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Predictable and Unpredictable Components of the Summer East Asia–Pacific Teleconnection Pattern

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第11期35卷 1372-1380页

作者： Xiaozhen LIN Chaofan LI Riyu LU adam a.scaife State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Met Oce Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX1 3PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterDevon EX4 4QF UK

The East Asia–Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern is the dominant mode of circulation variability during boreal summer over the western North Pacific and East Asia, extending from the tropics to high latitudes. However, much of this pattern is absent in multi-model ensemble mean forecasts, characterized by very weak circulation anomalies in the mid and high latitudes. This study focuses on the absence of the EAP pattern in the extratropics, using state-of-the-art coupled seasonal forecast systems. The results indicate that the extratropical circulation is much less predictable, and lies in the large spread among different ensemble members, implying a large contribution from atmospheric internal variability. However,the tropical–mid-latitude teleconnections are also relatively weaker in models than observations, which also contributes to the failure of prediction of the extratropical circulation. Further results indicate that the extratropical EAP pattern varies closely with the anomalous surface temperatures in eastern Russia, which also show low predictability. This unpredictable circulation–surface temperature connection associated with the EAP pattern can also modulate the East Asian rainband.

关键词： EAP pattern circulation seasonal forecast surface temperature eastern Russia

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Preface to the 2nd Special Issue on Climate Science for Service Partnership China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 1939-1940页

作者： adam a.scaife Qingchen CHAO Riyu LU Tianjun ZHOU Peiqun ZHANG Met Office FitzRoy RoadExeterEX13PBUK National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

It is a great pleasure to introduce this second special issue of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences with new highlights from the Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP,scaife et al.,2021)between China and the *** CSSP harnesses expertise in the China Meteorological Administration’s National Climate Centre(CMA NCC),the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP)at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Met Office,plus key UK and Chinese universities and institutes to deliver a vibrant programme of collaborative research.

关键词： Service IAP universities

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Predictability and Risk of Extreme Winter PM_(2.5)Concentration in Beijing

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第5期37卷 632-642页

作者： Jingpeng LIU adam a.scaife Nick DUNSTONE Hong-Li REN Doug SMITH Steven CHARDIMAN Bo WU China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom College of Engineering Mathematicsand Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeter EX44QGUnited Kingdom State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Air pollution remains a serious environmental and social problem in many big cities in the *** to predict and estimate the risk of extreme air pollution is unsettled *** study tries to provide a solution to this challenge by examining the winter PM_(2.5)concentration in Beijing based on the UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes with ENsembles(UNSEEN)*** PM_(2.5)concentration observations in Beijing,Japanese 55-yr reanalysis data,and the Met Office near term climate prediction system(DePreSys3a)large ensemble simulations are used,and 10,000proxy series are generated with the model fidelity *** is found that in Beijing,the main meteorological driver of PM_(2.5)concentration is monthly 850-hPa meridional wind(V850).Although the skill in prediction of V850 is low on seasonal and longer timescales,based on the UNSEEN,we use large ensemble of initialized climate simulations of V850 to estimate the current chance and risk of unprecedented PM_(2.5)concentration in *** unravel that there is a 3%(2.1%–3.9%)chance of unprecedented low monthly V850 corresponding to high PM_(2.5)in each winter,within the 95%range,calculated by bootstrap resampling of the ***,we use the relationship between air quality and winds to remove the meridional wind influence from the observed record,and find that anthropogenic intervention appears to have reduced the risk of extreme PM_(2.5)in Beijing in recent years.

关键词： UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes with ENsembles(UNSEEN) climate risk PM_(2.5) Beijing

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Subseasonal Prediction of Early-summer Northeast Asian Cut-off Lows by BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2127-2134页

作者： Yu NIE Jie WU Jinqing ZUO Hong-Li REN adam a.scaife Nick DUNSTONE Steven C.HARDIMAN China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Institute of Tibetan Plateau&Polar MeteorologyChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100089China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom University of Exeter Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom

Northeast Asian cut-off lows are crucial cyclonic systems that can bring temperature and precipitation extremes over large *** subseasonal forecasting of Northeast Asian cut-off lows is of great *** two dynamical forecasting systems,one from the Beijing Climate Center(BCC-CSM2-HR)and the other from the Met Office(GloSea5),this study assesses simulation ability and subseasonal prediction skill for early-summer Northeast Asian cut-off *** models are shown to have good ability in representing the spatial structure of cut-off lows,but they underestimate the *** skillful prediction time scales for cut-off low intensity are about 10.2 days for BCC-CSM2-HR and 11.4 days for GloSea5 in *** examination shows that both models can essentially capture the initial Rossby wave train,rapid growth and decay processes responsible for the evolution of cut-off lows,but the models show weaker amplitudes for the three-stage *** underestimated simulated strength of both the Eurasian midlatitude and East Asian subtropical jets may lead to the weaker local eddy-mean flow interaction responsible for the cut-off low evolution.

