化特征

水利水电技术（中英文） 2024年第8期55卷 13-23页

作者：孙锦浩苏布达王东方黄金龙王炳炜戴然姜彤南京信息工程大学地理科学学院江苏南京210044 南京信息工程大学灾害风险管理研究院江苏南京210044

【目的】旱涝急转事件造成的社会经济和生态环境影响严重,是我国发生频繁且广泛的一种复合型事件。明确我国旱涝急转事件发生的时空变化特征,可为地区制定防灾减灾措施提供科学依据。【方法】基于1961—2021年气象观测数据,使用Penman-M... 详细信息

【目的】旱涝急转事件造成的社会经济和生态环境影响严重,是我国发生频繁且广泛的一种复合型事件。明确我国旱涝急转事件发生的时空变化特征,可为地区制定防灾减灾措施提供科学依据。【方法】基于1961—2021年气象观测数据,使用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散发,然后计算逐日的标准化降水蒸散指数(daily-SPEI),分流域对中国旱涝急转事件的频次、影响范围和趋势的变化特征进行分析。【结果】结果显示:(1)时间趋势上,1961—2021年中国受旱涝急转事件影响的范围以0.6%/10a的趋势增加,且平均每年有19.8%的范围发生旱涝急转事件。(2)空间分布上,旱涝急转事件主要分布在淮河流域、黄河流域、长江流域和松花江流域,事件发生频次在30次以上地区分别占流域总面积的63.1%、20.7%、15.0%、14.6%,事件频次最高达到53次。(3)中国旱涝急转事件存在明显的季节差异,主要发生在夏季事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占中国总面积的一半以上;其次是春季和秋季,事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占比均不足15%;冬季发生最少,事件发生频次在5次以下。【结论】结果表明:中国旱涝急转事件的影响范围整体呈增加趋势,中国中东部和东北部是旱涝急转事件发生频繁地区。研究结果可为旱涝急转事件的监测与应对提供科学基础。

关键词：复合型事件旱涝急转事件逐日SPEI 时空变化特征气候变化时空分布长江流域洪水

Synchronous Characteristics of Precipitation Extremes in the Yangtze and Murray–Darling River Basins and the Role of ENSO

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第2期35卷 282-294页

作者： Yu GONG Tong JIANG buda su Jinlong HUANG Zbigniew WKUNDZEWICZ Cheng JING Hemin suN State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Science Nanjing University of Information Science&Technologyy Nanjing 210044China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Beijing Meteorological Observation Center(Beijing Observatory) Beijing 100089China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Institute of Agricultural and Forest Environment Polish Academy of Sciences y Bukowska 1960-809PoznanPoland

The floods caused by the extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin(YRB)and Murray–Darling River basin(MDRB),the largest basins in China and Australia,have significant impacts on the society and regional *** on the spatial–temporal analysis of the daily precipitation extremes(DPEs)during 1982–2016,we found that for both basins,the whole-basin-type DPEs have the highest proportion and a synchronous DPE interannual variation characteristic exists in the two basins,with the 3-yr running correlation coefficient of the annual DPE days(DPEDs)reaching almost 0.7(significant at the 0.01 level).The El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),which is one of the most significant climate disturbance factors in the world,plays an important role in modulating the variability of the DPEs in the two *** value decomposition(SVD)analysis revealed that both the YRB and the MDRB’s whole-basin-type DPEs are closely coupled with the procedure that the preceding winter eastern Pacific(EP)-type El Ni?o faded to a central Pacific(CP)-type La *** means that the DPEs in the YRB and MDRB may synchronously occur more frequently when the above process *** to the atmosphere–ocean interaction from the east–west dipole sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly pattern,the atmospheric circulation disturbance exhibits a pattern in which the equatorial eastern Pacific region is a mass source anomaly with a higher pressure,drier air,and weaker convection,while the equatorial western Pacific region is a mass sink anomaly with a lower pressure,wetter air,and stronger ***,two wave trains that originated from the tropical western Pacific were found to extend to the YRB and *** interaction between the wave train’s interphase dynamics and water vapor transport disturbance results in the ascent conditions and enhanced water vapor transport,which leads to the synchronous occurrence of DPEs in the YRB and MDRB on an interannual scale.

