Projection of temperature and precipitation under SSPs-RCPs Scenarios over northwest China

作     者：Jiancheng QIN Buda SU Hui TAO Yanjun WANG Jinlong HUANG Tong JIANG Jiancheng QIN;Buda SU;Hui TAO;Yanjun WANG;Jinlong HUANG;Tong JIANG

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis EcologyXinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China College of Resource and Environment SciencesXinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical SciencesNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China 

出 版 物：《Frontiers of Earth Science》 (地球科学前沿（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第15卷第1期

页      面：23-37页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0704[理学-天文学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018FY100501) National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41971023) CAS"Light of West China"Program(2019-XBQNXZ-B-004) 

主　　题：temperature precipitation projection SSPs-RCPs northwest China 

摘      要：Climate change significantly affects the environmental and socioeconomic conditions in northwest *** we evaluate the ability of five general circulation models(GCMs)from 6th phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6)to reproduce regional temperature and precipitation over northwest China from 1961 to 2014,and project the future temperature and precipitation during 2021 to 2100 under SSPs-RCPs(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP4-3.4,SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5).The results show that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than *** show that the annual mean temperature will further increase under different SSPs-RCPs scenarios in the 21st *** climate changes in the near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060)and long-term(2081-2100)are analyzed relative to the reference period(1995-2014).In the long term,warming will be significantly higher than the near and *** the long term,annual mean temperature will increase by 1.4℃,1.9℃,3.3℃,5.5℃,2.7℃,3.8℃ and 6.0℃ under SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP4-3.4,SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5,***,warming in the Junggar Basin will be higher than those in the Tarim ***,the maximum warming zone will be in the mountainous areas of Tarim Basin during spring and autumn,in the southern basin during winter,and in the east during *** shows an increasing trend under different SSPs-RCPs in the 21st *** the long term,increase in precipitation will be significantly higher than in the near and *** in annual precipitation in the long term will be 4.1% under SSP1-1.9,13.9% under SSP1-2.6,28.4% under SSP2-4.5, 35.2% under SSP3-7.0, 6.9% under SSP4-3.4, 8.9% under SSP4-6.0, and 27.3% under SSP5-8.5 relative to the reference period of 1995-2014. Spatially, precipitation increase will be higher in the south than the north, especially higher in mountainous regions than the basin under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5.