关键词： Northeast Asia cut-off lows subseasonal prediction skill jet stream

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Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第1期37卷 29-41页

作者： Gill M.MARTIN Nick J.DUNSTONE adam a.scaife Philip E.BETT Met Office Exeter

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in *** of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain *** find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI)on monthly time scales,and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional ***,there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted EASMI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall *** interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations,which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale,the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical *** ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.

关键词： forecast skill EASMI monthly mean rainfall East Asian summer monsoon Yangtze River basin

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Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2212-2220,I0013页

作者： Philip E.BETT Gill M.MARTIN Nick DUNSTONE adam a.scaife Hazel E.THORNTON Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterEX44QFUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June,May–June–July(MJJ),and June–July–August(JJA)2020 are presented,based on the Met Office GloSea5 *** three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)index,which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear *** June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of *** forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong,consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three ***,the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period,leading to observed values that lie outside the 95%prediction intervals of the three-month *** forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall,whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast,but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not *** case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian Summer Monsoon

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Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第3期36卷 253-260,339页

作者： Gill M.MARTIN Amulya CHEVUTURI Ruth E.COMER Nick J.DUNSTONE adam a.scaife Daquan ZHANG Met Office Hadley Centre Met Office NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology University of Reading College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter University Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Ni?no and La Ni?na. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.

关键词： SCSSM South China Sea summer monsoon EASM East Asian summer monsoon

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Representation and Predictability of the East Asia-Pacific Teleconnection in the Beijing Climate Center and UK Met Office Subseasonal Prediction Systems

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 941-964页

作者： Jie WU Peiqun ZHANG Lei LI Hong-Li REN Xiangwen LIU adam a.scaife Shuai ZHANG Laboratory far Climate Studies&China Meteorological Administration-Nanjing University Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EXI 3PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK Secretariat of Jiangxi Meteorological Society Nanchang 330096China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China

Based on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis, the East Asia–Pacific(EAP) teleconnection is extracted as the leading mode of the subseasonal variability over East Asia in summer, with a meridional tripole structure and significant periods of 10–30 and 50–70 days. A two-dimensional phase–space diagram is established for the EAP index and its time tendency so as to monitor the real-time state of EAP events. Based on the phase composite analysis, the general circulation anomalies first occur over the high-latitude area of Europe centered near Novaya Zemlya at the beginning of EAP events. These general circulation anomalies then influence rainfall over Northeast China,North China, and the region south of the Yangtze River valley(YRV) as the phases of EAP event progress. The representation, predictability, and prediction skill of the EAP teleconnection are examined in the two fully coupled subseasonal prediction systems of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC) and UK Met Office(UKMO GloSea5). Both models are able to simulate the EAP meridional tripole over East Asia as the leading mode and its characteristics of evolution as well, except for the weaker precursors over Novaya Zemlya and an inconspicuous influence on precipitation over Northeast China. The actual prediction skill of the EAP teleconnection during May–September(MJJAS) is about 10 days in the BCC model and 15 days in the UKMO model based on correlation measures, but is higher when initialized from the EAP peak phases or when targeted on strong EAP scenarios. However, both of the ensemble prediction systems are under-dispersive and the predictable signals extend to 18 and 30 days in BCC and UKMO models based on signal-to-error metrics, indicating that there may be further scope for enhancing the capability of these models for the EAP teleconnection prediction and the associated impacts studies.

关键词： East Asia–Pacific(EAP)teleconnection subseasonal phase–space diagram prediction skill predictability

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Verification of the 2019 GloSea5 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecast for East China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 917-925页

作者： Joanne CAMP Philip E.BETT Nicola GOLDING Chris D.HEWITT Timothy D.MITCHELL adam a.scaife Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 13PBUK University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK

A prototype climate service was developed and trialled in early 2019 to provide seasonal forecast of the June–July–August(JJA) tropical cyclone(TC) landfall risk for the East China region ahead of the forthcoming typhoon *** forecasts were produced in both March and April 2019 and a final forecast was released to the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) on 1 May 2019. The trial service was produced by using the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system(GloSea5), and a forecast of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) index was used to infer the TC landfall risk based on a simple linear regression between historical model WPSH indices and observed TC landfalls in East China. The forecast method shows significant skill for forecasting the JJA TC landfall risk in East China with up to three-month lead time, with the greatest skill for predictions initialized in May. The 2019 forecast provided good guidance of the near-average TC activity observed in East China in JJA 2019. Success of the forecast adds confidence to an improved climate service ahead of the 2020 typhoon season.

关键词： seasonal forecasting typhoons tropical cyclones(TCs) landfall risk East China western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)

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The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2055-2066页

作者： Chaofan LI Riyu LU Nick DUNSTONE adam Ascaife Philip EBETT Fei ZHENG Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterDevon EX44QFUK International Center for Climate and Environment Science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

During June and July of 2020,the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic *** study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event,based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast *** forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin,which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH).Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature(SST)and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH,and the forecasts captured these tropical signals *** explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet(EAJ).The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River ***,the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong *** observations,the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020,which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin,and favor more mei-yu *** model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these *** difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall,hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.

关键词： seasonal forecast Yangtze River rainfall western North Pacific subtropical high westerly jet

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