关键词： precipitation extreme El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Yangtze River basin(YRB) Murray–Darling River basin(MDRB)

Projected land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第6期66卷 1383-1398页

作者： Runhong XU Peijun SHI Miaoni GAO Yanjun WANG Guojie WANG buda su Jinlong HUANG Qigen LIN Tong JIANG School of Geographical Science Qinghai Normal UniversityXining 810008China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Science Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Reasearch Institute of Climatic and Environmental Governance Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Based on historical land use for eight periods from 1980 to 2020 and the projected land use under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs:SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP4-3.4,SSP4-6.0,and SSP5-8.5)from 2021 to 2100,we conducted a study on past and future land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP).This work aims to reveal the land use changes during the carbon peak(2021-2040)and carbon neutrality(2051-2070)periods and at the end of the 21st century(2081-2100).The results show that:(1)in the historical period(1980-2020),the land use types in the QTP were grassland(1475×10^(3)km^(2),58.2%),barren land(685×10^(3)km^(2),27.0%),forest land(243×10^(3)km^(2),9.6%),water(114×10^(3)km^(2),4.5%),cropland(18.6×10^(3)km^(2),0.7%)and urban land(0.3×10^(3)km^(2),0.01%).(2)Relative to the baseline period(1995-2014),the area of grassland is projected to decrease by 0.7%(SSP4-6.0)-5.4%(SSP2-4.5)(0.5-3.9%of the total area of the QTP),2.8%(SSP4-6.0)-12.5%(SSP3-7.0)(2.1-9.4%of the total area of the QTP)and 6.1%(SSP4-6.0)-21.7%(SSP4-3.4)(4.6-16.4%of the total area of the QTP)in the future three *** contrast,the forest land area is projected to increase,by approximately 2.5%(SSP4-6.0)to 30.1%(SSP3-7.0)(0.3-4.3%of the total area of the QTP),9.2%(SSP4-6.0)to 56.5%(SSP2-4.5)(1.3-8.0%of the total area of the QTP),and 21.2%(SSP4-6.0)to 72.8%(SSP2-4.5)(3.0-10.2%of the total area of the QTP)in the future three periods,respectively.(3)Approximately 0.4(SSP4-6.0)to 6.9%(SSP5-8.5),0.9(SSP4-6.0)to 2.7%(SSP4-3.4),and 0.04(SSP5-8.5)to 3.5%(SSP1-1.9)of land is expected to convert from grassland to forest land in the future three periods,*** shift from grassland to forest land area is likely to enhance the carbon sink potential of the QTP in the future period.

关键词： Land use change SSPs Carbon neutrality Carbon peak Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

“双碳”时期青海省风速及风能资源潜力评估

冰川冻土 2024年第3期46卷 1055-1068页

作者：姜涵姜彤苏布达高妙妮段美霞徐润宏姜汕王东方南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院江苏南京210044 南京信息工程大学气候与环境治理研究院江苏南京210044 青海师范大学地理科学学院青海西宁810008

风能资源的开发利用是实现“双碳”目标的重要途径。本研究利用1961—2022年逐日风速站点观测资料,选取涵盖七个共享社会经济路径的五个CMIP6气候模式1995—2100年逐日风速数据,构建了青海省1 km水平分辨率的风能资源数据库,并分析该地... 详细信息

风能资源的开发利用是实现“双碳”目标的重要途径。本研究利用1961—2022年逐日风速站点观测资料,选取涵盖七个共享社会经济路径的五个CMIP6气候模式1995—2100年逐日风速数据,构建了青海省1 km水平分辨率的风能资源数据库,并分析该地区1961—2022年、“碳达峰”(2026—2035年)和“碳中和”时期(2056—2065年)风能资源的时空变化趋势。研究发现:(1)1961—2022年,青海省10 m高度年平均风速为3.06 m·s^(-1),风电机轮毂高度所在的100 m高度有效风功率密度为125.14 W·m^(-2),风能可利用天数达167天,风能资源西多东少,柴达木盆地和唐古拉山脉一带尤其是布尔汗布达山脉西部风能资源最丰富;(2)青海省风能资源总体呈减少趋势,风速以2.08%·a^(-1)的速率减小,有效高度风功率密度以1.40%·a^(-1)的速率减少,风能可利用天数以0.88%·a^(-1)的速率缩短;(3)2026—2035年和2056—2065年,青海省风速分别为2.52 m·s^(-1)(2.39~2.63 m·s^(-1))和2.49 m·s^(-1)(2.31~2.59 m·s^(-1)),相较于历史时期,分别减小了3.53%(2.34%~5.24%)和5.71%(5.21%~6.53%),有效风功率密度为50.28 W·m^(-2)(46.17~64.08W·m^(-2))和47.75W·m^(-2)(38.89~54.79W·m^(-2)),降低了10.20%(6.69%~14.91%)和15.79%(14.72%~18.32%),风能可利用天数为114天(105~124天)和111天(99~120天),缩短了7.58%(2.44%~11.05%)和10.73%(8.39%~13.55%);(4)2026—2035年和2056—2065年,相较于高辐射强迫情景(SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5),低辐射强迫情景(SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP4-3.4)下,青海省的风速可能高出1.75%和5.16%,风功率密度多5.23%和14.28%,风能可利用天数多3.32%和9.71%。总体而言,青海省西部特别是柴达木盆地和唐古拉山脉一带风能资源储量大、减幅小、降速低,存在较大开发利用潜力。本研究结果为风能资源开发提供理论依据,助推国家新能源产业高质量发展,践行绿色低碳理念。

关键词：风能资源 “双碳”时期时空变化 CMIP6 青海省

Runoff components and the contributions of precipitation and temperature in a highly glacierized river basin in Central As

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Frontiers of Earth Science 2023年第2期17卷 361-377页

作者： Anqian WANG buda su Jinlong HUANG Cheng JING Zbigniew WKUNDZEWICZ Hui TAO Mingjin ZHAN Tong JIANG College of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal UniversityJinan 250358China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster/Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geography Science Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment Polish Academy of SciencesPoznan 60809Poland Jiangxi Eco-meteorological Center Nanchang 330000China

Understanding the main drivers of runoff components and contributions of precipitation and temperature have important implications for water-limited inland basins,where snow and glacier melt provide essential inputs to surface *** quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on river runoff in the Tarim River basin(TRB),the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning(HBV)-light model,which contains a glacier routine process,was applied to analyze the change in runoff *** in the headstream parts of the TRB was more sensitive to temperature than to *** the TRB,overall,rainfall generated 41.22%of the total runoff,while snow and glacier meltwater generated 20.72%and 38.06%,*** values indicate that temperature exerted more major effects on runoff than did *** compositions were different in the various subbasins and may have been caused by different glacier *** runoff volumes generated by rainfall,snowmelt,glacier melt was almost equal in the Aksu River *** the Yarkand and Hotan River subbasins,glacier meltwater was the main supplier of runoff,accounting for 46.72%and 58.73%,*** the Kaidu-Kongque River subbasin,80.86%was fed by rainfall and 19.14%was fed by *** the TRB,runoff generated by rainfall was the dominant component in spring,autumn,winter,while glacier melt runoff was the dominant component in *** in the TRB significantly increased during 1961–2016;additionally,56.49%of the increase in runoff was contributed by temperature changes,and 43.51%was contributed by precipitation *** spring,the runoff increase in the TRB was mainly caused by the precipitation increase,opposite result in summer and *** of temperature was negative in *** findings have important implications for water resource management in high mountainous regions and for similar river basins in which melting glaciers strongly impact the hydrological

关键词： runoff components glacier meltwater contribution HBV-light model Tarim River basin